This article will take a weekly look at players who are either undervalued or overvalued in a given week. The outlier value players offer is calculated by a comparison between the Top 200 forward, a look at the top 200 players with the whole season in mind, and the initial weekly Footballguys rankings. Both sources are from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, the matchup of the week, or short-term situation. Now, let's look at this week's outlier players.
Quarterback
- Top 200 ranking: 13
- Weekly ranking: 6
- Difference: +7
Cousins threw for a ton of yards last week against the Packers. This week, the passer leads his team against the lowly Bills. Buffalo has been abysmal on offense, creating even more opportunities for the opposing offenses. Philip Rivers was able to tear through the lowly defense a week ago and Cousins should do the same this week.
- Top 200 ranking: 34
- Weekly ranking: 9
- Difference: +25
Fitzpatrick has enjoyed a magical start to the season with victories over the Saints and the Eagles. This week, he leads the Tampa Bay offense against the Steelers. This is a Pittsburgh defense that yielded huge numbers to the Chiefs passing game a week ago. Jameis Winston will be back from suspension soon so Fitzpatrick only has a couple of opportunities to solidify his spot in the starting lineup.
- Top 200 ranking: 6
- Weekly ranking: 11
- Difference: -5
Wilson has struggled to get untracked this season. The Seahawks lack a running game and Seattle has faced two quality defenses in Denver and Chicago. Now on a short week, the 0-2 Seahawks travel home to host the Cowboys. The Dallas defense has performed well and should have a plan to contain the slippery Wilson. Until the running game improves, we hesitate to recommend Wilson when he is facing a decent defense. There is little balance to the offense and opposing defenses can just rush the passer without concern.
- Top 200 ranking: 12
- Weekly ranking: 21
- Difference: -8
Rivers has thrown for almost 500 yards in each of the Chargers’ first two contests. The game against the Rams this week should bring the hot streak to a halt. While we are optimistic for a strong season, Rivers and the Chargers offense will have their collective hands full with the Wade Phillips defense. Sit on the bench unless no other viable options.
Running Back
- Top 200 ranking: 35
- Weekly ranking: 17
- Difference: +18
Bernard steps into the lead-back role vacated by Joe Mixon after his knee injury last week. While the matchup is a difficult one against the Panthers, there should be enough passing-game work to warrant his RB2 status.
James Connor
- Top 200 ranking: 18
- Weekly ranking: 6
- Difference: +12
Fantasy players never know when LeVeon Bell will return to the team, so Conner is a value play until then. Conner and the Steelers travel to Tampa Bay to face a Buccaneers defense that allowed Alvin Kamara a monster Week 1 game. He is an RB1 until Bell comes back.
- Top 200 ranking: 15
- Weekly ranking: 24
- Difference: -9
Lewis has taken the reins of the Titans backfield and is a threat as a runner and receiver. The matchup in Jacksonville against the stiff Jaguars defense should be enough to downgrade him for this week only. With the uncertainty at quarterback, the already-stout defense will be allowed to key on Lewis and the running game. This is not a good situation for fantasy success.
- Top 200 ranking: 9
- Weekly ranking: 13
- Difference: -4
Hunt is not getting the passing-game work after the quarterback switch to Patrick Mahomes II II. It will take a few weeks for the 2017 rushing leader to get incorporated into the new-and-improved Chiefs passing game. The matchup against the 49ers will be a tough test for the Kansas City running game. This is an underrated defense, able to slow the prolific offense down for the first time this season.
Wide Receiver
- Top 200 ranking: 28
- Weekly ranking: 19
- Difference: +9
We recommended Agholor in this column last week and he came through for fantasy players. The other recommendation, Stefon Diggs, performed well, too. Agholor gets Carson Wentz back under center and faces the weak Indianapolis Colts secondary. Still available on some waiver wires, Agholor makes a great spot starter while Alshon Jeffery AND Mike Wallace are sidelined. He is the lone healthy starting receiver.
- Top 200 ranking: 33
- Weekly ranking: 21
- Difference: +12
Golladay is emerging as the top receiver for the Lions. In what appears to be a shootout with the Patriots, Golladay will have ample scoring and garbage-time opportunities. New England will be fired up after the disappointing loss to Jacksonville last week.
- Top 200 ranking: 26
- Weekly ranking: 40
- Difference: -14
Crabtree has been a solid possession receiver for the Ravens this season. The game against the rugged secondary of the Denver Broncos makes it difficult to recommend the veteran wide receiver. This has the makings of a low-scoring slugfest.
- Top 200 ranking: 5
- Weekly ranking: 11
- Difference: -6
Still a must-start player, expectations should be tempered for the star receiver as the Chargers travel to the Rams, even if it is just across town. This game will come down to the strength of the Chargers offense against the strength of the Rams defense. Allen has a lower ceiling than normal but is difficult to sit on fantasy benches.
Tight End
- Top 200 ranking: 10
- Weekly ranking: 6
- Difference: +4
Kittle has become a focal point in the 49ers offense this season, especially with Marquise Goodwin sidelined with the leg injury. He gets a Chiefs defense this week that made Jesse James look like Tony Gonzalez a week ago. James was always open in the middle of the field. We expect San Francisco to attack Kansas City in much the same way.
- Top 200 ranking: 33
- Weekly ranking: 24
- Difference: +9
Thomas is slowly working his way onto the field after the Panthers lost Greg Olsen for at least a few weeks. Olsen re-fractured his foot in Week 1 and the rookie will have a chance for a solid game against the Bengals this week. Cincinnati gave up production to the Baltimore rookie tight end, Mark Andrews, last week and there is hope for a repeat. Carolina drafted Thomas to replace Olsen, just nobody thought it would come this soon.
- Top 200 ranking: 6
- Weekly ranking: 9
- Difference: -3
Engram has been underutilized in the Giants offense so far this season. Eli Manning has little time in the pocket and the offensive line is pitiful. Engram still should be inserted into lineups but with lowered expectations against a winless Texans team seeking its first win.
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