Roundtable Week 10

Photo: USA Today Sports

Welcome to this week's episode of As the NFL Turns. Serial antihero Josh Gordon lands in a new locale, Super Bowl hero Nick Foles returns to the Jaguars lineup, young and lesser-known wide receivers show fantasy potential, and the line between a good quarterback in fantasy and reality is blurred.

With this in mind, let's examine what we think about these topics as we head into Week 10:

• Wide Receiver Roulette
• Fantasy vs. Reality: Quarterback Edition
• All Things Josh Gordon
• All Things Nick Foles

Let's roll...

Wide REceiver Roulette

Matt Waldman: Which likely free agents are the best options for roster consideration?

• Laquon Treadwell
• Keelan Cole
• Hunter Renfrow
• Andy Isabella
• Chester Rogers
• Breshad Perriman
• Deon Cain
• Adam Humphries
• Josh Reynolds
• Bisi Johnson
• Josh Doctson
• Albert Wilson
• Jakeem Grant
• Allen Hurns

Who makes your list of notables?

Jeff Pasquino: Josh Reynolds has always caught my eye with the Rams. With Brandin Cooks out indefinitely, Reynolds becomes an instant starter for Los Angeles. Here's what I wrote back in the preseason when I mentioned Reynolds as a sleeper:

No team in the NFL uses 11-personnel (3 wide receivers, one tight end, and one running back) more than the Los Angeles Rams. In 2018, three wideouts were on the field for the Rams over 90% of the offensive plays – more than 10% more than any other team. The result of this personnel grouping and a high-octane offense made Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp fantasy starters every week for the first half of 2018. When Kupp went down, Reynolds stepped right in as the fourth wideout, playing over 60 snaps in five of the last six regular-season games and seeing five or more targets in five of those same six contests. Quite simply, no other NFL player is the understudy for three Top 50 players on the ADP list. Reynolds will be a hot waiver wire player if anything happens to a starting Rams’ wide receiver, so he makes for a low risk, high-upside late-round pick.

Reynolds became a starter last year when Cooper Kupp was injured mid-season, and he was a WR3/flex option for the rest of the year (WR35 in non-PPR, WR37 in PPR in Weeks 11-17 in 2018, which also included a bye). He's a solid pickup and can be started in good matchups in all formats.

Hunter Renfrow is my other choice. The Raiders are in the hunt in the AFC, and the offense is clicking with Derek Carr getting more and more confident (8:1 TD:INT over the past three games and 280+ yards passing in each contest). Defenses are starting to try to take away TE Darren Waller and WR1 Tyrell Williams, which opens things up for Renfrow. The offense has more balance with Josh Jacobs rounding out the ground game, and Renfrow is making the most of his targets and snaps (105 plays the last three weeks, 12-156-2 on 14 targets over that span). Renfrow has been WR18 in standard scoring and WR21 in PPR scoring over the past three weeks, making him a solid pickup and fantasy starter candidate.

Adam Harstad: If a guy's on the street, that means for one reason or another you and your league mates haven't thought he's going to be productive. There are a couple of reasons that could be. Maybe you think he's a bad player, maybe you think he's in a bad offense, maybe you think he can't stay healthy. But for one reason or another everyone believes he's not going to produce.

The key, then, is to ask yourself for each player why you think he won't be productive, and then estimate how likely you are to be wrong about that. Maybe I think both Laquon Treadwell and Andy Isabella simply aren't very good receivers at this point (both have struggled even to get on the field this year).

If I'm wrong about them, though, it's much more likely I'm wrong about Isabella. Despite being a former first-round pick who is midway through his fourth season, Treadwell still has fewer than 600 career receiving yards. There's a huge amount of evidence that he just doesn't have what it takes to be a productive fantasy receiver. Isabella may be a young guy with one good play to his name, but again, everyone available on waivers is only there because we think they aren't going to produce this year. Isabella doesn't have the history of disappointment that Treadwell has, so I'd rather roll the dice on him.

Looking at the list, here are the guys I'd be most interested in. I've briefly mentioned why they're probably on waivers, and also why we might be wrong about that.

• Hunter Renfrow: A free agent because we think his offense isn't any good, but actually it's been pretty great to this point.
• Albert Wilson: Has shown flashes of productivity in the past but struggles to stay healthy. Maybe he can maintain a clean bill of health for the next eight weeks, though.
• Josh Reynolds: A free agent because he's buried on the Rams' receiver depth chart, but Cooks is likely to miss time and the other guys haven't exactly been iron men, either.

As an anti-pick: Breshad Perriman's touchdown was a fluke play where he wasn't even the intended target and Tampa Bay could get an extra compensatory pick next year if they cut him. Let him stay on waivers.

Jason Wood: Here are the receivers I think should be picked up in every 14-team league:

• Hunter Renfrow -- The Raiders offense has been far better than I expected, and with Tyrell Williams battling injuries on and off, Renfrow's role should remain steady, at worst. Renfrow has been targeted at least three times in every game and has 10 catches for 142 yards and two touchdowns in the last two weeks. He could be a rock-solid WR3, particularly during the next few bye weeks.
• Josh Reynolds -- Reynolds is easily the best No. 4 receiver in football, but he struggles for relevance because Cooper Kupp, Brandin Cooks, and Robert Woods are all No. 1-caliber players. With Cooks out with (another) concussion, Reynolds will step into a high-target role. There will still be volatility because he's competing for targets with Woods and Kupp, not to mention Gerald Everett's emergence. But Reynolds belongs in the tier of boom-or-bust WR3s for as long as Cooks is out.
• Bisi Johnson -- Bisi Johnson outplayed Chad Beebe in training camp, but still had to bide his time for a role. That door is now wide open for Johnson to keep the No. 3 job no matter what Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen do from here. But while Thielen is hurt, Johnson is a touchdown-dependent fantasy WR3.
• Albert Wilson -- Albert Wilson hasn't carved out a role on a terrible Dolphins team, so he's a high-risk proposition. But with Preston Williams on IR, if not now, when?

Unless you have multiple flex spots and large lineups in smaller leagues, most of these receivers should stay on waivers, at least in 10- and 12-team leagues. Now, if you're in a 14-teamer or a dynasty set-up, the story changes.

Drew Davenport: Chester Rogers, Hunter Renfrow, and Albert Wilson are the ones that jump out at me. For one reason or another, I'm not confident in most of the rest of the names on the list. I think in most instances we know who they are and aren't going to materially be much different in their opportunities this year.

Chester Rogers is probably my favorite from this list for the next few weeks. He's had flashes in the past when given the opportunity to play and now Parris Campbell is banged up. Deon Cain has clearly fallen behind the others for playing time (just 30% snap share) and Rogers is the most likely beneficiary of the Campbell injury. Games against the Dolphins, Jaguars, Texans, and the Buccaneers in Week 14 are on tap. Rogers should be able to have some success.

Albert Wilson is an intriguing option, but his "hit rate" will be a lot lower. In other words, I'd absolutely take a chance on him, but recognize that he hasn't been able to establish himself this year and it's risky. The good part of rostering Wilson is that you should know pretty quickly if you should hold or drop him. At this point I'm still chasing the upside we saw last year.

Hunter Renfrow is clearly someone that isn't going to go away. I think he's going to suffer from bouts of disappearing in this offense, but Tyrell Williams is drawing the attention and despite being 3rd in wide receiver snap share Renfrow continues to see plenty of opportunities. It doesn't seem like he has the big ceiling some fantasy owners covet, but he should continue to deliver much-needed points during the big bye weeks coming the next three weeks.

Chad Parsons: I have minimal faith in any of the options for the rest of the season timeframe. Josh Reynolds has the best combination of offense quality and some track record of producing when any of the 'big 3' Rams receivers misses time. With Brandin Cooks out, Reynolds will be a decent WR3-Flex for lineup decisions with upside from there.

I was a big fan of Andy Isabella coming out of UMass with his athleticism and production combination but his slow start—without elite competition for snaps beyond Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk—is a worrisome start, plus Arizona not playing as many 4WR sets as they did early in the season. If choosing a non-Reynolds option to stream in the near-term, any of the Miami options are intriguing with Preston Williams out and comeback-mode volume in play every week.

Dan Hindery: Hunter Renfrow is my favorite target from this list. He is slowly but surely emerging as Derek Carr’s go-to option in key spots. When the Raiders went for it on fourth down from midfield last week, the play was designed to go to Renfrow. He has also been the first read on many important third downs in recent weeks. Jon Gruden mentioned after Sunday’s win against the Lions that teams are starting to shade coverage towards Darren Waller to try to force the Raiders to beat them “with their left hand.” Gruden noted that they are feeling more and more confident in their ability to do that, noting Renfrow’s emergence as one of the big reasons they don’t feel like they have to force it to Waller if defenses are overplaying him.

Josh Reynolds is also intriguing as he should step into a very similar role to the one Brandin Cooks had occupied. The concussion recovery for Cooks seems like more of a long-term deal than typical. Reynolds could have a nice long run as the Rams No. 3 wide receiver. It is a role in which he has a solid shot at putting up WR3 numbers.

There are enough open targets in Miami after the season-ending injury to Preston Williams for someone to emerge as a flex-worthy play as the No. 2 wide receiver. Albert Wilson is probably the most talented of the potential Williams replacements but he hasn’t seemed quite right in his return from a hip injury. Jakeem Grant was signed to a 4-year extension prior to the season and is the guy Miami’s current leadership is most invested in. That could weigh in his favor when they decide who they want to feature the rest of the way. I wouldn’t want to count on any of the Miami wide receivers on this list right away. However, Wilson and Grant make for decent speculative additions if you have the space to stash a guy and see how this playing time battle plays out over the next few weeks.

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Fantasy vs. Reality: Quarterback Edition

Waldman: What are the differences between a good fantasy quarterback and what we consider a good NFL quarterback? Matt Ryan is a good quarterback, but in most leagues, he's not a good fantasy quarterback. Jameis Winston's label as a good quarterback is up for debate but he's a QB1 in all but 8-team formats. What factors make a good fantasy passer?

Hindery: There is definitely a disconnect between fantasy value and real NFL value at the quarterback position in most scoring systems. This doesn’t bother me because I don’t feel the need for fantasy football scoring to closely approximate a player’s true NFL value (best measured by EPA or something similar). There are at least three key areas where typical fantasy scoring systems are causing us to see some divergence between fantasy player value and real NFL value at quarterback.

The first big differentiator is that turnovers aren’t as costly in fantasy football as they are in the NFL. Your fantasy quarterback tossing a couple of interceptions might only cost you two fantasy points but it probably would cost his NFL team a chance at victory. Turnover avoidance is one of the main factors separating the top NFL quarterbacks from the rest.

The five quarterbacks who have thrown the most interceptions this season are Jameis Winston, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Andy Dalton, and Matt Ryan. Their teams are a combined 6-34.

Causation probably runs in both directions; throwing interceptions causes NFL teams to lose and NFL teams that are losing have to take more chances throwing the ball. Even with that caveat, it seems clear that fantasy scoring doesn’t punish severely enough for turnovers because turnovers have a huge negative impact on win expectancy in the NFL.

If one considers this disconnect to be a problem, scoring systems that increase the negative points for turnovers to four probably better approximate real NFL value when it comes to quarterback performance. Those scoring systems punish quarterbacks who don’t take care of the ball and also increase the reward for quarterbacks (like Russell Wilson) who rarely make mistakes.

As with all positions, a player's volume is a huge determinant of fantasy value. Andy Dalton is a top-12 quarterback in fantasy PPG this season mainly because he leads the NFL in passing attempts per game. Yards per attempt is a better stat when it comes to determining a quarterback’s NFL value. A team is more likely to win if their quarterback throws for 280 yards on 30 attempts than if their quarterback throws for 300 yards on 50 attempts but from a fantasy perspective, the latter is going to score higher.

Lastly, there has been a lot of discussion of late about the fact sacks are a quarterback stat (led in large part by Adam) but our fantasy scoring doesn’t take this into account. There is no fantasy penalty for having a quarterback who holds onto the ball too long and takes sacks. If we wanted to have our fantasy scoring better approximate real value, we could count sack yardage as negative rushing yards for the quarterback.

This is how fantasy is scored at the college level and it forces you to take into account which guys are going to take an inordinately high number of sacks. In terms of quarterbacks adding to their team's win expectancy, throwing it away is more beneficial than taking a sack and most fantasy scoring systems do not have any way to take that into account.

Parsons: Rushing production is a fast-track to more fantasy viability than NFL prowess by the numbers. Another factor, as Dan mentioned, is interceptions, which are a crippling NFL stat and game result-shifter but not a huge penalty in most scoring formats for fantasy.

Winston, for example, has 12 interceptions to lead the NFL yet is firmly in the top-10 for fantasy for most formats. Even 10-15 yards per game on the ground is enough to pace or elevate a quarterback above similar passing option peers.

A quick Rolodex of the top fantasy quarterbacks and most are good, if not excellent, rushers with Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, and Kyler Murray all in the top-10 or higher. Another factor is quarterbacks NFL-wise are judged, rightly or wrongly, by wins as well. For fantasy, being in comeback mode and narrowly losing as they post big passing numbers in the fourth quarter would be positive on the fantasy front.

Harstad: Usually, the biggest difference between good fantasy QBs and good reality QBs is that the latter play with better defenses. A mediocre quarterback can produce a lot of volume when paired with a bad defense. (The other biggest differentiators are interceptions, which are much more punitive from an NFL standpoint than a fantasy standpoint, and rushing yards, which count the same as passing in the NFL but are typically twice as valuable-- if not more-- in fantasy.)

I'd quibble with Matt Ryan not being a good fantasy quarterback, though. He got hurt, which drops him in the overall standings, but the Falcons offense ranks first in passing yards and third in passing touchdowns. (Which goes hand-in-hand with the previous point, because Atlanta's defense has been atrocious.)

Davenport: When searching for a good fantasy quarterback as opposed to a good NFL quarterback one of the biggest factors I use is the defense they are saddled with. I agree wholeheartedly with Adam when he says, "A mediocre quarterback can produce a lot of volume when paired with a bad defense." That is one of the main reasons I ranked Matt Ryan so aggressively this summer - I just didn't like his defense to stop anyone this year. I'm not much of a believer in Matt Ryan in real life, to be quite honest, but I loved his chances for fantasy success.

I also believe there is the law of unintended consequences at play for turnover-prone quarterbacks. Rather than making them guys we want to stay away from, instead, their mismanagement of games leads to huge stat lines. Take Matt Schaub for example as a fill-in for Ryan in Week 8. He didn't play particularly well when it mattered and as a result, he rolled up 460 yards passing trying to come back from a hole he was partially responsible for digging. So when a quarterback turns it over a lot his teams find themselves trailing a lot, and therefore the stats come in the second half of games for fantasy owners.

Pasquino: Fantasy is all about producing numbers, especially yards (with the hopes of some touchdowns). Strong fantasy quarterbacks can come from teams that need to throw more than 35 times a week, and that can be the result of team weaknesses in other areas such as a bad rushing offense and a weak defense which leads to shootouts, etc.

Recent advances in RPO-based quarterbacks also boost scramblers, increasing the floor of not just a stud like Lamar Jackson but also other options not afraid to tuck it and run like Buffalo's Josh Allen or even the Giants' Daniel Jones. Statuesque quarterbacks that stay in the pocket and hand the ball off half of the time or more can be good quarterbacks but weak in fantasy. Tom Brady comes to mind, as do classic historically winning quarterbacks that underperform in fantasy like Troy Aikman.

Matt Ryan had great numbers when he had to throw it a ton and had productive receivers, but also a bad defense and 1-2 running backs that can catch a short pass and take it a long way. Drew Brees had this benefit throughout his career, including now with Alvin Kamara.

Looking for quarterbacks with multiple receiving options and an offense that struggles to run it between the tackles boost passing numbers across the board. As for a player like Winston, touchdowns and plenty of attempts can easily offset turnovers in most scoring systems, so putting him in fantasy lineups in games likely to be pass-happy shootouts outweighs the downside risk.

Wood: I'm not sure about the premise. Matt Ryan is absolutely a good fantasy quarterback. He was QB6 before getting hurt this year. He was QB2 last year and QB3 in 2016. He only finished QB14 in 2017, but there aren't many quarterbacks with two top-3 finishes and three top-10 finishes in the last four seasons.

Waldman: Good catch with Ryan, but I believe you get the broader point.

Wood: Yes. The issue gets down to decision-making. In fantasy leagues, quarterbacks are rewarded for volume and usually not appropriately penalized for turnovers. So if a team is getting blown out, and that forces the team to abandon the run, a quarterback can put up 300+ yards passing even though he threw three interceptions and took his team out of contention early in the process.

I recommend tweaking league settings to appropriately penalize turnovers so that the best NFL quarterbacks more closely resemble the best fantasy quarterbacks.

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All Things Josh Gordon

Waldman: Now that Gordon is a Seahawk, what are your expectations?

• Will he have a fantasy impact? If so, in which formats?
• Who will he help or hurt among the receiving corps?

Are you optimistic or jaded about Gordon and his new locale?

Harstad: As a general rule, expecting big contributions from midseason acquisitions is a poor bet. There are exceptions. Carson Palmer was pretty good in his first season with the Raiders, but there tend to be extenuating circumstances. For instance, Palmer wasn't jettisoned because his previous team didn't want him, he was traded because he refused to play for them.

If Josh Gordon has a fantasy impact, it's probably going to be in his marginal effect on everyone else in the offense. Maybe expectations for Russell Wilson tick up a bit with Gordon in the fold. Maybe expectations for D.K. Metcalf tick down. I think Metcalf, not Lockett, will be the receiver most impacted. I don't see Gordon replicating the chemistry Wilson already has with Lockett, but I do think they could integrate him into their offense as a physically-dominant mismatch relatively quickly.

I don't see Gordon's acquisition being a net positive for anyone other than Wilson. "Drawing coverages" isn't really a thing, at least not a big enough thing to offset "drawing targets", especially in a passing offense that's already as volume-constrained as Seattle's.

Davenport: One thing I firmly believe in is that players will tell us who they are if we are willing to listen. By the time a player has been in the league for a handful of years we essentially know all that we need to know, with very few exceptions. As a whole, there is still a tendency though, to take outlier seasons and believe that the outlier is who the player is "if only....". Unfortunately, the "if only" means that a bunch of factors have to line up perfectly for the player to succeed.

I think that Josh Gordon has been one of the more perfect examples of both of these concepts. He's been in the league for seven years now and owns one standout season. Should we continue to believe the six years are the outliers, or the one year is?

Yes, he's an awesome talent. Yes, I love Josh Gordon the player and wish he could recapture the magic. But will he?

I doubt it.

As a result, I think that he'll have very minimal fantasy impact in his new landing spot. The passing numbers are being helped lately by the poor performance of the defense, but in general, this team loves running the football. They've failed to attempt more than 35 throws six out of their nine games to date. Additionally, Gordon will compete with incumbents Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. Carving out a role in a low volume pass offense with two guys ahead of you in the rotation is not the recipe for success.

In general, I'd be most concerned, however, if I'm a Metcalf owner. Lockett's role should be secure, but if fantasy owners are to be concerned my best guess is that Gordon will cannibalize some of the routes that Metcalf runs well. I don't see it as being catastrophic for Metcalf, but it's definitely going to be a factor.

Wood: Has there ever been a player the fantasy community has defended more than Josh Gordon? It's remarkable. The Patriots are a place average players go to be great. And they're a team where good players leave and become bad. It happens time and again. Why on Earth would you ever invest in a player Bill Belichick gives up on? Let's consider, the Patriots would rather have Dorsett, Jakobi Myers, and Mohamed Sanu on the field.

I would be shocked if Gordon is on the Seahawks active (46-man) roster within a month. He hasn't been relevant since 2013, yet somehow we're always trying to frame him as a stud-in-waiting. Enough is enough!

Parsons: I have not been a fan of Josh Gordon on a fantasy front since he spent the time away from the game years ago. He had one big year for a horrible Browns team and forgettable mostly since. Russell Wilson is a 'rising tide' quarterback but the competition for targets is high with Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf entrenched and Jacob Hollister viable at tight end.

The Seahawks are also middle of the pack in terms of passing attempts, making a not-so-big pie to split with another potential receiver. If hurting anyone, Gordon would siphon production from D.K. Metcalf, who is averaging a sturdy six targets per game and has five touchdowns.

Hindery: We can start with the on-field aspect. In recent weeks, it didn’t look like Gordon had the same juice he did earlier in his career. Perhaps due to the knee injury. Maybe he’s functioning at a physical age that is older than a normal 28-year-old receiver.

He probably isn’t the special size-speed specimen he was when he was younger. However, he is still an above-average talent at the wide receiver position. That makes the way this has all played out confusing and worth evaluating before making any hard predictions about how things are likely to play out in Seattle.

Something caused the New England Patriots to believe that they would be so much better off with Mohamed Sanu in place of Josh Gordon that they were willing to part with a valuable 2nd-round pick to make the roster swap.

Something also caused 30 of the other 31 NFL teams to decide not to put a waiver claim in for Gordon. I don’t think it was a fear of bad public relations. There isn’t going to be a public backlash in 2019 if the local NFL franchise signs a guy whose biggest perceived baggage is that he smokes marijuana. Teams didn’t pass for financial reasons either.

The Seahawks are only shelling out less than $1.1 million for Gordon’s remaining salary. Based upon what we can see from the outside, it doesn’t seem to add up. There had to be football reasons 30 GMs and coaching staffs decided they liked all of their current wide receivers more than Gordon. Perhaps concerns about Gordon’s reliability or off-field preparation scared teams off.

I don’t think it is unreasonable to approach Gordon with a great deal of skepticism at this point. If everything falls into place, he could absolutely challenge DK Metcalf for the WR2 role in a very good passing offense. But I’m not betting on that happening. The contextual clues all point to there being something we can’t see from the outside that is holding Gordon back.

Pasquino: I believe that Josh Gordon will have a fantasy impact, both for himself and especially for the rest of the skill positions in Seattle...

Waldman:

Pasquino: Ha!

Listen, Russell Wilson is going to be Russell Wilson, and he's on fire of late—so there is not much likely there to change.

Tyler Lockett will see plenty of work as the incumbent WR1 for the Seahawks, but D.K. Metcalf's targets may go down a little. Seattle's defense has been suspect so far and they are getting very little pass rush (only 15 sacks), so shootouts are becoming the norm.

If they start to go three-wide more often—and they do not have much at tight end, then Gordon could be on the field more often. There are five capable receivers for Seattle with David Moore and Jaron Brown.

Adding Gordon to the mix gives another option to stretch the field and keep defenses deeper, opening up more lanes for Chris Carson if he can hold on to the ball after the catch.

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All Things Nick Foles

Matt Waldman: Doug Marrone will take the bye week to think about a quarterback switch...until he didn't and named Foles the starter. Let's discuss Jacksonville's quarterback situation.

• Who would you roll with, Foles or Gardner Minshew?
• How do you project the distribution of targets to change under Foles?
• Will Foles sustain Minshew's fantasy production, build on it, or will he be worse?

Weigh-in on the Jaguars' quarterback quandary.

Davenport: The decision to roll with Foles seems entirely appropriate and necessary. Minshew was a great story and did very well to come in and perform as he did, but he's not a seasoned quarterback like Foles. He seemed limited in what he could do the further he went into the season as opposing teams figured out the offense.

I would expect that the Jags offense will get a boost from the ability to increase their red-zone efficiency under Foles' direction. I don't see how this offense takes a step back under Foles, it will be at least as good or better when he returns.

The targets are going to be interesting. The one player I'm paying attention to most is Leonard Fournette. Will the staff call the same number of running back oriented passes or was that something to help Minshew have high percentage throws? Will Foles check it down to Fournette as often or will an increase in efficiency mean fewer targets?

Those are my main concerns. I don't know that we can accurately predict the distribution among the wide receiver group, but I wouldn't be concerned if I'm a D.J. Chark owner as he has separated himself nicely.

Harstad: "Who would I roll with?" and "who do I think the Jaguars should roll with?" are very different questions. I tend to think that Nick Foles is probably a better quarterback than Gardner Minshew today, assuming both are fully healthy.

From a short-term win-maximizing standpoint, Foles should probably be the choice. I don't have a ton of confidence in this, but I think he'd be more productive and the Jaguars offense would be better overall with him under center.

But I also tend to think in the NFL if you don't have a top-10 quarterback you're starting from such a ridiculously disadvantaged position that I'd bend pretty much all of my efforts into landing a top-10 quarterback. I don't think either Minshew or Foles is likely to be that, but I think Minshew is less-unlikely than Foles is, so I'd roll with the young guy still.