SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE:
Each Sunday Morning, check back here to see if there are any updates to the primary cash game lineup.
There are two key pieces of news here this week.
First, Emmanuel Sanders is expected to play this week. That limits the usage for Deebo Samuel, Ross Dwelley or any other receivers in San Francisco. It also somewhat limits Tevin Coleman. Coleman is still a great play, but he will likely get 2-3 touches less than he otherwise would have.
Second, Jordan Howard is confirmed as out. Miles Sanders is risky, but I still like him more than anyone in that range of price.
Bonus: If you're into prop betting, Ezekiel Elliott is -300 to score a touchdown today. Essentially that means Vegas thinks that there is a 75% chance he scores a touchdown this week.
Final cash game roster. No change. If you have questions feel free to reach out to me on twitter @ohiostate241
- QB Lamar Jackson- BAL, $8,800
- RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL, $8,400
- RB Christian McCaffrey- CAR, 10,500
- WR- D.J. Moore, CAR, $6,000
- WR Mohamed Sanu, NE, $5,800
- WR DJ Chark, Jax, $6,000
- TE Eric Ebron, Ind, $5,200
- Flex RB- Miles Sanders, $5,600
- TD Carolina Panthers, $3,700
SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.
- Oakland (vs Cin) – 29.75 points
- New Orleans (vs TB)- 28 points
- San Francisco (vs Ari)- 27.5 points
- Dallas (vs DET) – 27 points
- Baltimore (vs Hou)- 27 points
Review of Last Week-
By request, we are going to do a small section of a review of last week. Last week, the primary lineup just missed out on cashing in 50/50’s. This was due to a couple of reasons, the first being that I didn’t play Lamar Jackson. The game went perfectly for a large majority of the game only for Jackson to rush for a 47-yard touchdown while the team was up 28-10. The other thing that hurt me, was Michael Thomas being tackled at the one-yard line and Christian McCaffrey falling about 2 inches short of the goal line at the end of the game. If any of those three things change, the lineup easily is above the 50/50 line. McCaffrey surprisingly was not above 50%, as the price likely scared a lot of people off of him.
The ultimate problem of last week was Christian Kirk being close to 45% owned. I get why, but the floor of Kirk was just too low and I chose D.J. Moore over him. Moore was fine, but we fell just short of being able to overcome Kirk’s elite performance.
STRATEGY THIS WEEK- Know the Difference in Sites
This article is a FanDuel specific article, but part of what being a great DFS player is recognizing the differences in each site. Far too often, we hear people say player x is a great play, but in reality, he is a great play on one specific site whether it is due to his pricing, his PPR status or his touchdown upside. On FanDuel, with it being a 0.5 PPR, and no bonuses at 100 yards or 300 yards passing, what we are looking for is the ability to score touchdowns. Red zone targets are a critical stat when playing on FanDuel compared to other sites as we need players who are getting opportunities near the end-zone. Targets and opportunities are often a bigger predictor of future success compared to just overall touchdowns.
Below is Devin Knotts' cash game strategy for Week 11 as well as his cash game lineup.
CASH GAME STRATEGY WEEK 11
Finding Value Amongst the Backups
This week is beginning to look like Week 17 with all of the critical injuries that have come up with players in fantastic matchups. Players such as Brian Hill, Miles Sanders, Tevin Coleman, Kalen Ballage, potentially Deebo Samuel, Russell Gage, and Hunter Renfrow are all going to be somewhat popular this week. So how do we approach this? The path that I typically take is a conservative approach. I want players who are somewhat safe with the amount of volume that they will see, or I want players who are near minimum priced that allow me to spend up at other positions to help offset a poor performance from these types of players.
INJURY UNLOCKS OPPORTUNITY?
- Matt Breida is doubtful this week with an ankle injury. This opens up plenty of opportunity for Tevin Coleman this week at just $6,700 against a Cardinals' weak run defense.
- George Kittle is doubtful, Emmanuel Sanders is questionable, and Dante Pettis is questionable. It would be somewhat of a surprise for Sanders to play after not practicing this week. If he is unable to go and we hear that for sure before lock, Deebo Samuel is a must-play this week. Without that knowledge, it is tough at $5,600 to lock in Deebo.
- Adam Thielen looks like he will miss again this week, Stefon Diggs will likely see a lot of Chris Harris, which could open up an opportunity for Bisi Johnson or Kyle Rudolph in a GPP format.
- The Eagles signed Jay Ajayi, likely indicating that Jordan Howard is not going to play with an injured shoulder. Miles Sanders should see a bulk of the work against a New England defense that has not looked nearly as good the past few weeks against the run.
- Devonta Freeman is out with a foot injury leaving Brian Hill as the primary ball carrier. Hill is facing a Carolina run defense that has been one of the worst in the NFL this season as they have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs and have allowed 14 rushing touchdowns on the year which is the most in the NFL. Hill is an excellent play this week.
- Marshon Lattimore is out for this week against the Buccaneers which is a significant injury for the Saints secondary. Jameis Winston, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin all see a significant upgrade this week.
- T.Y. Hilton remains out, Parris Campbell is also out for the Colts. This should open up plenty of opportunities for Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle once again.
KEY CASH CORE
Mohamed Sanu- $5,800
FanDuel’s pricing algorithm quite frankly got this one wrong. The algorithm is likely taking into account Sanu’s full-year production and not the production that we saw in his second game in New England. Sanu saw 14 targets in the loss to Baltimore last week, and by all accounts coming out of New England has looked outstanding over the bye week continuing to get acclimated to this offense. This is a scenario where his price should at the very least be in the mid-6k range. Take advantage as he should be in another spot where he sees at least 8-10 targets with upside for more as New England will likely struggle to run the ball this week.
At the start of the week, McCaffrey is a name that I thought would not be in my cash game article for the first time in quite a long time. However, after the value has opened up this week, I went back and took a closer look at Atlanta’s true stats against the running back position. By all accounts they have been better this season against the running back position allowing only 3.8 yards per carry to the position, however, they have shown signs of struggle as they allowed 177 yards to Minnesota running backs in Week 1 with two touchdowns, 145 yards to Seattle running backs with one touchdown, 169 yards to Arizona with 3 touchdowns, and 127 yards and a touchdown to Houston. The only team that Carolina is comparable to on that list is Minnesota. This should be another 100 yard game with a touchdown for McCaffrey.
D.J. Moore
Both D.J. Moore and John Brown this year seem to be underpriced every single week. Moore is the slightly preferred player in this scenario just based off of his continued upward trend as well as Atlanta’s struggles in the secondary this season. Over the last six games, the Falcons have allowed six receivers to go for over 80 yards, as well as having allowed eight touchdowns to receivers in that timeframe.
Elliott may not be in every lineup this week, but he is in an incredible spot and wanted to write up some blurbs about him. Going up against the Lions run defense who have allowed an average of 168 yards per game to opposing running backs and 1.6 touchdowns per game to the position. The Lions linebacker play has been atrocious for most of the season and is an area in which Dallas should be able to run the ball all game against this team. Elliott has not had a breakout game this year, and with his price 2k, less than McCaffrey makes for a fantastic play this week.
KEY FADE
Dalvin Cook
Dalvin Cook is a player this week who is not in any of my cash game or small GPP builds. The problem with Cook is not the player, but instead the matchup and price. He is priced up with some of the highest running backs on the board this week, but is facing a Denver defense that has allowed only one 100 yard rusher on the season and has held Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry, and Melvin Gordon to under 3.3 yards per carry and are only allowing 3.8 yards per carry on the season. There are better options this week at the position.
LINEUPS
ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 131.1)
- QB Lamar Jackson- BAL, $8,800
- RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL, $8,400
- RB Christian McCaffrey- CAR, 10,500
- WR- D.J. Moore, CAR, $6,000
- WR Mohamed Sanu, NE, $5,800
- WR DJ Chark, Jax, $6,000
- TE Eric Ebron, Ind, $5,200
- Flex RB- Miles Sanders, $5,600
- TD Carolina Panthers, $3,700
ROSTER 2 ($60K) – Fade Lamar Jackson Lineup (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 128.8)
- QB Jameis Winston- TB, $7,600
- RB Tevin Coleman- ATL, $6,700
- RB Christian McCaffrey- CAR, 10,500
- WR- D.J. Moore, CAR, $6,000
- WR Mohamed Sanu, NE, $5,800
- WR John Brown, Buf, $5,900
- TE Eric Ebron, Ind, $5,200
- Flex RB- Ezekiel Elliott, Dal, $8,400
- TD Carolina Panthers, $3,700
ROSTER 3 ($60K) – CASH+ TB NO STACK(DD PROJECTED POINTS = 127.7)
- QB Jameis Winston- TB, $7,600
- RB Tevin Coleman- ATL, $6,700
- RB Miles Sanders, PHI, $5,600
- WR- Michael Thomas, NO, $9,9000
- WR Mohamed Sanu, NE, $5,800
- WR Chris Godwin, TB, $8,000
- TE Greg Olsen, CAR, $5,100
- Flex RB- Ezekiel Elliott, Dal, $8,400
- TD Carolina Panthers, $3,700
Any questions on your cash game lineup or feedback on the article? Send me a message on Twitter below.
Follow @ohiostate241