Why You Should Rush to Draft Lamar Jackson

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Why Lamar Jackson is a League-Winner in 2019

• Jackson’s 2018 rushing production was unlike any we’ve ever seen. Forget about Michael Vick and Cam Newton; Jackson squeezed full-on RB1 production into his weekly fantasy lines. He’s raw as a passer but would fit as a QB2 even if he didn’t throw a pass all year.
• On that front, there’s reason to expect at least some uptick in passing production. Barring injury, even league-average air numbers would land Jackson high among the QB1 ranks in fantasy. Jackson improved as a passer throughout his career at Louisville, and the Ravens have prioritized their passing game with off-season moves.
• Quarterbacks with far less fantasy upside are being drafted ahead of him. Guys like Philip Rivers and Jimmy Garoppolo project to top out around 300 fantasy points, a mark Jackson could blow by even with a shaky year. And Jackson is coming considerably cheaper. Quarterback rushing is just that impactful.

If I Was Ever Going Somewhere, I Was Running

It’s early in Jackson’s career, and the story on his passing proficiency is yet to be written. But at this point, Jackson’s 2019 value – to the Ravens, to fantasy players, to the game of football itself – lies almost entirely within his feet. His arm and pocket skills can be questioned, but his open-field athleticism sits on an elite level. Not since Michael Vick have we seen Jackson’s pure, game-breaking ability as an improviser who can erupt out of the pocket – and never has it been seen on this level of usage and volume.

That's Jackson up top, lapping the field by running the ball on nearly a quarter of Baltimore snaps. Any player taking 17 rushes a game is a strong fantasy consideration. Jackson didn’t throw much at all over his seven starts but still landed as the fantasy QB6 through that span. Even if he hadn’t thrown a single pass, he still would’ve finished QB20. Quarterback rushing has long been a massive (yet still underrated) fantasy boon to the position, but Jackson’s 2018 suggested a whole new plane of it.

For reference’s sake: in 2018, a quarterback who ran for 1,039 yards and ten touchdowns would’ve landed QB20 without throwing a single pass.

So, How DO WE ACCURATELY Project His Rushing TOTALS?

It’s unrealistic, for many reasons, to project another 17 rushes a game for Jackson. That kind of workload would keep his passing development handcuffed, and the Ravens certainly want to see what his arm is capable of. Not to mention, the injury and fatigue risks of squeezing your franchise quarterback into a RB1’s job are considerable.

Still, it’s hard to expect too much shift in his volume. The Ravens will likely run more often than any other team in 2019, as they did once Jackson took over in Week 11. Jackson looked startlingly raw as a rookie passer, and the team turned around a lost season under that “run-run-throw short” approach. New coordinator Greg Roman has long been a strong run-game proponent, with all six of his offenses finishing top-nine in attempts. The Jackson-led Ravens finished 2018 on pace for 722 rushes, and while that number will shrink somewhat, it’ll stay very prominent if the team is playoff-minded.

The real issue, then, is to pin down Jackson's share of the team's rushing attempts. As the team’s 2018 starter, he took on 38% of team rushes, but the Ravens have assembled a wide array of runners (Jackson, Mark Ingram, Gus Edwards, Kenneth Dixon, rookie Justice Hill) to carry the load together. It makes more sense to ease Jackson’s projected share down near 30% for the coming year.

30% of 600 rushes (or more) would make for a dazzling fantasy season. In that low-ball scenario, Jackson’s ground production would approximate 900 yards and a plenty of touchdown opportunities. In other words, about the same fantasy values as an extra 2,000 passing yards and 10-12 passing touchdowns.

But Can He Throw? Like, at All?

Jackson will throw the ball some, of course, so that QB20 range from above acts as an absolute floor. Over 16 projected starts (an iffy proposition, of course), it’s inconceivable that Jackson would finish anywhere below that level. Understanding that floor is the first crucial step in valuing running quarterbacks, but the real work comes in sniffing out his ceiling. That will ultimately be determined by just how much Jackson is allowed to throw in 2019, and just how effective he’s able to be when doing it.

If his rookie year is any indicator, the answer to both those questions is “not much.” Jackson got off just 22.6 passes per start, third-fewest of any regular starter in the modern era of football. (Yes, even Tebow threw more often as the Broncos starter in 2011.) In fact, Baltimore instituted an offensive sea change when Jackson took over the reins in Week 11:

Once Jackson stepped in, the Ravens “turtled up” in historic fashion. They drastically shortened their offensive attack in the second half, moving virtually every chip in on the ground game. And in their do-or-die playoff matchup, Jackson dropped back on just 12 of 34 snaps before falling behind 20-3.

There’s no doubt the Ravens had very limited expectations for Jackson as a rookie passer. That will almost certainly shift in Year 2, but to what degree? Can fantasy players expect passing numbers that are useful and elevating, rather than just there?

If Jackson’s arm is going to be used any further, it will have to be much more efficient than it was in 2018. The book on Jackson as a passer has always been shaky, and all of his collegiate red flags were front and center last year. Handcuffed and unsure in the pocket, Jackson struggled with reads and reacting, sticking to short, open throws almost entirely. His downfield efficiency was poor (23^rd among 34 qualifiers in adjusted yards per attempt) and he held onto the ball too long as evidenced by his sack rate. He finished dead last among 36 qualifying quarterbacks in Pro Football Focus’ depth-adjusted completion percentage, which leverages success rate by depth of throws. It’s an extreme example, but perhaps not since Tim Tebow’s rise have we seen such a sanitized, low-impact attack by design.

Jackson isn’t devoid of passing upside, though. He’s young and cannon-armed, and showed noticeable improvement at Louisville. After all, in 2017, he finished with virtually identical efficiency numbers as Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen.

A New-Look Arsenal

Mercifully, the team made it a priority this offseason to beef up Jackson’s weaponry. Over his seven rookie starts, only a single Raven (Willie Snead) caught more than 17 balls – all other wideouts combined to catch just 28 of 64 targets. Michael Crabtree looked old and ineffective, speedster John Brown never clicked with Jackson down the field, and the cupboard sat bare of dynamic talent. As a result, Jackson rarely had the opportunity nor the desire to test defenses beyond the underneath.

That production may or may not improve by much in 2019, but if not, it won’t be for lack of trying. The team added rookies Marquise Brown, a blazer who led all of Division I in 50-yard catches from 2017-18, and Miles Boykin, a size/speed dynamo whose explosiveness dazzled the combine, before the draft’s third round had ended. That suggests much more of a downfield focus going forward; ideally, the young burners will make plays on the deeper levels, while Snead and reserve Chris Moore serve as slot complements.

It’s a bold shift and one that could backfire, especially if Jackson fails to take a step forward. Brown is genuinely small at 5-foot-9 and 166 pounds, and Boykin only posted one college season of more than 12 receptions. Both face steep tasks developing into go-to targets. But for speculation purposes, it’s comforting to see the team make this kind of effort.

Second-year tight end Mark Andrews returns to the mix, as well, and played well as a rookie. Down the stretch, Andrews caught 13 of his 18 targets from Jackson, including game-breakers of 74 and 68 yards. Andrews has the speed and talent to add more value than Snead and Moore.

A Blazing ADP Value

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Jackson is locked into tightly bunched tier with 8-to-12 similarly-valued quarterbacks and stays on the board longer than most. Through early July, Jackson was lasting until the QB20 slot, with drafters backing off his low, shaky passing volume. “Safer” options like Drew Brees and Tom Brady consistently go sooner, typically to drafters looking to catch 2014 in a bottle. Jackson, Buffalo’s Josh Allen, and to a lesser extent Arizona’s Kyler Murray are seemingly being punished for their passing limitations, but not elevated for their value as runners. That’s a shame, considering Jackson and Allen both produced at top-seven levels as 2018 starters. From Week 12 on, Jackson produced the seventh-most fantasy points per opportunity (attempt/sack/rush), while Allen produced the most.

Why, again, are these runners being devalued? As demonstrated above, Jackson, Allen, and Murray blow many of those “safe” names away in terms of both floor and ceiling. Some are one-dimensional passers that won’t pad their fantasy lines on the ground at all; they’ll need both huge volume and huge efficiency to threaten a QB1 season. Others carry different question marks, like consistency (Jameis Winston) or usage (Philip Rivers). Still others (Dak Prescott, Mitchell Trubisky) bring rushing numbers to the table but don’t throw or run with near Jackson’s volume. Thus, Jackson walks into 2019 with an advantage over all of them, needing fewer x-factors to pan out in his fantasy favor.

In Jackson, drafters are bringing home a significantly better value by waiting into the middle rounds before selecting a quarterback. Pouncing on Tom Brady in the 10th round makes little sense when there’s a better ceiling and comparable floor likely waiting in the 12th or 13th rounds. These multi-round disparities in projection and ADP are what fantasy leagues hinge on, and Jackson may be 2019’s juiciest example.

2019 Staff Projections