#Trendspotting: Week 10

Ryan Hester's #Trendspotting: Week 10 Ryan Hester Published 11/07/2019

Reader's Guide

As you read, you may run into some colors in the text. Blue text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players. Red text is a bad matchup. Some other key items are below:

  • All red/blue highlighting in tables is relative to the entire NFL, even when showing a limited number of teams.
  • All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
  • All stats reference the full 2018 season unless otherwise specified.
  • All fantasy points rankings are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks unless otherwise specified.

Announcement

This week, we're trying something different. We're going to be more table-heavy to provide the full picture behind each stat presented. The idea here is to provide you with more data to draw your conclusions. We'll also include the full tables for certain items as appendix sections to the article.

If the data is confusing or overwhelming, check the bottom of the article for how to get a hold of me. Twitter is the best way to get a fast response. E-mail is the better way to ask a longer question.

Of course, when there are action items, those will still be called out as usual.

Follow the Targets

This section will examine which offensive positions have the most success through the air against certain defenses.

Wide Receivers

Below are the top-10 defenses in terms of how often wide receivers are targeted against them.

DEFENSE WR Tgt% WR Rec% WR Yd%
Carolina Panthers 70.1% 66.5% 71.7%
Baltimore Ravens 68.7% 64.2% 69.7%
New England Patriots 68.7% 60.5% 63.9%
Buffalo Bills 66.9% 63.8% 66.3%
San Francisco 49ers 64.4% 58.3% 70.7%
Jacksonville Jaguars 64.3% 59.9% 67.6%
New Orleans Saints 63.2% 55.4% 67.2%
New York Giants 63.0% 62.8% 69.7%
Cleveland Browns 62.0% 57.4% 58.7%

Below are the top-10 offenses in terms of how often these teams target their wide receivers.

OFFENSE WR Tgt% WR Rec% WR Yd%
Los Angeles Rams 66.7% 66.3% 74.9%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 66.4% 64.8% 72.8%
New York Jets 66.4% 63.1% 73.0%
Cincinnati Bengals 65.7% 63.7% 75.0%
Houston Texans 64.7% 66.0% 69.4%
Arizona Cardinals 62.5% 60.6% 61.1%
Cleveland Browns 62.4% 59.4% 69.6%
Miami Dolphins 61.6% 58.8% 65.3%
Seattle Seahawks 61.4% 59.5% 70.0%

Commentary and Action Items

  • Cleveland targets its wide receivers on 62.4% of its passing attempts, the seventh-highest ratio in the NFL.
  • Buffalo opponents target wide receivers 66.9% of their passing attempts, the fourth-highest ratio.
  • The Jets gain 73.0% of their passing yardage via wide receivers, the third-highest ratio.
  • The Giants allow 69.7% of their passing yardage via wide receivers, the fifth-highest ratio.

Typically, Cleveland's WR1 would be a suggested play in this kind of profile, but once again, Odell Beckham will be dealing with an elite cornerback. The presence of TreDavious White makes Jarvis Landry a strong play once again this week.

The process says to trust Jets wide receivers again, but last week makes it difficult. Jamison Crowder led the team in targets by a wide margin last week, so he's the preferred option. But don't forget about Robby Anderson in DFS GPPs due to his deep ball acumen. If you'd rather disregard the Jets entirely, that's advisable as well.

Running Backs

Below are the top-10 defenses in terms of how often running backs are targeted against them.

DEFENSE RB Tgt% RB Rec% RB Yd%
Chicago Bears 25.5% 26.7% 20.2%
Washington Redskins 25.3% 26.7% 20.1%
Cincinnati Bengals 24.9% 28.9% 20.6%
Pittsburgh Steelers 24.4% 25.1% 17.3%
Indianapolis Colts 24.4% 25.8% 16.8%
Tennessee Titans 24.3% 28.0% 18.9%
Kansas City Chiefs 23.8% 25.9% 25.5%
Dallas Cowboys 23.6% 26.9% 19.4%
Philadelphia Eagles 23.2% 26.4% 16.5%

Below are the top-10 offenses in terms of how often these teams target their running backs.

OFFENSE RB Tgt% RB Rec% RB Yd%
Chicago Bears 30.1% 32.8% 21.2%
Los Angeles Chargers 28.4% 36.2% 25.3%
New England Patriots 27.8% 33.0% 28.1%
Denver Broncos 26.2% 31.7% 20.0%
New Orleans Saints 26.0% 29.6% 21.1%
Green Bay Packers 25.5% 31.7% 24.7%
Minnesota Vikings 25.3% 27.0% 19.4%
Pittsburgh Steelers 24.5% 34.1% 24.5%
Washington Redskins 23.2% 26.3% 23.8%

Tight Ends

Below are the top-10 defenses in terms of how often tight ends are targeted against them.

DEFENSE TE Tgt% TE Rec% TE Yd%
Kansas City Chiefs 28.0% 28.9% 23.5%
Minnesota Vikings 27.0% 26.5% 23.3%
Indianapolis Colts 26.4% 25.8% 22.7%
Arizona Cardinals 26.1% 27.6% 30.1%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25.3% 26.8% 27.1%
Denver Broncos 24.3% 24.7% 23.8%
Dallas Cowboys 24.3% 26.3% 27.2%
Green Bay Packers 24.0% 25.8% 21.6%
Chicago Bears 23.1% 25.7% 27.3%

Below are the top-10 offenses in terms of how often these teams target their tight ends.

OFFENSE Photos provided by Imagn Images