Cracking FanDuel: Week 17

Photo: USA Today Sports

Sunday Morning Update-

This week, the Sunday Morning update may be more critical as there are so many unclear situations. If we hear that a backup running back is getting a full workload that could significantly change lineups here.

• There is some heavy rain going on in Cincinnati/Cleveland and the Over/Under has dropped from 46.5 to 43 indicating that Vegas is concerned about it. Normally wind is a bigger deal than rain, but if it is raining hard enough it certainly matters. This has me somewhat sour on the game as a whole as it is two bad teams facing off. It definitely has me off of John Ross and now scrambling to find some value on this slate.
• Reports and speculation is that Ryquell Armstead will see the bulk of the carries in Jacksonville instead of a split backfield with Devine Ozigbo. Not that surprising as Ozigbo has not played all season outside of special teams, but this firmly puts Armstead in play this week if he is going to get 15+ touches at minimum price even in a somewhat difficult matchup against Indianapolis.
• Ezekiel Elliott over Alvin Kamara. Look, Kamara had a fantastic game last week without a doubt, but in a Week 17 game that they'll have in full control, will he play the full game, or will they potentially bring Latavius Murray in more once they get up in this game? Elliott seems slightly safer than Kamara if you can afford him this week which with Armstead the lineup I'm playing allows me to play him.

Cash Lineup as of 11:15AM EST

• QB Matt Ryan, ATL, $7,800
• RB Ryquell Armstead, JAX, $4,500
• RB Aaron Jones, GB, $8,000
• WR- Jamison Crowder, NYJ, $5,600
• WR Julio Jones, ATL, $8,500
• WR A.J. Brown, TEN, $7,200
• TE Dallas Goedert, PHI, $6,400
• Flex RB- Ezekiel Elliott, DAL, $8,700
• TD New York Jets, $3,200

REVIEW OF LAST WEEK-

Last week was another positive week lifted up mostly by some late heroics by Tyler Eifert and the duo of Julio Jones and Michael Thomas to overcome the injury of Chris Carson and Keenan Allen continuing to struggle.

Mistakes:

The mistake that was made was not playing Alvin Kamara as he was popular due to his very low price of $7,200. The matchup was a good one against Tennessee, but not a great one as Tennessee’s defensive line has been solid for most of the year. Kamara broke out of his touchdown slump by scoring two in this game which was more than he had scored all season on the ground.

Tyler Boyd was another popular play that had a huge game with 9 receptions 128 yards and 2 touchdowns. At $6,300 he was a guy who if you played him you likely did very well.

Devonta Freeman was 54% owned and had a breakout game. The matchup could not have been better for Freeman going up against a Jaguars team that has mostly given up at trying to stop the run this season. Freeman had 127 yards and two touchdowns along with 9 receptions as the Falcons just had their entire offense run through Freeman and Jones.

With these three as popular as they were it amazes me that the lineup was able to fit inside the cash line this week with 147.12 points.

General Tips- Week 17

Everything that is going to be talked about in the rest of the article is going to be how ugly this slate is this week. It can be extremely ugly, but don’t try to overcomplicate it by taking major risks on players who you think will see an uptick in production this week.

Here are the criteria that I’m using this week to selecting players. Using these criteria keeps about 16 teams in play, I’m sure there are a few other teams that have been eliminated and are still playing hard, but these are the team’s that are on my list for targeting. Even with this list, 16 teams is plenty to choose starters from.

1) Does the team have something to play for? (Kansas City, New England, Oakland, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Dallas, Green Bay, New Orleans, Philadelphia)

2) Has the team been eliminated for a while and still playing hard (Cincinnati, Atlanta, New York Jets, Miami, Indianapolis, Arizona, Tampa Bay)

3) Is the player going for a record or a milestone that will enable him to maximize his touches? (Christian McCaffrey)

CASH GAME STRATEGY WEEK 17

Evaluating the Quarterback Position

If you’re still reading this in Week 17, you’ve likely been following along for most of the year, and as you know most weeks the first player we’ve locked in has been Lamar Jackson at least in the second half of the season. With no Jackson this week, it is an interesting week for quarterbacks as there are several contenders.

Matt Ryan- Matt Ryan, for the most part, this season has been extremely consistent, as he has thrown for over 300 yards in 10 of his 14 games this season, and two of the games he did not he was replaced by Matt Schaub during the game. Ryan is facing a Tampa Bay defense that has a reputation of being horrendous against the pass and early in the season they certainly were that, but they have improved over the last few weeks as they have not allowed a quarterback to throw for 300 yards since Week 10, and have allowed the 9^th fewest FanDuel points. The Buccaneers cut Vernon Hargreaves and went young going with Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis on the outside and both players have been playing extremely well over the last few weeks. This is still by no means a perfect defense as the Buccaneers have major issues at the safety position in rookie Mike Edwards and Andrew Adams, which could lead to a big day for Julio Jones, but Ryan is not as safe as we might think this week.

Tom Brady- Brady gets the benefit of facing Miami’s secondary that has all but fallen apart over the last six weeks. They are allowing 307 yards and 2.8 touchdowns per game as the lack of talent is finally catching up to them as they are playing two undrafted players who are in their first year as a starter at cornerback in Nik Needham and Jomal Wiltz, and at safety lack experience with Montre Harrage who is an undrafted rookie and Adrian Colbert who was cut by Seattle earlier this year. The problem with Brady is we don’t know where his elbow is at, he is saying it is a non-issue and looked good last week, but outside of a garbage-time performance against Houston, Brady has not thrown for 300 yards or three touchdowns since Week 6.

Dak Prescott- Prescott is interesting as the Redskins fell apart last week against the Giants allowing Daniel Jones to have a career day with 352 yards and 5 touchdowns. In a game in which they have to win, Prescott has not been great over the last five weeks as he has failed to throw for 300 yards and 3 touchdowns, but the volume is still there as he has thrown for 44 times or more in three of his last four games.

Ryan Tannehill- The last contender for cash game viability is Ryan Tannehill. If you were to look at Houston, they have one of the worst secondaries in football and it should not be that surprising considering they are starting two castaways from bad secondaries in Vernon Hargreaves (TB), and Gareon Conley (OAK). Since Week 5, the Texans secondary has allowed three touchdowns or more to seven quarterbacks, and have allowed 300 yards or more to six quarterbacks. In a must-win game Tannehill provides a nice floor, but may not have the upside this week as you are hoping for a rushing touchdown similar to his first game against Houston. The other risk here is that Deshaun Watson may not play the entire game limiting Tannehill’s upside.

Answer- All of these players have some risk this week, and while I would love to go up and spend on a Patrick Mahomes II, even that matchup is a difficult one and at $8,600 is not in consideration. This week, Matt Ryan is the guy unless further value opens up over the next 24 hours. While Tampa has been better as of late, they are still going to have their hands full with the Falcons offense and Julio Jones and at $7,600 with the elite run defense that Tampa has will force the Falcons to throw for a majority of this game.

INJURY UNLOCKS OPPORTUNITY?

• Zach Ertz is out, which makes Dallas Goedert the top tight end on the slate and should be in everyone’s cash game lineup.
• Leonard Fournette is doubtful with a neck injury this week which likely does not mean much in cash considering they are not on our list of teams for cash that we are considering. It would likely be a mix of Devine Ozigbo and Ryquell Armstead as the starting running backs.
• Dalvin Cook is out and Alexander Mattison is doubtful/questionable. This is another scenario where these teams are not on the teams that we are considering, but if both are out, Mike Boone becomes a sneaky GPP play as everyone was burned by him last week.
• Kyler Murray is a game-time decision for the Cardinals after leaving last week’s game with a hamstring injury. It seems unlikely that he will play as the Cardinals promoted Drew Anderson from the practice squad this week. Brett Hundley will start and if he was the minimum price he would be interesting, but at $7,000 is probably a pass.
• The Ravens, Texans, Rams, Vikings, and Bills are all at risk of not starting their starters or benching them half-way through the game. They should be on your avoid list this week.
• Jamaal Williams is out with a shoulder injury which will make Aaron Jones one of the top plays this week.

KEY CASH CORE

Alvin Kamara- $7,600

Carolina’s run defense has all but given up at this point of the season. Since Week 12, Carolina is allowing 170 yards and 2.0 touchdowns per game to opposing running backs which comes out to 35.6 FanDuel points per game. There is always a risk when it comes to Kamara, just because his touches are not that of a conventional running back as he has not had a game in which he had 15 or more carries since Week 5, but he makes up for it in the passing game. Expect a touchdown this week from the Saints running back along with big upside from a yardage perspective.

Aaron Jones- $8,000

This is a scenario in which if Jamaal Williams was active, Jones would be squarely on the fade list, as how quickly we forget his downside as he has 8 games this season with 50 yards or less. However, with that said, with no Jamaal Williams this week, this is a situation in which you have to play Aaron Jones due to his ownership being as high as it is. Detroit has been better since their early-season struggles but did allow 109 yards to Phillip Lindsay last week and their linebacking play has been abysmal all season. Jones is just too dynamic of a runner that when he is getting the consistent touches is going to break a few long runs against almost any defense. This is a scenario where you just play him and move on.

Julio Jones- $8,500

At $8,500 Julio’s price is starting to creep up to the point where you need to consider whether you are going to start him, but in a week that has very limited options at the top-end of wide receivers, Jones is the clear-cut guy this week. Over his last two games, since Calvin Ridley has been out, Jones has an astonishing 35 targets for 290 yards. Expect more of the same this week as he is going up against Jamel Dean who as a rookie is playing well, but will have his hands full with Jones this week.

Dallas Goedert- $6,400

While spending down to save on the position seems like a move that could be optimal, Dallas Goedert is just in too good of a spot this week. With no Zach Ertz and a team that is already missing Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor, this is a spot where the Eagles are going to have to rely on Goedert for a majority of this game in order to move the ball consistently against the Giants in a must-win game.

Other Cash Game Considerations

LINEUPS

ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 134.5)

• QB Matt Ryan, ATL, $7,800
• RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $7,900
• RB Aaron Jones, GB, $8,000
• WR- Jamison Crowder, NYJ, $5,600
• WR Julio Jones, ATL, $8,500
• WR John Ross, CIN, $5,200
• TE Dallas Goedert, PHI, $6,400
• Flex RB- Joe Mixon, CIN, $7,300
• TD New York Jets, $3,200

ROSTER 2 ($60K) – LINEUP 2- Stars and Scrubs (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 133.1)

• QB Matt Ryan, ATL, $7,800
• RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL, $8,700
• RB Aaron Jones, GB, $8,000
• WR- Jamison Crowder, NYJ, $5,600
• WR Julio Jones, ATL, $8,500
• WR John Ross, CIN, $5,200
• TE Dallas Goedert, PHI, $6,400
• Flex RB- Kerryon Johnson, DET, $4,500
• TD New York Jets, $3,200

ROSTER 3 ($60K) – CASH+ Browns Bengals Stack (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 134.5)

• QB Andy Dalton, CIN, $6,900
• RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL, $8,700
• RB Aaron Jones, GB, $8,000
• WR- Jarvis Landry, CLE, $6,800
• WR Julio Jones, ATL, $8,500
• WR Tyler Boyd, CIN, $6,600
• TE Dallas Goedert, PHI, $6,400
• Flex RB- Kerryon Johnson, DET, $4,500
• TD Dallas Cowboys, $3,600

Any questions on your cash game lineup, feedback on the article, or want a friend to talk to? Send me a message on Twitter below. Or send me an email at knotts@footballguys.com

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