SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE:
Each Sunday Morning, check back here to see if there are any updates to the primary cash game lineup. Hit me up on Twitter with any questions
No major updates today. One thing I think could be fun is posting some of the questions I've received on Twitter.
Why DJ Moore over DeVante Parker?
It's really close between the two of them. The only reason Moore gets the slight nod is that he has produced for a longer period of time than Parker. The Jets on the year have also had secondary wide receivers burn them as their safeties have done a good job shutting down the number one receiver.
Why Evans over Godwin?
This one has haunted me all season. I expect Evans to see more Pierre Desir due to the size of Desir. Desir has been awful for most of the season.
Why Atlanta's defense when you have two Panthers players
This one is really simple. 1) Ian Thomas is basically a free square. 2) Kyle Allen has been sacked 16 times over the last three games including throwing 5 interceptions. 3) Atlanta's defense is at least $500 too cheap.
First update 5:33PM EST Saturday:
Le'Veon Bell is out tomorrow.
Updated lineup
- QB Lamar Jackson, BAL, $9,000
- RB Nick Chubb, CLE, $7,900
- RB Bilal Powell, NYJ, $4,800
- WR- D.J. Moore, CAR, $7,100
- WR Davante Adams, GB, $8,400
- WR Mike Evans, TB, $7,700
- TE Ian Thomas, CAR, $4,000
- Flex RB- Melvin Gordon, LAC, $7,300
- TD Atlanta Falcons, $3,500
SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.
- Minnesota (vs Det) – 27.75 points
- Green Bay (vs Was) – 27 points
- New England (vs KC) – 26 points
- Houston (vs Den) – 25.75 points
- Tampa Bay (vs Ind) – 25.25 points
REVIEW OF LAST WEEK-
Last week was another great week. DeVante Parker crushed the slate and for the second week in a row, the primary cash lineup was in the top 5% of lineups. Jack Doyle at 26% owned was a great value play at the tight end position, and the Steelers defense shut down the Browns at just 25% were a great addition. The one disappointment was Christian McCaffrey who had just 13 FanDuel points, but he was 70% owned so it was not a big deal.
Some of the busts that we avoided.
Le’Veon Bell was 32% owned, which made sense at $7,300 against a bad Bengals defense, but Bell just is not the same player that we saw in Pittsburgh which made me avoid him this past week.
D.J. Chark was also 32% owned against a bad Tampa Bay secondary, but the Jaguars were dominated for most of the game and Chark was
Travis Kelce was a surprising 40% owned. With the wind being such a factor in Kansas City, it was a situation in which I was not considering anyone from the Chiefs passing game.
CASH GAME STRATEGY WEEK 11
SHOULD YOU PAY UP FOR MCCAFFREY?
We seemingly ask this question every week when evaluating our cash game strategy. McCaffrey is once again $11,000 as his price did not come down after his poor performance last week. Last week, we decided to pay the price against the Redskins, however this week the answer is different. The Falcons have a solid run defense allowing just 3.9 yards per carry and have been much more vulnerable against the pass compared to the run. The other difference this week is that several running backs are in good opportunities as Derrick Henry, Leonard Fournette, Nick Chubb, Melvin Gordon, Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, and even Jamaal Williams are all in a great spot this week.
INJURY UNLOCKS OPPORTUNITY?
Like most weeks, the Sunday Morning update is going to be a big deal this week. Several players are very questionable and will have significant lineup changes associated with them.
- There was some concern about Dalvin Cook this week as he has a chest injury. Mike Zimmer mentioned that “they would not play a guy that is hurt”. Cook was removed from the team’s injury report this week, so it appears he should be good to go. He is in a tremendous spot this week, but the only concern is whether he plays the full game if the game gets out of hand.
- Adam Thielen looks like he is doubtful this week with a hamstring injury. This should open up some opportunity for Stefon Diggs to continue to see near double-digit targets. Diggs has been fairly inconsistent even with the additional targets, but the matchup is a good one going up against a Lions defense that has allowed the fourth-most yards to opposing wide receivers on the season.
- Josh Jacobs is questionable this week with a shoulder injury as he was unable to practice Wednesday and Thursday and only got a limited practice in on Friday. Facing a Titans run defense that has fallen apart over the last few weeks, this should be a tremendous opportunity for Deandre Washington if Jacobs is unable to go. The only issue is that it is a 4:25 PM game, so we may not know if Jacobs will play before the game starts.
- Le’Veon Bell is questionable with an illness as he practiced on Wednesday but then was out on Thursday and Friday. Facing a Dolphins defense that has been one of the worst teams in football against the run, this should open up an opportunity for Bilal Powell if Bell is unable to go.
- Greg Olsen is out with a concussion. Ian Thomas is minimum priced and should be one of the top plays of this week. 3
- Damien Williams and Darrell Williams are both out this week leaving LeSean McCoy, Darwin Thompson and newly signed Spencer Ware as the only healthy running backs for the Chiefs. The problem is that they are facing a run defense in New England that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs. This is likely a situation to avoid due to the split backfield of the Chiefs, but you could take a chance on McCoy in a GPP since he has been their best receiving back on the team.
- Will Fuller is questionable with a hamstring injury. If he is not able to go, this could open up some opportunity for Kenny Stills as a value play this week. It will also help DeAndre Hopkins pick up a few extra targets.
- T.Y. Hilton is out with a calf injury. This should put Zach Pascal in a tremendous spot against the atrocious Buccaneers defense this week.
KEY CASH CORE
Lamar Jackson- $9,000
Lamar Jackson until priced properly should be in your cash game lineup every week. We’ve seen ownership fluctuate between 60-80% for most of the year and even in a tough matchup last week against the 49ers managed 22.3 points even with just 100 yards passing last week. He is in another tough matchup this week facing a good Buffalo secondary, and Marquise Brown is questionable which may lower his ownership, but actually should help Jackson as so much of his value is on the ground that in games where receivers aren’t open he is going to be more prone to tuck and run.
Ian Thomas- $4,000
Ian Thomas at $4,000 is the impulse buy that is too good to pass up. In his rookie season with no Greg Olsen, Thomas was not impressive which is not a surprise as most rookie tight ends tend to struggle as he had just 333 yards and two touchdowns. However, last week while playing only 43% of the snaps saw four targets in which he caught all four of those passes. This week should be something similar except he will play nearly the entire game. Expect 8-10 targets for Thomas this week against a Falcons team that are a middle of the road defense against the tight end.
Nick Chubb- $7,900
Nick Chubb at just $7,900 is a tremendous bargain this week against the Bengals. On the year, the Bengals have allowed the most rushing yards per game at 157.6 yards per game, and have allowed 4.8 yards-per-carry. Chubb has been a volume workhorse this season as he has 20 touches in 12 of the team’s 14 games this year and the only two games that he did not see 20 touches was last week in a game that they fell behind to Pittsburgh, and a game they lost 31-3 to San Francisco. At 4.9 yards-per-carry he has been one of the league’s best running backs and the only complaint about him is that he has only scored seven touchdowns on the year and just one touchdown in his last six games. The Bengals have allowed the third-most rushing touchdowns on the season with 13, which should greatly increase the chances that Chubb finds the end-zone this week.
Melvin Gordon III- $7,300
Melvin Gordon is in a tremendous opportunity this week at just $7,300. Gordon has 20 or more carries in three of the last four games and is averaging 4.7 yards-per-carry over the last four games. Gordon is running hard for a new contract whether it is in Los Angeles or elsewhere, and is in a very favorable matchup this week going against Jacksonville who has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points on the season to opposing running backs and has allowed the most fantasy points since Week 9 as they are allowing 6.2 yards per carry. This is a tremendous spot for Gordon to have a breakout game and he should go somewhat under-owned as he has not been popular in cash games all year.
KEY FADE
Michael Thomas- $8,600
Michael Thomas has been one of the best cash game plays all season with his overall consistency. However, this week for Thomas to hit value against the 49ers, he needs at least 80 yards and a touchdown. On the year, there have only been two wide receivers who have done this against the 49ers which were Andy Isabella (88-yard reception for a touchdown), and John Ross on a long catch as well. The 49ers have one of the top-two secondaries in the NFL this year and the one area that they have struggled against is speed receivers which while Thomas is a tremendous receiver does not possess the top-end speed that Richard Sherman and company have struggled with this season.
Devonta Freeman- $6,000
Look, the matchup against Carolina is a tremendous one, as they have allowed 22 rushing touchdowns (most in the league), 5.3 yards-per-carry (most in the league), and 28.0 FanDuel points per game to opposing running backs (most in the league). However, this is a situation where Devonta Freeman just is not the running back that you want to take in cash this week. Even at $6,000, Freeman has not scored a rushing touchdown since 2017 and is averaging just 3.4 yards-per-carry. This is a defense that shut down Brian Hill/Qadree Ollison holding the Falcons to just 59 yards on 22 total carries. With the Falcons having seemingly nothing to play for at this point in the year, they still need to evaluate their existing running backs in Hill who saw 26% of the snaps last week. Freeman is a better play on PPR sites due to his high reception totals that he has put up this season, but on FanDuel with the 0.5 PPR, he is a guy that has too low of a floor this week.
LINEUPS
ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 127.8)
- QB Lamar Jackson, BAL, $9,000
- RB Nick Chubb, CLE, $7,900
- RB Leonard Fournette, Jax, $7,500
- WR- D.J. Moore, CAR, $7,100
- WR Jarvis Landry, CLE, $7,200
- WR DJ Chark, Jax, $6,200
- TE Ian Thomas, CAR, $4,000
- Flex RB- Melvin Gordon, LAC, $7,300
- TD Atlanta Falcons, $3,500
ROSTER 2 ($60K) – Derrick Henry Lineup (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 126.2)
- QB Lamar Jackson, BAL, $9,000
- RB Derrick Henry, Ten, $9,100
- RB Leonard Fournette, Jax, $7,500
- WR- D.J. Moore, CAR, $7,100
- WR Odell Beckham Jr, CLE, $6,800
- WR Diontae Johnson, PIT $5,100
- TE Ian Thomas, CAR, $4,000
- Flex RB- Nick Chubb, NO, $7,900
- TD Atlanta Falcons, $3,500
ROSTER 3 ($60K) – CASH+ MIA/NYJ STack(DD PROJECTED POINTS = 118.5)
- QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, MIA, $7,400
- RB RB- Nick Chubb, NO, $7,900
- RB Leonard Fournette, Jax, $7,500
- WR- DeVante Parker, MIA, $7,200
- WR Robby Anderson, NYJ, $6,400
- WR Mike Evans, TB, $7,700
- TE Ian Thomas, CAR, $4,000
- Flex RB- Davante Adams, GB, $8,400
- TD Atlanta Falcons, $3,500
Any questions on your cash game lineup or feedback on the article? Send me a message on Twitter below.
Follow @ohiostate241
