Review of Last Week
Last week, we ended the season off strong finishing in the top 10% of all of the cash games that were entered. This ended the season incredibly strong as five of the last six weeks all placed within the top half of 50/50’s.
WHat went well?
- Jamison Crowder at 5% owned was a big reason for the success of the lineup as the slot receiver showed that once again the Bills struggle to defend the position as he had 8 receptions for 66 yards and a touchdown.
- Jets defense at 30% was another big reason for success. As expected, the Bills only played their starters for a short portion of the game as Josh Allen only threw the ball five times while Matt Barkley saw a majority of the snaps in this one.
- A.J. Brown at 17% was the final low owned player who succeeded. Brown bounced back tremendously after being shut down the previous week against Marshon Lattimore. Brown had his way against the weak Texans secondary.
What went Wrong?
- The only true mistake on this slate was playing Matt Ryan at $7,800. Ryan was not terrible throwing for 313 yards and a touchdown, but with Dak Prescott being in the same price range, he was likely the quarterback to go to as he threw for 303 yards and 4 touchdowns.
How to approach playoff DFS Slates?
Playoff DFS can be a lot of fun, but at the same time, we have to realize what it is. Essentially it is a glorified afternoon slate and from a bankroll, standpoint should be treated accordingly. This is not the time to chase losses or try to increase your profit. This is a slate that many people are going to end up on very similar lineups due to the lack of choices, and therefore it will drive a significant overlap.
Situations that Stand Out this Week on the Main Slate
- New Orleans (vs Minnesota)- 29 points
- New England (vs Tennessee)- 24 points
- Seattle (vs Philadelphia)- 23 points
Cash Game Strategy Week 18
Lineup Construction
Lineup construction is critical this week as there are a few optimal lineups that can be build based on the choices that you make at the running back and tight end position.
Running Backs
There really are a limited number of viable running back options heading into this week.
|
Player |
Cash Viable |
Thoughts |
|
No |
The lone bell-cow running back on this slate. Is really expensive and is facing a Patriots defense that will sell out to stop Henry. |
|
|
Yes |
Minnesota’s run defense has fallen apart. More on Kamara later in the article. |
|
|
Maybe |
The matchup is a tough one facing a Saints team that has not allowed a running back to top 83 yards and are allowing just 65 yards per game, and he could be less than 100% healthy, but he is cheap for the talent. |
|
|
Yes |
Remains too cheap on FanDuel, more to come on Singletary |
|
|
No |
Eagles defense is too good, and Homer won’t see the goal-line touches as those will go to Marshawn Lynch |
|
|
No |
Not able to be trusted after being far less than 100%. Expect a split scenario with Sanders and Boston Scott |
|
|
Maybe |
Hyde has been inconsistent, the upside is somewhat lacking against an above average Bills run defense, but will see 15 touches, and will receive the goal-line work at a good price. |
At the Tight End Position, there are a very small number of options this week.
|
Player |
Cash Viable |
Thoughts |
|
Maybe |
The concern here is that Zach Ertz may play. If Ertz plays, Goedert is not viable, the problem is that it is a two day slate this week. |
|
|
Maybe |
Relies on big plays, but has a 20-yard reception or longer in 9 straight games and every game except one this year. |
|
|
No |
Just not cheap enough for the lack of upside. |
|
|
Maybe |
Has seen a downtick in targets recently, but does have six touchdowns on the year which at $5k is all you’re hoping for. |
INJURY UNLOCKS OPPORTUNITY?
- Zach Ertz looks like he will miss this game as he is still not cleared for contact. Dallas Goedert should be one of the top tight ends on this slate. Ertz claims he’s optimistic that he will play this week, but it seems highly unlikely.
- Miles Sanders is dealing with an ankle injury that while it looks like he might play as he returned to practice, he almost assuredly will be limited in this game.
- Nelson Agholor looks like he will miss this game leaving the Eagles incredibly thin at the wide receiver position. Greg Ward should benefit as one of the lone receivers who has had week-to-week consistency for the Eagles.
- Both Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison should return this week for the Vikings.
Key Cash Core
Michael Thomas- $8,900
The Vikings secondary is one in which it still has the allure of being a good unit, but in reality it is one of the worst in football at defending the wide receiver position. On the season, the Vikings have allowed nine wide receivers to top 90 yards and have allowed the seventh most FanDuel points to opposing wide receivers. Michael Thomas will see a lot of Xavier Rhodes in this one which is a major problem for the Vikings as Rhodes who used to be one of the top cornerbacks in football has regressed to one of the worst cornerbacks this season.
Alvin Kamara- $8,200
By starting with Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas on a slate in which the Saints are projected to score 29 points is a great way to start the build of a cash game lineup. Kamara over the last two weeks has scored four touchdowns after only having one touchdown for the season. The good news for Kamara and the Saints is that the Vikings run defense has fallen on hard times as of late as since Week 13, they’ve allowed three 100-yard running backs, and an average of 133 yards rushing per game and seven receptions for 49 yards per game. This is a game in which Kamara should be heavily featured.
Houston’s run defense started the year off well, but the second-half of the year has fallen apart. Even excluding Week 17 in a game in which Derrick Henry ran for 211 yards and 3 touchdowns, Houston has still given up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Singletary has shown that he can handle the full workload of carries as he is averaging 17 carries over his last six games. At just $6,200, expect Singletary to be one of the more popular plays this week.
LINEUPS
ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 116.5)
- QB Russell Wilson, SEA, $7,900
- RB Carlos Hyde, HOU, $6,400
- RB Devin Singletary, BUF, $6,200
- WR- Michael Thomas, NO, $8,900
- WR John Brown, BUF, $6,500
- WR Greg Ward, PHI, $5,600
- TE Jared Cook, NO, $6,500
- Flex RB- Alvin Kamara, NO, $8,200
- TD Seattle Seahawks, $3,600
ROSTER 2 ($60K) – LINEUP 2- Kyle Rudolph Lineup (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 116.4)
- QB Drew Brees, NO, $8,500
- RB Carlos Hyde, HOU, $6,400
- RB Devin Singletary, BUF, $6,200
- WR- Michael Thomas, NO, $8,900
- WR Julian Edelman, NE, $7,000
- WR DK Metcalf, SEA, $6,200
- TE Kyle Rudolph, MIN, $5,000
- Flex RB- Alvin Kamara, NO, $8,200
- TD Seattle Seahawks, $3,600
ROSTER 3 ($60K) – CASH+ GPP Lineup (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 114.1)
- QB Russell Wilson, SEA, $7,900
- RB Carlos Hyde, HOU, $6,400
- RB Devin Singletary, BUF, $6,200
- WR- Michael Thomas, NO, $8,900
- WR DeAndre Hopkins, HOU, $8,300
- WR Greg Ward Jr, PHI, $5,600
- TE Dawson Knox, BUF $4,800
- Flex RB- Alvin Kamara, NO, $8,200
- TD Tennessee Titans, $3,600
Any questions on your cash game lineup, feedback on the article, or want a friend to talk to? Send me a message on Twitter below. Or send me an email at knotts@footballguys.com