Lie Detector Test: How to Sniff Out Coachspeak

Ryan Hester's Lie Detector Test: How to Sniff Out Coachspeak Ryan Hester Published 08/22/2019

Quotes from coaches, players, and front-office types are a significant portion of the analysis that help us fantasy GMs project performance, rank players, and gain an edge on our opponents. But sometimes, the people making those quotes are expressing an intention rather than a likely reality; sometimes they're telling half-lies to motivate players; and other times, they're flat out lying to gain leverage in a certain situation.

The goal of this article is to provide three examples to prove to fantasy GMs that there is often much more beneath the surface of every news blurb they read.

Plan vs. Practice

On Wednesday afternoon, an article was published where Pittsburgh offensive coordinator Randy Fichtner said this about Vance McDonald’s projected playing time:

"He still won't. He's never going to play the full game. That's never going to happen."

Aside from the fact that article never divulges the actual question asked that yielded this response, there are reasons why we shouldn't be taking the fire extinguisher to the smoldering fire that is McDonald's fantasy prospects.

Pittsburgh threw 675 passes last season. Those targets were distributed as shown below:

Position Targets Share %
WR 446 66.1%
TE 120 17.8%
RB 110 16.3%

Of the 120 tight end targets, 112 were to McDonald and Jesse James. James has now left town and been replaced by Xavier Grimble, a player with 22 catches who has played on three teams.

The positional target distribution won't be the same with Antonio Brown gone (he saw 169 Pittsburgh's 221 vacated targets). Pittsburgh's target distribution will change. Their pass attempts are also likely to decline, so instead of 675, the table below assumes 600.

Position Share % Proj. Targets
WR 60.0% 360
TE 20.0% 120
RB 20.0% 120

Considering Grimble's history, assuming that McDonald will see the vast majority of the tight end targets is reasonable. Below is a table showing conservative and high-end bounds for McDonald's share of tight end targets and the overall tight end target share in the offense.

McDonald Receives: Overall TE Target Distribution Proj. Targets
75% of the TE targets 20% of team targets (120 total) 75% of 120 = 90
75% of the TE targets 25% of team targets (150 total) 75% of 150 = 113
85% of the TE targets 20% of team targets (120 total) 85% of 120 = 102
85% of the TE targets 25% of team targets (150 total) 85% of 150 = 128

McDonald saw 73 targets in 2018. Even with the drop to 600 attempts and McDonald seeing only 15% of the team's targets, he'll see an increase of one target per game (17 total). There is also a path to many more (a higher overall share, more team pass attempts, more of the vacated targets going to tight ends).

#NarrativeStreet

Roethlisberger's window is closing. In close games, the best laid plans for snap counts will take a back seat to having the best players on the field. Another angle is that Fichtner could be taking this approach due to McDonald's injury history. The counter-arguments to that are easy:

Bottom line: McDonald will be a part of this passing game. 100 or more targets for him wouldn't be a surprise. Only five tight ends cracked triple-digit targets last year.

August 26 Update: McDonald played all but one snap quarterbacked by Roethlisberger in the team's third preseason game. He won't get 95% snap rates every week, but he'll certainly get higher than 50%.

A Blip on the Radar

Damien Williams was considered an RB1 until a hamstring injury early in camp. Fantasy GMs went into "wait-and-see" mode, but Andy Reid dropped the following quote in an August 9 interview:

"Kind of a running back by committee deal and we had some success with it. We'll do that here. ... They all have their strengths and we'll try to exploit their strengths there."

Since this quote, a few notable things have occurred:

  1. Carlos Hyde practiced with the first team initially.
  2. Hyde looked sluggish in Preseason Week 1.
  3. Darwin Thompson was explosive in practice and Preseason Week 1.
  4. Williams got healthy and returned to practice as the RB1 (see tweet below).
  5. The team used Williams creatively and Hyde in a limited fashion in Preseason Week 2 (Hyde also fumbled).
  6. Team reporters have suggested that Hyde won't make the team and that Thompson has surpassed Hyde on the depth chart.

So the facts are as follows:

  • Williams was excellent as the bell-cow back at the end of last season
  • Hyde has been on three teams in a year
  • Thompson is the kind of player a creative offense will utilize
  • It's likely Williams' primary backup is a sixth-round rookie (Thompson)

Why are we doubting Williams as a bell-cow running back?

Bottom line: draft both Williams and Thompson. Williams has RB1 upside; Thompson has flex appeal and RB1 upside if Williams misses time. Laugh at the person who drafts Hyde.

August 26 update: Williams appears to be the clear starter...

...and he's capable of doing things like this.

Don't Let Facts Interfere with the Narrative

Jerry Jones recently had a quote on rookie running back Tony Pollard.

"We know he's inordinately understanding of what he does and can do...he's capable of, if he really needs to, carrying the whole load."

First of all, who talks like this? Who says "inordinately understanding of what he does?" Second, the phrase "carrying the load" is far too intentional. Members of the Dallas media saw the quote for what is was: posturing in the ongoing standoff between Jones and Ezekiel Elliott.

But preseason hype happens all the time, for plenty of reasons. So who's to say Pollard can't be a workhorse running back? Considering he was a slot receiver/running back combo as recently as last year, workhorse status feels like a stretch. Pollard's college touches:

  • 2016: 31 carries, 29 receptions
  • 2017: 30 carries, 36 receptions
  • 2018: 78 carries, 39 receptions

Sure, Darrell Henderson was on the same Memphis team. But Henderson only had 214 rushes. Pollard's 78 were a distant third to another Memphis running back (Patrick Taylor Jr.) who also had 200+ carries.

Bottom line: Pollard logged just 14% of his run-first college team's running back carries last season. He's not carrying the load for Dallas. He has the potential to be a special player, but he's not a workhorse running back. He'll be hard to project as a weekly RB1 if Elliott misses time.

Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail hester@footballguys.com

Photos provided by Imagn Images
Share This Article