You guys have a ton of articles.
This statement about Footballguys is a blessing but it can feel like a curse. Our staff delivers insights that change seasons for the better yet realistically, no fantasy owner has the time to read everything we publish in a week.
If this describes you, let me be your scout. Here are five insights from Footballguys articles that I find compelling for the weekend ahead. I'll share what should help you this week, touch on the long-term outlook, and sometimes offer a counterargument.
1. Roundtable: STRATEGIES FOR FOOTBALLGUYS-FFPC NEW PLAYOFF CONTEST
Matt Waldman: Footballguys has a new playoff contest in partnership with the FFPC. What re some strategies you recommend for this contest?
Sean Settle: These types of contests are a lot of fun and takes a different type of strategy. You get to draft 10 players from the 12 playoff teams and can only have one player per team. You have to consider which teams are the most likely to make a deep playoff run and target your top potential scoring from those teams.
You have to make a balanced roster that accurately predicts which teams move on in the playoffs.
If you take Lamar Jackson at quarterback, then you do not want to take a running back with a first-round bye. Spread your points out and use the philosophy of surviving and advancing. Having the most points in the first round may put your team in a bad spot in the later rounds.
Andy Hicks: As always you need to read the rules carefully. One of the key rules that struck me was this rule:
“Each week’s score will be added to your team’s total and the Superbowl will count as DOUBLE the points”
Finding out which two teams are likely to lay an egg in the wild card or divisional round will also help. We can only pick a player from 10 of the 12 teams. Who is going to be one and done?
Drew Davenport: I think the single most important thing with this contest that is somewhat overlooked is predicting who is going to win the games each weekend. It's the NFL and therefore it's tough, but I agree with Sean when he said, "You have to make a balanced roster that accurately predicts which teams move on in the playoffs."
Succinct and accurate. If you aren't predicting the right winners you're pretty much done before you start.
On top of that, you can't get too wrapped up in picking exciting players that aren't playing in the Wild Card round. If you are too heavy on certain teams you won't make it out of the opening rounds. You must go for balance, and as such, you may have to pick some outliers to help your team as you go forward.
One last thing that's critical is something Andy already pointed out: "Each week’s score will be added to your team’s total and the Superbowl will count as DOUBLE the points."
It may sound obvious, but that means that you need to have as much punch in the Super Bowl as you can. If you don't think Lamar Jackson's Ravens can make the big show then it removes luster from the pick. It doesn't mean you can't do it, but having the right players in the Super Bowl week is as critical as almost any other facet of the game.
Matt Waldman: Drew, Sean, and Andy mentioned the main strategic point of selecting as many players as possible that will make it to the Super Bowl as possible. However, this strategy must be balanced with having enough players available for you to produce during the first week of the playoffs while the odds-on favorites to reach the Super Bowl won't play until Week 2 of the playoffs.
When examining the scoring system, here are some position-specific thoughts I'd consider:
Treat quarterbacks like the queen of a chessboard: You can only select 10 players for the length of the contest and there's no bench. Combined with the scoring system, I'd consider quarterbacks like Queens on the chessboard where they're often used as middle- and end-game pieces, because the odds are lower of a wild-card team advancing to the Super Bowl. Counting on the position in the early rounds seems like a waste of resources when the higher seeds will likely have the most productive quarterbacks.
I would go all-in on the quarterback that I think has the best chance of making the Super Bowl. Based on the strength of the teams, I think Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes II are the two best bets in the AFC and have the most difficult quarterbacks to stop—or even limit to a paltry sum. Mahomes gives you a great shot of quality work through the conference championship and a great upside for the Super Bowl. However, Jackson looks well worth the proposition of playing a week without a quarterback.
While the NFC has excellent veteran quarterbacks none of them have been as consistent as Jackson and Mahomes. On a per-game basis, only Jackson has been better than Mahomes and both teams have beaten New England this year. None of the NFL playoff contenders have the defenses to stop either quarterback. Otherwise, I'd consider Russell Wilson because he's among the most skilled at in-game adjustments.
Consider your tight end as a middle and end-game piece: You have six players to consider at these three positions and the 1.5 PPR rule for tight ends elevates them to end-game pieces nearly on-par with the prolific quarterback—especially with double points during the Super Bowl. Because I'm a believer in the Ravens and Chiefs offenses and view the Patriots are a weaker squad lacking the personnel to go all the way,
It seems wise to consider Travis Kelce and/or Mark Andrews as my options. I would likely roll with Andrews, Kelce, or George Kittle as two of my tight ends, depending on my quarterback. Kelce is likely playing the Wild Card Round and I think the Chiefs have the best chance of the Wild Card teams to advance to the Super Bowl.
The downside of this approach is that, at best, you only get one of those options in the Super Bowl whereas rolling with Andrews and Kittle could compound your upside but you have one less payer in the early phase of the contest and could prevent you from getting far enough to utilize these end -game pieces. A compromise might be Kelce-Kittle where you bet on the Chiefs as the best team to buck the odds and hope this pair faces off at the very end.
Use two of your remaining five spots at running backs and wide receivers with your odds-on favorite divisional playoff teams: If you roll with a runner and receiver from a divisional-playoff team then it means you're starting the contest with no more than 60 percent of your roster. However, I like the idea of having at least three high-volume options on Super Bowl Sunday.
When betting on a running back from one divisional playoff team and I want strong offensive line play as a significant factor in my decision, which means the Ravens, 49ers, and Packers as my primary choices. Mark Ingram is my first choice but Aaron Jones and Raheem Mostert are also worthwhile if you want to diversify just enough so you're not all-in with Baltimore.
I'd also consider one receiver from a divisional playoff team. Davante Adams, Emmanuel Sanders, and Julian Edelman are my top choices, but I'd also look into Deebo Samuel. I'm choosing based on volume and rapport and in Samuel's case, the 49ers ability to scheme creatively with Samuel, a rookie who may not fully grasp the gravity of the playoffs and play loose.
Use the final three running back/receiver spots with the wild card teams you believe have the best chance to advance deep into the playoffs: Kansas City, New Orleans, Seattle are those three teams on my list of eight that I like the most. Tyreek Hill, Michael Thomas, and Tyler Lockett are on my short-list because they are capable of volume and/or explosive plays and they're paired with battle-tested and/or incredibly talented quarterbacks.
Based on the rules, I'd prefer tight ends and quarterbacks as my priority picks for teams that I think have the best chance of making the Super Bowl and reserve running backs and receivers for the remaining teams. The Saints are tough at home but if they win, they face the Packers on the road and New Orleans has a history of struggling outdoors and on grass stadiums. Lockett earns a great matchup against the Eagles and Russell Wilson matches up well against the 49ers or Packers in the divisional round. Because I'd roll with the teams that have the best ground games
While there's compelling value to the idea that if you're betting on the Chiefs to take one of their backs, I'd prefer a team that leans hard on the ground game and has a strong enough offensive line and play-action complement. The Vikings would be appealing if you could trust Kirk Cousins to show up in big games and even reach the playoffs ahead of Dallas. He hasn't proven it but Wilson, Brees, and Mahomes have. Of this trio, Alvin Kamara is the most appealing figurehead of the three teams' ground games. Marshawn Lynch offers massive risk-reward while Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook are safe for one game but may only have one game of life.
Either take a kicker from a wild card team and a defense from a divisional team or take both from a divisional team: The divisional teams have the best defenses and have a greater chance of facing a wild card team that will be prone to mistakes. However, I'd rather make non-kickers a higher priority.
Good luck!
2. New Reality: Early 2020 NFL DRaft Metrics
Chad Parsons ends the season with a look at the 2020 NFL Draft class.
With the fantasy football season complete and the NFL shifting firmly to playoff mode, dynasty teams shift to 2020 NFL Draft mode with rookies drafts in a few months the next critical items on the to-do list. Here is an early look at the metrics of the 2020 class across the skill positions:
*Data included reference the author's projection model, designed to improve the probability of predicting skill position prospects to produce fantasy starter seasons in the NFL*
*With the declaration deadline not until mid-January, some of the non-senior prospects mentioned here may end up returning to school*
Here Chad's thoughts on the running back class.
The running back position is historically elite if most-all of the eligible prospects declare in 2020. Seven underclassmen have 90% or higher current projection model overall scores. As a comparison, no running backs were higher than 86% for the 2019 class. This could be as good (or better) than the strong 2017 and 2018 classes.
Most of the top prospects in 2020 have minimal or no metrics holes too. Building the ideal running back prospect would include a 21-year-old NFL rookie start, good enough size and athleticism, and strong two-way production in college. J.K. Dobbins, Cam Akers, Jonathan Taylor, De'Andre Swift, and Chuba Hubbard all qualify across the board. Travis Etienne and AJ Dillon have quibbles with their REC scores but are rock-solid in the ATH (athleticism) and RUSH (rushing) categories. This list of running backs has not mentioned Najee Harris yet, who is likely top-75 bound in the NFL draft and 2019 riser Clyde Edwards-Helaire of LSU (junior) who could be top-100 bound with a good finish and draft process in the offseason. Edwards-Helaire as well we Hubbard (redshirt sophomore) are two of the top names who could push to a much weaker 2021 class for less competition as a top pick.
The sleeper subset in the model for running backs includes a host of well-balanced profiles destined for Day 3 considering the drove of elite prospects ahead of them. Ke'Shawn Vaughn (senior), James Robinson (senior), Zack Moss (senior), Ben LeMay (senior), and Michael Warren II (junior)...
The 2020 class has an early projection as a dominant class regardless of dynasty league format. The centerpiece is the elite (and deep) top tiers of running backs and wide receivers. When combining the elite profiles with Round 1 (for receivers) and Day 2 or better (running backs) draft pedigree early projections, these groups alone could offer an entire first-round of the population for rookie drafts. This assumes a stock PPR format. Add quarterback and/or tight end premiums and the number would grow toward the mid-second round...and this assumes there are no 'rogue' selections which are driven by situational boosts in late April, which are bound to occur. This is the ideal year to have a bevy of rookie picks in general and specifically in the first 25-30 picks (even deeper in IDP formats). Also, like 2017-18, this class is more about the select players to avoid once we get to May rookie drafts than the select target players in 2019. Fish in a barrel is an appropriate term to begin the process.
Matt's Thoughts: On the surface, this looks like a strong class. Based on the film study I've performed of this class since last year, Swift, Taylor, and Dobbins are worth early consideration. Akers, Etienne, and Hubbard possess the speed and other athletic skills that will push them higher than their on-field performance beyond the box score (decision-making, footwork, patience, and other technical and conceptual skills where this trio lacks various degrees of refinement). Edwards-Helaire excites a lot of people but he's a limited player compared to most of the options mentioned above. Vaughn, Moss, an Warren may offer as much, if not significantly more than Edwards-Helaire.
Robinson and LeMay are small-school options with stronger production than what the film reveals on them. UAB's Spencer Brown, Central Michigan's Jonathan Ward, Mississippi State's Kylin Hill, Oklahoma'sTrey Sermon, and TCU backup Darius Anderson are also worth your consideration as late-round projects worth noting.
3. Waivers of the Future: Looking ahead
Daniel Simpkins shares players he's acquiring from dynasty league waiver wires as we head into the offseason. Here are various options I found compelling from his piece:
Bridgewater once again has the option of going to a new team at the end of the year, but he seems happy in New Orleans and few would be shocked if he chose to be the future for the Saints after Drew Brees hangs up his cleats. Ryan Tannehill looks to have done enough to earn a multi-year extension in a Tennessee offense that is finally finding a way to put together a viable passing game. Drew Lock, Will Grier, and Gardner Minshew obviously need seasoning, but all have shown flashes that suggest they could be at least fringe NFL starters...Josh Rosen has been in two very bad situations and it is unclear if he will get a legitimate shot with a good organization, but the talent is such that it is worth holding him to find out. Chad Kelly could very well be the most intriguing and high-upside name on this list, but past character issues make him a volatile asset that could lose all value at the next instance in which Kelly crosses the line...
Jordan Wilkins tops the list of players that are probably out there. Had injury not cut his opportunity short, we may have been talking about him a lot more as he filled in for Marlon Mack. He is a running back that has a higher ceiling than Mack if he continues his development trajectory...Bo Scarbrough is another name you may see dropped post-playoffs that could be worth holding on to, especially in non-PPR formats. Kerryon Johnson has not proven to be able to stay healthy. Though Scarbrough doesn’t have the dynamic ability of Johnson, he is serviceable in an offense that prefers to run with a lead. If the Lions’ injury luck bounces a little differently next year, they may be ahead in a few more games. Kerrith Whyte is interesting from the standpoint that he has flashed ability in limited work and could work his way up to be behind a starter that so far has had trouble staying healthy in James Conner.
Bridgewater paired with Sean Payton is a good buy. I understand some of our staff believes Bridgewater has never been a promising quarterback, but Bridgewater was on the verge of a breakout season before his career-threatening injury and he was the best quarterback in New York's preseason competition that was always going to be slanted toward Sam Darnold and an older veteran to work with the rookie. Give Bridgewater a full offseason as the starter behind a quality offensive line and skill players that Brees has, and Bridgewater has a shot at top-15 production.
I agree with Daniel about Tannehill, Lock, Grier, and Minshew. Grier had a better debut than his stats suggest. I broke down his debut against the Panthers and he was much closer to a 300-yard day than the box score appears and only one of his three interceptions was obviously his fault. Kelly and Rosen are worth consideration because they are cheap and most fantasy players and fantasy analysts will make up some on-field problem with their games in the same way that Adrian Peterson lost his speed or Todd Gurley was a fantasy fraud during his second season. Both have skills but require more on-field opportunities and support from the team before we can make a judgment about their on-field potential.
Wilkins has the best vision and decision-making of the running backs on the Colts. For Wilkins' sake, I'd love the Colts to keep the depth chart as is in 2020 but I think it's wise and also likely for Indianapolis to draft a running back with a combination of Mack's athletic ability and Wilkin's running ability. Scarbrough has shown enough that I think he'll earn a committee or first-tier backup role in the NFL once again. Whyte has NFL skills and committee-level upside short-term, but I think he'll be fighting for a roster spot in Pittsburgh or elsewhere after teams dip into the pool of rookies from the 2020 class.
4. The Sharp Report
Ryan Zamichieli's Sharp Report has been a regular mention at the Best of Footballguys this year. Most of you know what it's about but here's the link to Ryan's feature in case you haven't seen it before.
Last week, Ryan listed Austin Hooper as his Sharp Play of the Week and Hooper earned twice his value in fantasy points. In fact, Zamichieli's Sharp Play's of the Week for the season have earned at least 1.1 times their value for all but one pick this year and usually, these picks have returned at least 2-3.5 times the value.
Week 17's Sharp Play of the Week is Ezekiel Elliott.
Ezekiel Elliott and the Dallas Cowboys have a must-win game against the Washington Redskins ahead of themselves if they want to have any outside shot at making the playoffs as the NFC East champions. The Cowboys enter this game as 10.5-point favorites over the Redskins, which typically leads to a run-heavy offensive attack for the victors. The Cowboys' offense could trend even further in this direction if the reports of Dak Prescott's ailing shoulder are to be believed. The Washington Redskins have also allowed at least 100-yards rushing to each of the last 3 starting running backs they have faced. Elliott, the perfect embodiment of the modern bell-cow running back, rarely leaves the field, playing at least 77-percent of Dallas' offensive snaps in every non-blowout game since Week 2. Additionally, Tony Pollard, Elliott's rookie backup, fumbled the ball away on a critical third-down last week on one of his two carries, which will not bode well for his case for increased usage going forward in 2019. Elliott has tallied at least 20 carries 7 times this season while surpassing 100 rushing yards on 6 occasions already, and this elite matchup is a fantastic opportunity for Ezekiel Elliott to add another tally to both columns. Expect Elliott, even at his top-tier price tag, to be a staple of sharp cash lineups in the final week of the 2019 regular season.
Matt's Thoughts: The thoughts on Pollard's performance in Week 16 combined with the must-win narrative make this a cinch-pick this week in DFS formats.
5. Jeff Terfertiller's Dynasty News
Jeff gives his perspective on dynasty-related stories each week during the season. Here are some of the stories that Jeff mentioned this week that I'm most interested in as we head into 2020:
In an interview with a local radio station Friday Arizona Cardinals General Manager Steve Keim reiterated his desire to re-sign impending free agent, Kenyan Drake. Keim said, "I would certainly love to have Kenyan Drake back … I think he fits in this offense and he really has given us a spark in many ways." Keim said this after Drake’s monster outing. A strong finish to the season will help Drake’s leverage. The fantastic outing (166 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns) in Seattle Sunday solidified the strong negotiating position. There is little chance Arizona permits the impending free agent to exit this offseason. As we have stated the past few weeks, expect David Johnson to be playing elsewhere next season. Chase Edmonds is the player to target this offseason.
Steven Sims, Jr. has elevated his play the past two weeks. The undrafted rookie out of Kansas is undersized (5’, 10”, 190 pounds) but has emerged over fellow rookie Kelvin Harmon. Sims has seen 21 targets the past two weeks and has excelled opposite Terry McLaurin. McLaurin only needs 81 yards to top 1,000 yards in his rookie year. Washington has a good nucleus of receivers and quarterback Dwayne Haskins has elevated his game of late. In the loss to the Giants Sunday, Haskins was 12-of-15 passing for 133 yards and 2 scores before leaving the contest early in the second half with an ankle injury.
On Monday, Adam Schefter tweeted, “Bengals’ WR AJ Green visited today with noted foot specialist, Dr. Robert Anderson, per source. If Green is in Green Bay today with a foot doctor, hard to imagine he’ll return this season. He’s scheduled to be a free agent this off-season.” Schefter followed it up with a tweet Tuesday, “Bengals’ WR A.J. Green told the team's website that he probably will not play the final two games of the season. His season basically is over before it began.” Footballguys own Chase Stuart offered an interesting stat, “Since drafting A.J. Green in 2011, he's missed the equivalent of two seasons. The Bengals with A.J. Green: 66-44-1; The Bengals without A.J. Green: 6-24-1.” In a recent Bengals.com article, Green discussed his injury, “It’s finally turned the corner. It’s been feeling better and better each week … There were no setbacks. The plan was to go up there (to meet Dr. Anderson). He liked the way it looked. He said it’s only a matter of time. It’s not (ready) to play a game, but he was like, it’s a good thing I didn’t rush this thing.” He added, “(Dr. Anderson) said the biggest thing for me is to get my range of motion back,” Green said. “Most of it is back. It will take time as I keep running routes and keep doing stuff with Nick.” Green went on to discuss the future, “I have no problem with the franchise (tag). I don’t like it, but I’m not a guy that’s going to sit out the whole year … But at the end of the day, that shows me they’re not committed to me. That’s fine. They have a business they have to run. As the player I have my own business, so if you do that I have to protect myself … If you’re not committed to me long-term, I understand. There are no hard feelings. You have a business to run. All great businesses face difficult decisions. I understand that. For me, I have to make a big decision as well.” The veteran displays outstanding composure in this interview. He is almost back to full health and knows that it is a business. Cincinnati – as shown by Chase’s stat – needs Green’s presence in the lineup, especially if a rookie quarterback will be under center.
Matt's Thoughts: David Johnson will bring a $14.25 million cap hit in 2020 and the remaining $5.1 million of his 2020 salary fully guaranteed on March 15 of 2019. Another $2.1 million of his 2021 salary will fully guarantee on March 20 of 2020. He's owed $26.25 million over the net two years. Add this up and the Cardinals won't have an easy time trading him but getting rid of Johnson in the least costly way will be a priority.
Sims has played well and to a lesser degree, so has Harmon. With a rich class of receivers in the 2020 NFL Draft, expect Washington to draft another talented option during the first 3-4 rounds. In other words, Sims and Harmon are worth monitoring and/or keeping in deep formats but don't overpay.
Everyone Bengals fans would love to see Green finish his career in a top offense. Green still has enough left to return near the top of his game but each year and another injury could reduce that potential dramatically. I'd like to think that Green will be a fantasy bargain in 2020 re-draft formats but if he stays healthy during the preseason, most will only earn an early-August discount.
That's it for the year. I hope you had a fulfilling season as a fan and a fantasy player. Remember, Footballguys has playoff content as well as offseason analysis throughout the winter and spring.
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