Photo: USA Today Sports
Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
UPDATED SATURDAY 11/24 @ 7 PM (EST)
| Team | Opponent | Odds | Team Total | Game Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans | Atlanta | -12.5 | 36.75 | 61 | +++ | +++ | |
| Indianapolis | Miami | -8 | 29.75 | 51.5 | +++ | +++ | |
| LA Chargers | Arizona | -13.5 | 28.75 | 44 | +++ | +++ | +++ |
| Tampa Bay | San Francisco | -2.5 | 28.25 | 54 | +++ | +++ | |
| New England | NY Jets | -10 | 28.25 | 46.5 | ++ | +++ | + |
| Baltimore | Oakland | -11 | 26.75 | 42.5 | ++ | +++ | +++ |
| Philadelphia | NY Giants | -5 | 26.5 | 48 | ++ | ++ | |
| San Francisco | Tampa Bay | 2.5 | 25.75 | 54 | + | + | |
| Minnesota | Green Bay | -3 | 25.25 | 47.5 | + | + | |
| Pittsburgh | Denver | -3 | 25 | 47 | + | + | |
| Carolina | Seattle | -3 | 24.5 | 46 | + | + | |
| Atlanta | New Orleans | 12.5 | 24.25 | 61 | + | + | |
| Cincinnati | Cleveland | -1.5 | 24 | 46.5 | + | + | |
| Dallas | Washington | -7 | 23.5 | 40 | ++ | ||
| Houston | Tennessee | -4.5 | 23 | 41.5 | + | ||
| Chicago | Detroit | -3 | 22.75 | 42.5 | + | ||
| Cleveland | Cincinnati | 1.5 | 22.5 | 46.5 | |||
| Green Bay | Minnesota | 3 | 22.25 | 47.5 | |||
| Denver | Pittsburgh | 3 | 22 | 47 | |||
| Miami | Indianapolis | 8 | 21.75 | 51.5 | |||
| Seattle | Carolina | 3 | 21.5 | 46 | |||
| NY Giants | Philadelphia | 5 | 21.5 | 48 | |||
| Jacksonville | Buffalo | -3 | 20 | 37 | ++ | ||
| Detroit | Chicago | 3 | 19.75 | 42.5 | |||
| Tennessee | Houston | 4.5 | 18.5 | 41.5 | |||
| NY Jets | New England | 10 | 18.25 | 46.5 | |||
| Buffalo | Jacksonville | 3 | 17 | 37 | |||
| Washington | Dallas | 7 | 16.5 | 40 | |||
| Oakland | Baltimore | 11 | 15.75 | 42.5 | |||
| Arizona | LA Chargers | 13.5 | 15.25 | 44 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Drew Brees (Saints), Andrew Luck (Colts), Philip Rivers (Chargers), Jameis Winston (Buccaneers), Tom Brady (Patriots)
- Running Back: Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara (Saints), Marlon Mack (Colts), Austin Ekeler (Chargers), Peyton Barber (Buccaneers), Sony Michel/James White (Patriots), Gus Edwards (Ravens)
- Receivers: Michael Thomas/TreQuan Smith/Ben Watson (Saints), T.Y. Hilton/Ryan Grant/Eric Ebron/Jack Doyle (Colts), Keenan Allen/Tyrell Williams/Mike Williams (Chargers), Mike Evans/DeSean Jackson/O.J. Howard (Buccaneers), Julian Edelman/Josh Gordon/Rob Gronkowski (Patriots)
- Defense: Chargers, Ravens
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Lamar Jackson (Ravens), Carson Wentz (Eagles)
- Running Back: Josh Adams/Corey Clement (Eagles)
- Receivers: Michael Crabtree/John Brown/Willie Snead/Mark Andrews (Ravens), Alshon Jeffery/Nelson Agholor/Golden Tate/Zach Ertz (Eagles)
- Defense: Cowboys, Jaguars
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Nick Mullens (49ers), Kirk Cousins (Vikings), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Cam Newton (Panthers), Matt Ryan (Falcons), Andy Dalton (Bengals)
- Running Back: Matt Breida (49ers), Dalvin Cook (Vikings), James Conner (Steelers), Christian McCaffrey (Panthers), Tevin Coleman (Falcons), Joe Mixon (Bengals)
- Receivers: Marquise Goodwin/Pierre Garcon/George Kittle (49ers), Adam Thielen/Stefon Diggs/Kyle Rudolph (Vikings), Antonio Brown/JuJu Smith-Schuster/Vance McDonald (Steelers), Devin Funchess/D.J. Moore/Greg Olsen (Panthers), Julio Jones/Calvin Ridley/Mohamed Sanu/Austin Hooper (Falcons), Tyler Boyd/John Ross/C.J. Uzomah (Bengals)
- Defense: Patriots, Texans, Bears
Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports
Tags
Daily FF
DraftKings
Josh Adams
Nelson Agholor
Keenan Allen
Mark Andrews
Peyton Barber
Tyler Boyd
Tom Brady
Matt Breida
Antonio Brown
John Brown
Corey Clement
Tevin Coleman
James Conner
Dalvin Cook
Kirk Cousins
Andy Dalton
Stefon Diggs
Jack Doyle
Eric Ebron
Gus Edwards
Austin Ekeler
Zach Ertz
Mike Evans
Marquise Goodwin
Josh Gordon
Rob Gronkowski
T.Y. Hilton
Austin Hooper
O.J. Howard
Mark Ingram II
DeSean Jackson
Lamar Jackson
Julio Jones
Alvin Kamara
George Kittle
Marlon Mack
Christian McCaffrey
Sony Michel
Joe Mixon
DJ Moore
Nick Mullens
Cam Newton
Calvin Ridley
Ben Roethlisberger
John Ross
Kyle Rudolph
Matt Ryan
Mohamed Sanu
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Tre'Quan Smith
Willie Snead IV
Adam Thielen
Michael Thomas
C.J. Uzomah
Carson Wentz
James White
Mike Williams
Tyrell Williams
Jameis Winston
