DFS Roundtable: Target and Fade Running Backs

Chad Parsons's DFS Roundtable: Target and Fade Running Backs Chad Parsons Published 11/13/2019

Pick at least one running back from each subset you prefer to target and fade (so four selections total) for Week 11:

High-Salary

Christian McCaffrey (vs. Atlanta)
Dalvin Cook (vs. Denver)
Ezekiel Elliott (at Detroit)
Josh Jacobs (vs. Cincinnati)

Low-Salary

Brian Hill (at Carolina)
J.D. McKissic (vs. Dallas)
Miles Sanders (vs. New England)
Kalen Ballage (vs. Buffalo)

JAMES BRIMACOMBE

High-Salary

Target: Christian McCaffrey (vs. Atlanta) – I think just like Lamar Jackson at quarterback you almost just have to force in McCaffrey and build your roster around him no matter the cost. The amount of volume and production that he is seeing right now is ridiculous and it is almost equivalent to two or three players combined. Through nine games, McCaffrey is averaging 25.9 touches, 153.9 yards, and 1.6 touchdowns per game. It will be hard to ignore him this week against the Falcons at home regardless of his price tag.

Fade: Ezekiel Elliott (at Detroit) – Fade for now as the Vikings showed on Sunday night if you can focus on shutting down Elliott and take your chances of Prescott and the passing offense beating you that it is worth it. Elliott seems to keep having so-so type of games at a high DFS salary and just doesn’t have the production to pay it off.

Low-Salary

Target: Miles Sanders (vs. New England) – Sanders feels like a solid target this week against the Patriots as he offers some upside in what, could be a high scoring game. With the Eagles coming off a bye week, Sanders could see some extra run in this competitive game. He will be a nice pivot off of a chalky Brian Hill and might come with more upside.

Fade: Kalen Ballage (vs. Buffalo) – I am taking a hard stance on fading all Dolphins players for the rest of the season. They continue to send off their talented players with trades or injuries and the remaining product is one of the most watered-down offenses we have seen in a long time. The matchup against the Bills is one that does not benefit the Dolphins running game either.

JASON WOOD

Full disclosure, I like all four high-salary running backs this week. They're four of my top-5 choices at the position (along with Leonard Fournette) for the main slate. Based purely on my rankings, Elliott slots fourth (fifth overall) but, again, I wouldn't advise fading him particularly if you're building multiple lineups. My top-rated back of the bunch is Josh Jacobs. The Raiders are much better than I expected, and Jacobs is Jon Gruden's new Cadillac Williams. Jacobs will be an old-school workhorse until he's too beaten up to handle the workload.

On the low-salary side, I have zero interest in McKissic. He's a gimmicky player and I don't know how you confidently build lineups with him, particularly with Stafford's status up in the air.

I can see Miles Sanders playing well against New England, particularly as the Eagles appear to have found an identity as a power-running team. But my favorite of this quartet is easily Brian Hill. The Falcons coaches made it clear Hill will be given the opportunity to handle a three-down workload with Devonta Freeman doubtful. It's his time to shine.

PHIL ALEXANDER

High-Salary Target

Josh Jacobs has a 30-touch upside with Oakland favored by double-digits at home. Part of me wants to say the Raiders shouldn't be favored by 10+ points against any NFL team, but they're in the midst of a playoff run and Bengals' rookie quarterback, Ryan Finley, looked overmatched last week in his NFL debut. Oakland should be able to control the clock by riding Jacobs on their way to an easy win.

As an added bonus on DraftKings, Jacobs saw a career-high five targets in Week 10. Hopefully, the Raiders have realized Jacobs has been a smooth pass-catcher since coming out of Alabama and are finally putting more passing-game work on his plate.

High-Salary Fade

Like Jason, I'm not eager to fade any of the running backs listed. Elliott has been held back by a lack of involvement in the passing game, but fading him against the worst rush defense in the sport doesn't feel like the right play.

Christian McCaffrey is in the midst of the best fantasy season a running back has ever had. He's long since proven himself immune to bad matchups and he happens to have a very good one this week against the Falcons.

The implied game script doesn't get much better for Dalvin Cook with the Vikings favored by 10.5 at home over Denver.

If I had to fade one to save my mother's life, I guess it would be Cook. Maybe he's not called upon to catch as many passes if the Vikings open up a big lead? And perhaps Alexander Mattison gets more involved in the event of a blowout? In any event, be advised this take is as tepid as they come.

Low-Salary Target

Kalen Ballage stinks. He's awful and so is the Dolphins offensive line. But his usage in Miami's first game without Kenyan Drake and Mark Walton was Leonard Fournette-lite. He was in on 86% of the snaps and touched the ball 24 times for an 83% share of the team's total backfield touches in Week 10. At $4,300 (DraftKings), we can't just ignore that usage -- especially in a home game against Buffalo. The Bills have allowed the sixth-most normalized fantasy points to opposing running backs over the last five games.

Low-Salary Fade

Could Miles Sanders turn in a GPP-winning performance? Sure, but it's in his upper-90th percentile range of outcomes. Even in their last game before the bye, when the Eagles gave him double-digit carries for the first time since Week 5, he topped out at 40% of the snaps. I'm a big believer in Sanders' talent, and the loss of DeSean Jackson should keep him running more downfield pass routes, but it's hard to get too excited with values like Hill (and even Ballage) in the same price range.


DAN HINDERY

High-Salary
Of the four high-priced backs listed, Josh Jacobs is my favorite target primarily because he isn’t as costly as the other options. On DraftKings, Jacobs is at least $2,000 cheaper than each of the other three and that savings is big this week given the lack of strong value options. Jacobs has a strong combination of floor and ceiling. He has at least 17 touches in six straight games and should easily hit that touch floor again this week. He has also shown his ceiling both in terms of touches and fantasy production. In two of the last six, he had 28+ touches and in those two outings topped 120 rushing yards and scored multiple touchdowns in both games. The matchup doesn’t get much better than facing the demoralized Bengals defense that will have to travel to the west coast after a humiliating home blowout against Baltimore. Cincinnati ranks 7th worst against running backs in normalized strength of schedule over the last five games and things have been even worse than the numbers indicate because two of those games were against Baltimore and Lamar Jackson ran all over them too.

I’m not actually fading any of these top four backs. I’ll want to have heavy exposure to each in tournaments. However, I will note that Ezekiel Elliott is too risky to consider in cash games at this point. He has had three straight games where he has essentially been a non-factor as a pass-catcher (14 or fewer receiving yards) and he hasn’t been very consistent in terms of touchdowns either (just six total on the season). I also view Christian McCaffrey as a better cash game option than a tournament target. His floor is unmatched and there is merit to jamming him into your cash lineup and knowing you are very likely to get 25+ fantasy points. For tournaments, the case is tougher to make given his pricing and the lack of value. Unless he scores 40+, there are going to be plenty of better point per dollar plays and the lack of value at other positions means rostering McCaffrey in tournaments probably limits your overall upside.

Low-Salary
Brian Hill is my favorite of the low-priced backs. He has always impressed me as a runner and has seemed like the type of guy who would be able to take advantage if he ever got the opportunity to get some volume. I was disappointed when he didn’t make the Bengals roster in 2018 after he looked great during the preseason. With both Ito Smith and Devonta Freeman sidelined, he should be in line for a big workload against Carolina. Hill didn’t put up big numbers last week against New Orleans (71 yards and 1 touchdown on 21 touches) but he helped lead an upset against a very good run defense. In fact, New Orleans has been the third-stingiest against opposing running backs over the past five games. His matchup improves immensely this week, facing a Carolina defense that is dead last against running backs over their last five games in normalized strength of schedule.

Kalen Ballage
Kalen Ballage should have a similar opportunity as Hill in terms of workload. However, I have no confidence in his ability to take advantage of his touches. Not to be overly flippant, but Ballage just doesn’t seem to be very good at football. At the very least, he seems to be lacking in confidence out there, especially as a pass-catcher. He is currently averaging 2.6 yards per target and one could make a solid blooper reel out of just those 16 targets. Miami has shown some fight and Buffalo has given up yardage on the ground, but there are better spots to attack than hoping Ballage suddenly figures it out this week.
Photos provided by Imagn Images
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