Each week, Footballguys staff members will share the big movers in their respective Dynasty Rankings. Since the contributors will rotate, please check in weekly. The focus of this article will be on the “why” more than the movement itself. Dynasty Rankings are fluid and we hope that sharing the rationale will help you in your quest to create dynasties with all your teams. The diversity of rankings will result in a variety of opinions weekly.
Quarterbacks
Hicks
Kyler Murray - I’m not sure what everyone else is thinking, but I have been impressed by how Kyler Murray has played to date. This whole scenario projected as a dumpster fire, but Murray has hung in there, been tough and has more touchdowns than interceptions while putting up yardage in two of his three games. This is without much coming from his feet, which were expected to frighten NFL defenses. The key test will be the halfway point of the season when the clown show Arizona is running falls to 1-7 or 0-8. Can Murray get through a horrible rookie season intact physically and mentally?
Gardner Minshew - Whether Gardner Minshew becomes a short-term cult hero or a long-term starter is still to play out, but one thing is for sure his temperament is solid. He has started with a high completion percentage, has five touchdowns to one interception and even looked impressive on his legs. It doesn’t look like there is much more that Nick Foles, a Super Bowl MVP could have done than the sixth-round rookie. His fantasy numbers aren’t going to win you a league, but they are going to keep Jacksonville competitive.
Aaron Rodgers - Green Bay is 3-0 and Aaron Rodgers is barely a fantasy backup to this stage of the season. Rodgers has been methodical and made no mistakes and the team has not needed to air it out with an impressive start by their defense. Things change quickly in the NFL and we know that Rodgers can deliver if required. Until he does though, he must move down fantasy rankings.
Tefertiller
Cam Newton – Even before the foot injury was disclosed that forced him out of Week 3, Newton was moving down the rankings. Gone are the arm strength and affinity of running the football. Without these, he is a mediocre starting quarterback. The foot injury will make it difficult to sell him for a while. With Kyle Allen playing well, there may not be a push to bring Newton back.
Ben Roethlisberger – The serious elbow injury combined with age should be enough for most dynasty players to discount the veteran quarterback. There is a chance that Mason Rudolph claims the starting job long-term with strong play. Also, there is no guarantee Roethlisberger plays again. He has made ample money and could walk away, not wanting to go through the pain and risk of potential injury playing could induce.
Gardner Minshew – Minshew has played very well since replacing Nick Foles. The Jaguars offense looked good against Tennessee on Thursday evening and Minshew has a chance to “Wally Pipp” Foles. His calm demeanor and passing accuracy give Minshew a chance to be a long-term NFL starter.
Mitchell Trubisky – Having never been a fan of Trubisky’s accuracy or pocket presence, I wanted to give him a few weeks not to fall into confirmation bias. Trubisky does not look like a quarterback that can lead the Bears deep into the playoffs. The schedule is an easy one so there is no excuse not to make the postseason, especially with the stellar defense.
Marcus Mariota – While he showed flashed of brilliance at Oregon, Mariota looks lost as a professional. If the poor play continues, he will be replaced by Ryan Tannehill. The team has invested in the receiving corps and strong running game put the quarterback in a position to succeed but he has yet to deliver the goods.
Parsons
Kyler Murray – He has passed the opening three games test, flashing a number of high-level throws from the pocket and, in Week 3, adding the rushing potential as one of the more athletic quarterbacks at the position. The floor has improved for Murray as the bust risk is reduced by the week and the biggest concern is the offensive line, which played better than expected in the first two games and eroded as a clear detriment last week.
Marcus Mariota – Mariota has a minimal chance to maintain his starting role by the end of the season at his current rate. Tennessee has a good enough to challenge for a playoff spot with even average quarterback play, however, Mariota has been anything but that through three weeks. One of my predictions before the season was Ryan Tannehill sees more starts for the Titans than Mariota and that was independent of an injury, strictly based on Mariota’s poor play. Through Week 3, I stand by my prediction.
Running Back
Tefertiller
Dalvin Cook – Cook moves into the top 5 at the position. He has been terrific this season. With Cook, the talent has never been questioned, just durability. Minnesota has moved to a run-oriented offense, leaning on Cook to make plays.
Derrick Henry – Henry has led the Titans offense. He scores touchdowns and is the main cog of the offense. In a year where many top tailbacks are disappointing, he moves upward.
LeVeon Bell – We were leery of Bell in New York, but he is still getting enough receptions to buoy poor rushing performances. The Jets will get better offensively, and Bell is the centerpiece of the offense. Having Luke Falk replace Sam Darnold is never a good thing for the running game.
Austin Ekeler – Ekeler must be considered as the de facto 2020 Chargers starting tailback. He possibly could push Melvin Gordon into a committee the way he is playing.
Parsons
Chris Carson – Carson is in the Seattle doghouse with his recent string of fumbles and questionable-at-best play in Week 3. As a fan of Rashaad Penny and C.J. Prosise, I would argue Carson is the third-best talent on his own depth chart with minimal wiggle room to keep the starting job for long. Prosise is healthy - finally - and Penny has Round 1 pedigree. Carson is barely inside the top-15 backs in my aWORP (adjusted wins over replacement player) metric and I would project him to slip into the 20s relatively soon.
Sony Michel – Michel has been one of the more surprising players to track through three weeks. While I was a firm disbeliever in Michel as a Round 1 pick nor one to back his health, I did not see his role or production devolving to this level. Michel is a glorified goal-line back with Rex Burkhead looking like the clear better fit for all parts of the field, especially in the passing game. I figured Damien Harris would threaten Michel's work (or Michel's own durability), but not Burkhead at least at this point in the season.
Hicks
Alvin Kamara - After a quieter-than-expected start for his fantasy managers, Alvin Kamara came to life in week three. 160 yards, two touchdowns, and nine receptions tend to be a good result. If the plan was to turn to your most potent weapon in the absence of your franchise quarterback, then mission accomplished. The gut feel here though is more inconsistency from Kamara down the line and while he should still easily be an RB1, it may be toward the middle and bottom end rather than the top.
Nick Chubb - With the relative failure of the Browns passing game to light it up to date, it has been solid running from Nick Chubb that has kept the Browns in games. Any thought of other players currently on suspension taking away playing time must be put to rest. Chubb is currently carrying this team and looking good doing so. If the touchdowns come, expect Chubb to exceed most preseason projections.
Kerryon Johnson - Kerryon Johnson is one of several backs in the NFL with disastrous yards per carry to open the season. This obviously should and will improve for the better runners, doubts have to be expressed that Johnson can be the franchise back the Lions have been looking for since Barry Sanders retired. Touchdowns are keeping him fantasy relevant, but only barely. While it is too early to panic, concern is definitely a valid expression at the moment.
James Conner - With the absence of the star quarterback and star receiver from last season, James Conner looks how you would expect a running back drafted in the late third, early fourth round to look. He has done his best and will not have the room he was used to last year and is likely to be viewed as a fantasy disappointment come the end of the season. Where this leaves him, the team and his future remain to be seen, but his value must be plummeting right now with optimism low.
Wide Receiver
Parsons
Corey Davis - I am still one of the biggest believers in Corey Davis long term, but Marcus Mariota is completely burying any chance Davis has to build on his quality 2018 season. Ryan Tannehill offers a chance to rebound if things turn south (more than already) in the coming weeks, but Davis is the new Amari Cooper or Davante Adams in my book where the profile is sturdy to bet on long term and if we have seen his best, Davis will go down as one of the bigger metric prospect busts of all time. That said, 2019 is looking like a wash season for Davis at present.
Marquise Brown – The rookie is already threatening fantasy starting lineup a few dozen snaps into his NFL career as the Baltimore rising tide passing game is the perfect fit for Brown to dominate an otherwise lackluster wide receiver depth chart. Brown is on the WR2-3-4 spectrum until further notice and can make a decent fantasy day on just a deep target or two in a given game.
Hicks
Davante Adams - Ranked by some as the number one fantasy receiver heading into 2019, anyone with Davante Adams must be concerned by the start to the season from Green Bay. The team and particularly the defense are playing well, but the passing game has been low energy to date. At this stage, it seems optimistic that Adams gets himself back into the WR1 category and offers on name reputation have to be considered very carefully. Of course, he could explode with a monster game at any moment, but this team seems more well-rounded than in years past.
Stefon Diggs - Six receptions for 101 yards and a touchdown is a great game for a receiver, but not the cumulative total for the first three games. Stefon Diggs is just one of the victims of the team’s desire to see as little of Kirk Cousins as possible and as much of the running game as they can get away with. There is no doubt that the Vikings will have to air it out sooner or later, but when waiver wire options are outperforming your WR2, it’s time to have a backup plan.
Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods - Sometimes to you must admit your mistakes. I didn’t think Cooper Kupp would have the role he was projecting towards before his ACL injury and I thought Robert Woods was a safe high WR2 for the next few years. What is clear is that Goff clearly favors getting the ball to the more versatile Kupp while he seems to force the ball to Woods in spots that make it difficult for the former Bill to shine. Individual game-planning means that depending on the strength or weakness of an opposing defense, Kupp could have some quiet games and Woods can shine, but the realistic scenario is that by seasons end Kupp is a better fantasy bet than Woods.
Tyrell Williams - The Antonio Brown drama forced Tyrell Williams into the number one role for the Raiders and he has given anyone starting him a good result. That said, Derek Carr only seems to see him in the endzone, not a bad thing, but his overall stats are going to look horrible without a touchdown. Carr seems to only have eyes for the Tight End and with the Raiders likely to be playing from behind, Williams could see an uptick once other options are needed. A good WR2 down the line.
Tefertiller
Antonio Brown – Now released by two teams and likely unsigned for the remainder of the 2019 season, Brown careens down the rankings. He is 31 years of age and may have played his last football. Yes, he could get his life together and rehab his career, but there is much risk in the volatile receiver’s dynasty future.
Terry McLaurin – McLaurin has been outstanding to begin the season. His combination of route running, speed, and knowledge of the game was underappreciated by the dynasty community. McLaurin is a player to buy before the price gets sky-high when college teammate Dwayne Haskins gets under center.
D.J. Chark – Chark has excelled this season. The team invested a high pick in him and Chark is healthy and flashing big-play skills. He still is undervalued in the dynasty community.
Diontae Johnson – After moving into the starting lineup over Donte Moncrief, Johnson should be considered a rising dynasty player. He is a strong route runner and will only get better at making big plays after the catch. Scoring a touchdown should give the coaches confidence in his ability to develop and grow into a viable starting receiver.
Tight End
Hicks
Darren Waller - If a 13 catch and 134-yard game don’t get your attention nothing will. With at least six catches in every game to date, and after the Jared Cook usage last year, it is clear that the Raider combination of Jon Gruden and Derek Carr use the position heavily. Darren Waller projects as a high-end fantasy option, just like Cook was in 2018. If you can get your hands on him somehow, do it.
Jared Cook - It has been clear for years, ever since Jimmy Graham left, that New Orleans does not rely on the Tight End anymore for high-end production. It is also clear that Oakland does rely on the position and the 2018 resurgence of Jared Cook was a result of a system and the players' skill set. So far Cook has been a giant bust with the Saints recording only five receptions in three games. Expecting a free agent 32-year-old tight end to be fantasy productive is a mistake most managers should not make.
Tefertiller
T.J. Hockenson – The rookie has emerged to be a force in the Lions offense. He has been much better than advertised and has gotten better even since the preseason.
Darren Waller – I had him way too low given the Hard Knocks and training camp buzz. Waller is a focal point of the Raiders pass offense and will continue to grow and improve.
O.J. Howard – Howard has moved down the rankings due to his inconsistent play and decreased role in the Buccaneers offense. Coach Arians called him out two weeks ago and that should serve as a wake-up call. Still, it is difficult to rank him above high-producing players.
Mark Andrews – Andrews has been great this season. His ability combined with the Ravens scheming him into open areas of the field has led to many big plays.
Jordan Reed – The concussion that sidelined Reed several weeks ago might be the last of his career. With each week that passes, it becomes more difficult to think he comes back and plays at a high level. Vernon Davis has been playing well in his stead. Jeremy Sprinkle is a player to monitor.
Parsons
Darren Waller - Even if Darren Waller is not a long-term dynasty asset, he is poised to finish in the top-10, if not the top-5, this season. Waller is a receiver-like athlete on an Oakland team without a strong WR1, who is an easy matchup for Derek Carr to target within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. With more negative game scripts than not, Waller's floor is confidently high, and he is TE3 in aWORP (adjusted wins over replacement player) through three games behind only Evan Engram and Travis Kelce.
Jimmy Graham – Graham has eroded quickly on a physical front and the journey has continued with multiple injuries early in 2019. Jace Sternberger is on injury reserve, who I expected to strongly challenge Graham by midseason, so the depth chart is pretty dry otherwise. But I would be surprised if Graham is inside the top-18 tight ends for the season despite his attachment to Aaron Rodgers and long track record of production.
If you would like to review our most recent Dynasty rankings, here is a link.