Here we are again this year, back for more NFL picks. It is with great pleasure that I take the reins from Jeff Pasquino after writing a guest edition last year. As someone who has won and lost their fair share of money on the NFL (and many other sports), this is bound to be a fun and unpredictable ride. Join me, won’t you?
As with the format in previous years, this article will help those of you who compete in confidence pools and in ranking selections, which may come in handy on those Las Vegas trips. Games are rated based on preference for both the point spread and other angles (such as totals or over/unders) with 1-3 “Stars”, which basically highlight the best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars are not preferred one way or the other, but will still be covered, discussed and a winner will be predicted for those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools.
It proved to be a strong week for the picks last week, a 10-3 record lifting my own spirits as well as those among you who followed my advice. Week 11 has thrown up a few lines that surprised, but overall this appears to be a slate that brims with opportunity and potential profits. Teasers, in particular, should be entertained this week, with many heavy home favorites, as well as some road favorites – Kansas City comes to mind – that are worth a punt.
The bye teams this week are the Packers, Giants, Seahawks, and Titans.
Note that the over/unders are taken from VegasInsider.com
(Thursday) PITTSBURGH at CLEVELAND (-3) (Over/Under 40.5)
Make no bones about it: The Browns salvaged their season with that heart-pounding victory over the Bills. While it would be premature to say the men by Lake Erie have rediscovered their mojo, it is certainly not too much to say they have a chance – a glimmer, yes, but a chance to make the postseason. It starts this week with an elimination game of sorts against division rivals Pittsburgh. With the entire football world watching, will Cleveland be able to rally and get back to 4-6? It will be tough work against a Pittsburgh defense that is singlehandedly winning games.
Minkah Fitzpatrick is a big reason why. The player many panned the Steelers for giving up a first-round pick to acquire is a turnover-forcing machine. His instincts are elite, and he has the ball skills to back them up. Baker Mayfield will have to take good care of the ball in what Vegas is predicting to be a low-scoring affair. Exploiting Mason Rudolph’s deficiencies is the easiest path to victory for the Browns. And yet, it would be unwise to let last week’s heroics cloud things too much. The Steelers are still the better team and know what needs to be done on prime time.
Pick: Pittsburgh
ATLANTA at CAROLINA (-6) (Over/Under 50.5)
Not one person predicted the Falcons storming the Superdome last week and so convincingly extracting the life out of that vibrant stadium. Not one. Such is life in the NFL; you think you know, only to be walloped over the head with the many things you don’t know and never will. Teams can find it difficult to get up for the game after their ‘circle the wagons’ win, so it will be fascinating to see how Atlanta responds. With Matt Ryan, this team always has a chance and should fancy their chances to establish the run against a Carolina defense that was sieve-like in their run-stopping last week. These NFC South tilts tend to be wild affairs; this one should be no different.
For the Panthers, it will be all about rallying the troops after a bitter defeat that came up just a yard short, much like their loss to the Bucs at Bank of America Stadium earlier in the season. That loss was swiftly followed by four consecutive wins. This is only the third divisional game of the season for Carolina, who will bring their ‘A’ game against their old enemy. If this turns into a shootout, Ryan is the quarterback who can get the job done or, if not, keep it close.
Pick: Atlanta
DALLAS (-2.5) at DETROIT (Over/Under 51)
Matthew Stafford has broken bones in his back. Let that sink in for a moment. This is not an injury to be trifled with, even for one of the league’s most durable and tough-minded quarterbacks. Stafford famously won a game on the final play years ago, clutching his shoulder after throwing a touchdown pass. To risk his long-term health here, however, would be unwise in a season that is petering out for the Lions. In his second season as head coach, Matt Patricia’s seat is warming up, but the likelihood is that Jeff Driskel will get the starting nod.
The Cowboys conspired to lose to the Vikings in a game that was there for the taking. Many observers panned the conservatism of head coach Jason Garrett in key fourth-down situations, robbing the red-hot offense of opportunities to extend drives and turn punts or three-pointers into touchdowns. The Lions will not be able to muster an effort like that of their division rival Minnesota, especially not on the ground. The game script here will favor Dallas getting out to a big lead and pummelling away at the Lions in the second half. Expect Ezekiel Elliott to be fed after a quiet outing last week.
Pick: Dallas
JACKSONVILLE at INDIANAPOLIS (-2.5) (Over/Under 44)
Nick Foles makes his grand return this week after an absence that has felt longer than it was – 10 weeks in all. Such is life in the NFL; the week to week churn has a way of making us forget. Jacksonville fans could be forgiven for forgetting about the quarterback their team signed in the offseason to be the franchise steadier, if not saviour. Gardner Minshew, the mustachioed hero who has breathed new life into the offense, despite some rookie mistakes, had a lot to do with that fan amnesia. The bye came at a good time for this team after an embarrassing loss in London. Now, faced with another divisional game, it is put up or shut up time.
Indianapolis will be licking their wounds after a devastating defeat at home last week to the Dolphins, whose plucky play and gritty camaraderie were too much for the flailing home team. The return of Jacoby Brissett will mean smoother sailing for the offense, but the absence of T.Y. Hilton continues to be a major drawback to their upside as an offense – and as a team. This defense is still developing chemistry and has many young players, so to expect week-to-week dominance isn’t realistic. Still, the feeling is they are capable of more. At home in a must-win game against a quarterback coming off an injury – this is an excellent spot for a Colts bounce-back game.
Pick: Indianapolis
BUFFALO (-6) at MIAMI (Over/Under 39)
Under Sean McDermott, the Bills have covered 60% (12-8-1) of the time as the away team, but six points seems a little bit generous considering the recent struggles of the western New York team. Josh Allen attempted four passes in the red zone last week; all fell incomplete and contributed to a poor road performance. It is almost as if the Bills, knowing Allen may not be the long-term answer, are asking him to test his limits. That way, if he fails, the Bills brass can honestly say they evaluated him fully. Defensively, Buffalo will be keen to find their early-season mojo which had them among the ranks of the elite units in the league.
Don’t look now, but the Dolphins are on a winning streak. In fact, they own the longest active winning streak in the AFC East at two games. Not too shabby, Brian Flores. Not too shabby at all. The Bills come to town as heavy favorites, but the men from Miami shouldn’t be intimidated – as long as Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn’t turn in a disastrous, turnover-strewn performance, which is always possible. In last week’s game Fitzpatrick went almost 30 minutes without throwing for a first down, a formula he can’t afford to repeat. The Dolphins defense will need a turnover or two from Allen to keep this manageable, but they look like a decent underdog to back.
Pick: Miami
HOUSTON at BALTIMORE (-4.5) (Over/Under 50)
The MVP chants for Lamar Jackson are justified. The way this kid is rewriting the rules of the quarterback position is quite something to behold. There are things he does on a football field that make the opposition look like a bunch of drunk babies trying to chase him. Waxing lyrical about Jackson’s talents has been commonplace, but it should be; this is a special player. Vegas, perhaps in a nod to the Texans’ talents, have made this a 4.5-point game in Baltimore’s favor. In my initial guesses of the lines, I made it seven. This line is likely to increase as the game nears, so jump on now if you are a Ravens backer.
Deshaun Watson shouldn’t be glossed over, of course. Only two weeks ago in London, the plays he made had jaws dropping across the football world. Defenders were left dumbstruck as Watson shimmied and shook out of would-be sacks, completing improbable passes for fun. Houston has covered 47.1% of the time as the away underdog under Bill O’Brien, nothing to write home about. While Houston’s offense can keep pace, one has to wonder how effective their defense will be against Jackson. I think we’ll hear MVP chants again on Sunday – and they won’t be for Watson.
Pick: Baltimore
DENVER at MINNESOTA (-10) (Over/Under 38.5)
Denver is propping up the AFC West and looks like a team already with one eye on next season. Drew Lock, the rookie quarterback John Elway placed a chip on in the NFL Draft, isn’t ready to be thrown into the fray yet. Brandon Allen will get the start against a ferocious Minnesota defense that will throw some looks at him that will have him dazed and confused. As such, the 10-point line for this game looks realistic, perhaps even not extreme enough.
Kirk Cousins will be keen to continue his hot streak. To this point in the season, he has 18 touchdowns and just three interceptions, while his overall level of play has been very solid. The doubters will continue to lambast Cousins for whatever half-baked reason, but the eye in the sky doesn’t lie. Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison have formed a formidable tandem capable of ripping the Broncos’ decent defense to shreds. The Vikings should roll here and take one step closer to a playoff berth.
Pick: Minnesota
NY JETS at WASHINGTON (-1.5) (Over/Under 38)
It’s the 2-7 Jets taking on the 1-8 Redskins – and the only reason the result is important, realistically, is to decide draft position. Honestly, we may look back on this game and say "If not for this game, Team X wouldn’t have missed out on Can’t-Miss Prospect Y". This is a classic example of Vegas oddsmakers throwing up their hands in the air, with the home team 1.5-point favorites just because. The fact the Jets, who have Sam Darnold at quarterback, are not the favorites against the Dwayne Haskins-led Redskins is concerning for Gang Green.
The Washington formula will be transparent: run the ball, run it often and run it effectively. Whether they will be able to execute that strategy is another question entirely. The Jets defense showed some pride last week, with Jamal Adams playing the game of his life to rip out the heart of the Giants. It remains to be seen whether the Jets can get up for an inferior opponent on the road. Adams can’t win the game by himself, and as Daniel Jones showed, the Jets defense is severely lacking in any bite.
Pick: Washington
NEW ORLEANS (-5) at TAMPA BAY (Over/Under 51.5)
At 7-2, it is not time for the Saints to press the panic button (do they even have one of those in New Orleans?) – or not yet, anyway. Still, as some of the best football minds have pointed out: Drew Brees hasn’t been the same since the tail end of last season. The downfield threats are simply not winning, and Brees is often more than happy to check the ball down. It is possible the thumb is still on his mind and he is holding back slightly, but nobody knows for sure. The Saints are still in the box seat, but a more mature effort across the board will be required in their second straight divisional game.
The Bucs and Bruce Arians, meanwhile, will be smelling blood. If the Falcons can have their way with the Saints defense in the Superdome, the Bucs will fancy their chances to do the same in Raymond James. Jameis Winston is frustrating to watch at times, but his ceiling is higher than most quarterbacks’ and one could argue he has a better skill position group. The last meeting of these teams this season ended with a narrow Saints victory. Five points seems like an early Christmas present here in an outdoor game for New Orleans, where they struggle the most.
Pick: Tampa Bay
ARIZONA at SAN FRANCISCO (-13.5) (Over/Under 45.5)
The Cardinals could be walking straight into an ambush, though the spot looks better for Kliff Kingsbury’s team than it did on Sunday. With the 49ers playing a grueling overtime period against bitter rivals Seattle in a game that had the intensity of an NFC Championship affair, one could forgive the home team for lacking a little pep. Arizona challenged the San Francisco defense two weeks ago like few other teams have this season, balancing run and pass efficiently. A repeat could be difficult, but it’s certainly not impossible.
As for the 49ers, the short week will not be such a drain on them considering they have another home game on the cards. However, their confidence – previously sky-high – might have come down to earth after the loss to the Seahawks, a loss that puts them at a disadvantage in the playoff race. Kyle Shanahan will be stressing to his players not to let the defeat linger and to banish the demons against a beatable opponent. The script looks promising for a bounce back, but 13.5 points is simply too many to lay.
Pick: Arizona
CINCINNATI at OAKLAND (-10) (Over/Under 48.5)
The Bengals are locked in at the number one pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, a position that was cemented further by wins from the Jets and Dolphins, previously one-win teams. To say Cincinnati is without a pulse would be overly generous; they are simply adrift, unable to muster much of a challenge to any opponent. It is not as if their talent is far inferior; rather, it is just a plethora of almosts, what-ifs, and other misfortunes that have doomed them. With Ryan Finley in at quarterback, the rest of the season is all about development and evaluating the players who will be on the roster in 2020 and beyond.
Jon Gruden, meanwhile, is living large with his Raiders very much in the frame for a wildcard spot in the AFC – or even a division title if things break right. The Chiefs are just one game ahead in the standings – though, it should be noted, they currently hold the tiebreaker. There is a sense of optimism around Oakland that hasn’t infested these parts in a few years. The offense is a terror to deal with, especially on the ground, and the defense is a pugilistic unit, throwing left and right hooks at opportune times. If this line goes out to 10.5, jump on it quickly. The Bengals have the horses to keep it within that score, with a late-game cover a strong possibility.
Pick: Cincinnati
NEW ENGLAND (-3.5) at PHILADELPHIA (Over/Under 45)
The titanic clash of the late window without a doubt. These teams only play once every four years, their last meeting in Philadelphia a long eight years ago. Of course, the last time they met was in the Super Bowl, the game that turned Nick Foles from a plucky underdog into a franchise hero. This time around it will be Carson Wentz at the helm for the Eagles, who got a nice boost last week with Dallas’ loss in prime time. Suddenly the NFC East rivals are tied at the top of the division – and it is all to play for. Philadelphia’s consistency has been desperately lacking this season, with blowout losses to the Cowboys and Vikings offset by impressive wins over the likes of Green Bay and Buffalo, both on the road. Finding their rhythm down the stretch will be key to securing a playoff place.
The Patriots put their feet up last week and would have enjoyed what they witnessed. The Chiefs lost in heart-breaking fashion, reducing the chance of the dreaded Arrowhead clash against Patrick Mahomes II and company. The Bills lost as well, keeping them at arm’s length in the division. The only downside for the Patriots was the surging Ravens, but Bill Belichick won’t pay any mind with an opponent like Philadelphia to prepare for. Since 2003, the Patriots are 17-10-1 (63%) against the spread off their bye week, a large enough sample size to be significant. It is obvious that New England need stability on their offensive line, but the Eagles pass rush isn’t the most fearsome unit. The smart money here is, as usual, on the Patriots at just -3.5.
Pick: New England
(Sunday Night) CHICAGO at LA RAMS (-6.5) (Over/Under 40)
Prior to the season, the Sunday Night Football executives at NBC would have been rubbing their hands together at the prospect of this game. It’s the Bad News Bears, it’s the sexy Rams with their high-flying passing attack. It’s an unstoppable force against an immovable object. It’s… not any of those things. The Bears defense has predictably regressed – oh Fangio, how they miss you – while the offense has been in turns dire, confusing and regrettable. Mitchell Trubisky produced a decent display last week to keep his job – for now – but things could change quickly. An implosion on Sunday night with the world watching is in play.
The Rams offense ain’t what she used to be, but it is still capable of taking advantage of inferior opponents. Recall, however, last season’s debacle for the Rams in Chicago when the Bears defense took them to school, taught them a harsh lesson and slammed Jared Goff into the rock-hard Soldier Field turf more times than he could count. Granted, Vegas making the Rams 6.5-point favorites might seem a little steep, but this ultimately comes down to trust. The Rams have earned more of that.
Pick: Los Angeles
(Monday Night) KANSAS CITY (-4) at LA CHARGERS (Over/Under 52.5)
The Chiefs under Andy Reid boast the best record in the league as road favorites since 2013, going 20-11 (64.5%) against the spread over that period. Keep in mind most of those years were without Patrick Mahomes II. The loss to the Titans will sting this team, but they now have their winning formula clear in their minds: it’s offense, offense, and more offense. Asking Mahomes to throw 50+ passes in his first game back after dislocating his kneecap wasn’t on the cards, I would assume, but he should get used to it. This Chiefs defense is fragile and liable to give up 30+ points in any given week.
Indeed, the Chargers will be scouting the Chiefs defense this week and nodding appreciatively at their ineptitude. With how hot Melvin Gordon has been running recently, this could be just the game to let Philip Rivers take a backseat and give Gordon the keys. This is the last chance for Los Angeles to get back into the frame for the playoffs, so a high-scoring affair is in store. It’s a bit of a toss-up, but the Chiefs get the slight nod.
Pick: Kansas City
BEST BETS
Once again this year this article will give out not only the Best Bets but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 Star scale. The more stars, the bigger the emphasis on that side of the game.
Though we may have more clarity after the season’s midway point, the challenges keep coming as the lines get sharper. Week 10 proved to be a successful one for yours truly, but now is not the time to get too high on the horse. With a lot of efficient lines this week – and few open to teasers – we are going to focus on the best spreads:
- 1 BALTIMORE (-4.5) vs. HOUSTON
- 2 DALLAS (-2.5) at DETROIT
- 3 NEW ENGLAND (-3.5) at PHILADELPHIA
- 4 TAMPA BAY (+5) vs. NEW ORLEANS
With these likes in mind, here are the Week 11 selections:
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- 2-TEAM SPREAD BET (2.5-1 ODDS)
- NEW ENGLAND (-3.5)
- TAMPA BAY (+5)
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- 3-TEAM SPREAD BET (5.67-1 ODDS):
- DALLAS (-2.5)
- NEW ENGLAND (-3.5)
- TAMPA BAY (+5)
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- 2-TEAM SPREAD BET (2.5-1 ODDS)
- BALTIMORE (-4.5)
- DALLAS (-2.5)
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Dallas, Baltimore, New England, Tampa Bay, Indianapolis
RESULTS
Last Week / Season
- LAST WEEK: 10-3
- SEASON OVERALL: 80-68 (54%)
- BEST BETS: 19-18 (51.3%), last week 3-1
- PICK OF THE WEEK: 27-18 (56.25%), last week 4-1
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to larkin@footballguys.com
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