#Trendspotting: Week 9

Ryan Hester's #Trendspotting: Week 9 Ryan Hester Published 10/31/2019

Reader's Guide

As you read, you may run into some colors in the text. Blue text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players. Red text is a bad matchup. Some other key items are below:

  • All red/blue highlighting in tables is relative to the entire NFL, even when showing a limited number of teams.
  • All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
  • All stats reference the full 2018 season unless otherwise specified.
  • All fantasy points rankings are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks unless otherwise specified.

This week, we'll discuss the following topics:

Funnel Watch

This section will examine the defenses that are strong against the run but weak against the pass and those strong against the pass but weak against the run.

Team PaYd/Gm RuYd/Gm NYd/Att Yd/Rush PassYd% RushYd%
Oakland Raiders 285.3 92.9 7.8 3.7 75.4% 24.6%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 285.9 68.6 6.7 3.0 80.7% 19.3%
Houston Texans 276.8 85.4 6.8 4.1 76.4% 23.6%
Baltimore Ravens 265.4 84.3 7.1 4.3 75.9% 24.1%
New York Jets 262.6 94.9 6.7 3.3 73.5% 26.5%
Philadelphia Eagles 256.1 90.5 6.6 3.9 73.9% 26.1% 
"PaYd/Gm" = passing yards per game
"RuYd/Gm" = rushing yards per game
"NYd/Att" = net yards per pass attempt (factors in sack yardage)
"Yd/Rush" = yards per carry
"PassYd%" = the percentage of the team's total yardage allowed that comes via the pass
"RushYd%" = the percentage of the team's total yardage allowed that comes via the rush

Commentary

The defenses above are in the top one-third of the league in passing yards per game allowed and the bottom one-third of the league in rushing yards per game allowed.

  • Detroit gains 75.4% of its total yardage via the pass, the sixth-highest ratio in the NFL.
  • Oakland allows 75.4% of its total yardage via the pass, the fourth-highest ratio.
  • Seattle averages 7.5 net yards per pass attempt, the fourth-highest average in the NFL.
  • Tampa Bay allows 80.7% of its total yardage via the pass, the highest ratio.
  • New England runs 70.5 offensive plays per game, second-most in the NFL.
  • Baltimore runs 70.8 offensive plays per game, most in the NFL.
  • New England gains 74.2% of its total yardage via the pass, the seventh-highest ratio.
  • Baltimore allows 75.9% of its total yardage via the pass, the third-highest ratio.

Action Items

Noting funnel defenses is helpful, but when offenses capable of passing are facing those defenses, the possibilities are exciting. Detroit (at Oakland), New England (at Baltimore), and Seattle (vs. Tampa Bay) all qualify.

Matthew Stafford and Tom Brady top-five potential in season-long leagues, and Russell Wilson could be the week's top overall quarterback.

Team PaYd/Gm RuYd/Gm NYd/Att Yd/Rush PassYd% RushYd%
Carolina Panthers 215.1 135.1 5.2 5.0 61.4% 38.6%
Los Angeles Chargers 217.4 122.8 7.3 4.2 63.9% 36.1%
Cleveland Browns 222.1 143.3 6.3 4.8 60.8% 39.2%
Kansas City Chiefs 232.0 145.0 6.0 4.9 61.5% 38.5% 
"PaYd/Gm" = passing yards per game
"RuYd/Gm" = rushing yards per game
"NYd/Att" = net yards per pass attempt (factors in sack yardage)
"Yd/Rush" = yards per carry
"PassYd%" = the percentage of the team's total yardage allowed that comes via the pass
"RushYd%" = the percentage of the team's total yardage allowed that comes via the rush

Commentary

The defenses above are in the top one-third of the league in rushing yards per game allowed and the bottom one-third of the league in passing yards per game allowed.

  • Minnesota runs on 47.7% of its neutral-script plays, the seventh-highest ratio in the NFL.
  • Kansas City faces a run on 50.8% of its neutral-script plays, the highest ratio in the NFL.
  • Minnesota averages 4.9 yards per rush attempt, the fourth-highest average.
  • Kansas City allows 4.9 yards per rush attempt, the third-highest average.
  • Minnesota gains 40.9% of its total yardage via the run, the third-highest ratio.
  • Kansas City allows 38.5% of its total yardage via the run, the sixth-highest ratio.

Action Items

Unlike the pass funnel section above, the offenses opposing these teams don't show as much on-paper capability of exploiting them. Dalvin Cook is the one exception. He could be the week's top overall running back, but it's going to be difficult to fit his price under the cap in DFS.

[return to top]

Strengths and Weaknesses

This section will dissect how offenses gain their yards and how defenses allow them.

Passing
Offensive Team PaYd% Rank Defensive Team PaYd% Rank Avg. %
Kansas City Chiefs 78.9% 4 Minnesota Vikings 71.5% 23 75.2%
New England Patriots 74.2% 7 Baltimore Ravens 75.9% 30 75.1%
Detroit Lions 74.5% 6 Oakland Raiders 75.4% 29 75.0%
Miami Dolphins 74.2% 8 New York Jets 73.5% 27 73.8%
Los Angeles Chargers 80.2% 3 Green Bay Packers 67.0% 12 73.6% 
"PaYd%" = the percentage of a team's yards gained or allowed via the pass
"Rank" = the ranking of that percentage among NFL teams
(for offenses, 1 is the highest percentage; for defenses, 32 is the highest percentage)
"Avg. %" = the average of both "PaYd%" figures
(the higher the number, the more passing yardage we can expect for the offense)

Commentary

  • New England passes on 63.5% of its neutral-script plays, the seventh-highest ratio in the NFL.
  • Baltimore faces a pass on 61.4% of its neutral-script plays, the 12th-highest ratio.
  • Detroit scores 53.3% of its points via passing touchdowns, the third-highest ratio.
  • Oakland allows 59.4% of its points via passing touchdowns, the second-highest ratio.

Action Items

If the "How Will They Score" section from last week was appearing here again, it would show Detroit with 13.67 projected passing points, the highest such figure in the league this week. Both Stafford and Derek Carr are in play this week as QB1 selections in season-long leagues and in DFS. Stafford is cash game-viable, though I'd prefer Wilson for not much more price. Carr is a GPP play.

Rushing
Offensive Team RuYd% Rank Defensive Team RuYd% Rank Avg. %
Baltimore Ravens 46.9% 1 New England Patriots 36.4% 26 41.7%
Minnesota Vikings 40.4% 3 Kansas City Chiefs 38.5% 27 39.4%
San Francisco 49ers 46.8% 2 Arizona Cardinals 32.0% 20 39.4%
Arizona Cardinals 34.0% 12 San Francisco 49ers 42.6% 32 38.3%
Denver Broncos 35.2% 11 Cleveland Browns 39.2% 30 37.2% 
"RuYd%" = the percentage of a team's yards gained or allowed via the rush
"Rank" = the ranking of that percentage among NFL teams
(for offenses, 1 is the highest percentage; for defenses, 32 is the highest percentage)
"Avg. %" = the average of both "RuYd%" figures
(the higher the number, the more rushing yardage we can expect for the offense)

Commentary

  • Minnesota scores 34.1%% of its points via rushing touchdowns, the fourth-highest ratio.
  • Kansas City allows 33.1% of its points via rushing touchdowns, the fifth-highest ratio.
  • Based on the "How Will They Score" exercise, Minnesota is projected for 8.58 rushing points this week, most in the NFL.

[return to top]

Volume vs. Touchdowns

Touchdowns are the biggest factor in fantasy football scoring, but they're also the most unpredictable. Snaps, touches, and yards are more predictive of future value than touchdowns. Therefore, this section will look at players in the top-36 at wide receiver and running back and the top-24 at quarterback and examine what percentage of their fantasy points come from touchdowns.

The intent here is to identify players with positive touchdown regression forthcoming.

This week, we're showing both sides of possible regression. The players with lower percentages in the "TD FP%" column are those potentially due for some positive touchdown regression.

Those with high numbers in that column have accumulated a high portion of their fantasy points via touchdowns, suggesting that they might decrease their touchdown production in the near future.

Wide Receivers
Player Tgts Tgt% Rec ReYd Photos provided by Imagn Images
Share This Article