WEEK 16 PREPARATION
Congratulations to those of you who dominated the playoffs up to this point, or squeaked through by the narrowest of margins. You looked at bad luck in the face and said: "is that all you got?" Last week, several key players did not come through for us, including but not limited to Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Kirk Cousins, Jimmy Garoppolo, Philip Rivers, etc. and that's just quarterbacks. Several consistent notable running backs and receivers also struggled - Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook (inj), Kenny Golladay, Dede Westbrook, Jack Doyle, Austin Hooper, Emmanuel Sanders, Tyler Boyd, Deebo Samuel, Jarvis Landry, among others had surprisingly poor results. There will be a lot of teams in the title game who stumbled in. To use a hockey/soccer analogy, a goal is still a goal even if it slowly rolls past the goalie. It takes skill to advance this far, but there's also a great deal of luck involved. Congratulation on making it this far.
Week 16 is here. You survived. You're in the Finals. (Hopefully, the smallest of percentages of you have a Week 17 Championship). Maybe you have a lot of money on the line? Or maybe just bragging rights among your family, friends or co-workers. Either way, the goal is in sight. Here are a few thoughts on how you can take down your opponent and lift the trophy.
YOUR FUTURE LOOKS BRIGHTER IF YOU HAVE HOME RUNNING BACKS IN YOUR LINEUP
Unless there's an injury to a big-name player, go with those who got you here. Home running backs are the ticket, especially later in the year. Perhaps the biggest key performer at home this week is Chris Carson (vs Arizona). There's also whoever suits up at running back for Minnesota. Dalvin Cook (shoulder) and Alexander Mattison (ankle) are questionable, if not doubtful. That leaves Mike Boone as the next man up. Boone shined in the preseason, as well as Week 15 with two scores on 13 carries. Derrick Henry returns home to face the Saints. Henry didn't look like himself last week after sitting out practice all week with hamstring soreness. Perhaps another week of healing will do him good. Tennessee (8-6) is at a crossroads where they will need to win to have a shot at a playoff berth. Other home running backs who could produce for us this week include Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler vs Oakland. Miles Sanders, after disappointing in Week 14, came alive in Week 15. The Eagles will play the game of the year against Dallas this week. Several teams in the Championship will be counting on Sanders to put up similar numbers this week. He's at home, in a must-win game. James White will face the Bills at home this week. If New England loses, they could be looking at a possible third seed in the AFC and no first-round bye. Look for White to be a key contributor for the Patriots. He had 10 targets in the earlier game at Buffalo this season.
ride these players FOR THE WIN
Lamar Jackson (BAL) at Cleveland - Baltimore needs one more win to secure the #1 seed in the AFC. In the earlier meeting, Jackson passed for 247 yards with 3 touchdowns and 9 rushes for 66 yards.
Jameis Winston and Breshad Perriman (TB) vs. Houston - One of the gems of Week 15 was Breshad Perriman who took the place of Mike Evans (hamstring) in the offense. Perriman answered the bell with three touchdowns en route to a stunning performance elevating many teams to the Championship game. With Chris Godwin now out with a hamstring injury, Perriman should be guaranteed an abundance of targets this week vs Houston. Justin Watson and O.J. Howard also move up the food chain - and don't overlook Cameron Brate as a "hope he performs" option. This week's opponent, Houston, has allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to quarterbacks since Week 11. Winston has the matchup to shine once again.
Drew Brees and Michael Thomas (NO) at Tennessee - The Saints are sitting pretty at 11-3, however, they are tied with Seattle and Green Bay, who both have the tiebreaker against them due to a better conference record. In short, New Orleans will be playing to win. Both Drew Brees and Michael Thomas are playing at an elite level and Week 16 should not be any different. Tennessee has allowed at least two touchdown passes in seven of the last ten games.
LET FOOTBALLGUYS DO THE LEGWORK FOR YOU
Fantasy Football is essentially making decisions on unknown expectations. Oh sure, we can get an idea of who to play based on trends, statistics, matchups, and opportunities, but the more you know, the better off you'll be. Research Vegas lines. Our John Lee does a great job of looking at each game's expected point totals to learn about which players to target in his weekly Vegas Value Chart You can also use DFS to give you an edge when determining your lineup. Each week we take a look at expected ownership percentages based on lineups that locked for Thursday night contests. Projecting roster percentages. A high ownership by the consensus of the daily fantasy world might be enough to persuade you to pencil in a particular player in your Championship game lineup. You'll be surprised how much this can help you. One last page that can help you is Sean Settle's weekly piece, Exposed WR/TE matchups. This article examines the good and bad matchups that receivers have against opposing cover corners. It's a great weekly read that can ultimately be the deciding factor on pulling the trigger on your WR4 or your flex option. *Please note these links are tagged with Week 16 articles that may not be published until Wednesday or Thursday of this week.
TWO QUARTERBACKS TO BE WARY OF STARTING
For the most part, ride with the horse that got you here, but here are three big-name quarterbacks who may not reach their usual production
Aaron Rodgers (GB) at Minnesota. This game has divisional implications. Minnesota is trying to win a playoff berth with one more win. Two more wins and a Packers loss to Detroit in Week 17 would earn them the NFC North title. Rodgers is sitting as the 9th best fantasy quarterback this season. He has fallen off some this year with only three games where he passed for 3 touchdowns or more. Minnesota has only allowed 3+ touchdown passes in two games this year. They have also allowed the 6th fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks since Week 11. Rodgers may have a legendary game in a script favored for Minnesota, but numbers, trends, and the Monday night home-field advantage suggests this could be a lower than usual game for Rodgers.
Josh Allen (BUF) at New England. Josh Allen is ranked 6th among fantasy quarterbacks this year, but this week's opponent is going to be difficult and one that you may want to shy away from for fantasy purposes. Buffalo will face the Patriots, on the road, in the cold, in a game that New England will want to win to keep a first-round bye. Buffalo is a gritty team, Allen leads all quarterbacks with 9 rushing touchdowns, and they may give New England a battle. However, the Patriots have allowed only two games where a quarterback has scored more than once, which includes rushing touchdowns.
Others to shy away from include Baker Mayfield vs BAL, Derek Carr at LAC, Tom Brady vs BUF, Mitchell Trubisky vs KC
TWO unlikely QUARTERBACKS TO CONSIDER STARTING
It's difficult to consider starting either of these quarterbacks in a Championship game, but if you're in a two-quarterback league, or if you are in dire need of a potential gem, take a flier on these favorable matchups
Drew Lock (DEN) vs Detroit - Lock's last game in the snow at Kansas City was uneventful, however the two games prior he had two scores against the Chargers, a feat only five quarterbacks accomplished this year, and a 300 yard, three-score game at Houston. Lock has shown some promise in his limited action, and now he'll face a Lions defense who just allowed Jameis Winston to gash them for 458 yards and 4 scores. This is the same team that allowed Mitchell Trubisky to pass for 338 yards and 3 scores two weeks prior. Detroit has allowed seven 300-yard games and 10 games of 2+ scores to quarterbacks.
Andy Dalton (CIN) at Miami - This one is all about the matchup. Miami has allowed at least two touchdown passes in 12 of their 14 games this year. They have only allowed four 300-yard games, but they are consistently giving in the touchdown department. Notable lower-tier quarterbacks who have scored at least two touchdowns against Miami include Case Keenum, Mason Rudolph, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, and Eli Manning. Dalton could be next on that list.
should you start D.J. Moore vs Indianapolis?
The Panthers are out of the playoff race and have decided to give their third-round pick Will Grier his first start this week at Indianapolis. Grier struggled to stand out in the preseason and when Kyle Allen was rewarded the starter after Cam Newton went down, many thought Grier wasn't ready. That isn't untrue, but the real question is - is he ready now? We'll soon find out, but is it enough pause to consider shying away from D.J. Moore? Moore is 7th among wide receivers in PPR fantasy ranking through Week 15. He has ten games of six catches or more and has four 100-yard games that came in the last seven games. It's a risky move to start Moore with a rookie quarterback who hasn't shown anything yet, but he did reach those levels with none other than Kyle Allen at quarterback, who has turned the ball over 22 times in 12 games. Can it get any worse? Perhaps this information will sway your decision? On the other side of the ball, Indianapolis has allowed 11 touchdowns to wide receivers in the last five games.
CAN YOU RELY ON Nick Chubb, LeVeon Bell, Todd Gurley, or James Conner?
All of the above running backs are faced with a matchup against a top 5 defense against the run in the last six games. If you're stuck with needing to insert one of these players into your lineup, your chances of a big outing are slim. You may want to consider other backs who could make a splash in Week 16, such as Devonta Freeman vs Jacksonville, Marlon Mack vs Carolina, or Ronald Jones II vs Houston
WHO ARE SOME WAIVER PICKUPS THAT YOU CAN POTENTIALLY START THIS WEEK?
Mike Boone, Minnesota - This list starts and ends with the Vikings Mike Boone. Both Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison are questionable to play this week, leaving Boone as the team's primary option at running back.
Chris Conley, Jacksonville - Gardner Minshew found Conley for two scores last week against the Raiders. He could find similar success this week at Atlanta.
Greg Ward, Philadelphia - The Eagles are thin at wide receiver. After Zach Ertz, Ward has the most targets (21) on the team in the last three games.
Jonnu Smith, Tennessee - After A.J. Brown, Smith has the most receptions and touchdowns for the Titans in the last two games. He showed promise against the Texans last week.
Kerryon Johnson, Detroit - It's possible that Johnson could return to the lineup this week and suit up against Denver. Detroit is running low on running backs, especially with Bo Scarbrough nursing sore ribs.
Breshad Perriman, Tampa Bay - If nobody in your league added him last week, definitely grab him. He should be able to reach 5 receptions as one of the team's only healthy receivers that Jameis Winston can rely on.
Boston Scott, Philadelphia - Scott has 13 catches on 13 targets in the last two games. Look for Philadelphia to utilize him again in a similar role against the Cowboys.
Kenyan Drake, Arizona - It's more than likely that Drake is on another team if he's not on your roster. In the rare case that he is not, he's a must-add.
Myles Gaskin, Miami - The cupboard is starting to get bare with waiver wire running backs. Gaskin was decent last week against the Giants and this week he'll face a struggling Bengals team.
Feel free to reach me on twitter with any questionable lineup decisions. As always, good luck to you. Go earn the Championship!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to haseley@footballguys.com