#Trendspotting: Week 13 - Cooking Up Fantasy Goodness

Photo: USA Today Sports

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Coming off Thanksgiving, it's appropriate to thank my readers and all our Footballguys subscribers. I can't believe it's already Week 13. Thanks so much for enjoying the ride of another great NFL and fantasy football season with us!

Because of this special occasion, I'm introducing a new section to the column. It's called "How Will They Score" and is at the bottom of the article. Note that the goal of this column is to provide data to help you make fantasy decisions but also actionable commentary from the stats provided.

Graphics Tutorial and Reader's Guide

I've gotten feedback that my graphics aren't as self-explanatory and intuitive as I think they are, so I provided a guide at the beginning of a past version of this article.

• Green text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players.
• Red text is a bad matchup.
• All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
• All stats reference the full 2017 season unless otherwise specified.

This week, we'll discuss the following topics:

• Follow the Targets
• Funnel Watch
• The Weakest Links
• Hi, I'm New Here
• New England Patriots (at Buffalo Bills)
• Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Cleveland Browns)
• Los Angeles Rams (at Arizona Cardinals)
• Seattle Seahawks (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)
• Minnesota Vikings (at Atlanta Falcons)
• How Will They Score?

Follow the Targets

The table below looks at bad pass defenses and shows how those defenses allow targets, yards, and touchdowns. In previous weeks, we've looked at the eight worst pass defenses by yards per game over the course of the season. But with trends and teams changing, we narrowed that look to the most passing yards per game allowed from Week 7 forward. The numbers on how they've allowed those targets, yards, and touchdowns, however, are a season-long look.

Here are some quick notes on how to decipher the chart:

• Tampa Bay allows 64.3% of their targets to wide receivers, and they're last in the NFL in yards per game yielded to wide receivers
• They've surrendered 14 touchdowns to wideouts.
• The New York Giants have yielded nine (9) touchdowns to tight ends.
• Houston allows 24.6% of its total targets and the seventh-most (i.e. 26th-ranked) yards per game to tight ends.
• However, they only allow 17.4% of their targets and the fourth-fewest yards per game to running backs.

Action(able) Items

• I was ready to call Tampa Bay at Green Bay a sneaky shootout, but Tampa Bay lost two very good offensive linemen to I.R. this week.
• We've picked on Tampa Bay vs. wide receivers in this column multiple times this season. In fact, last week, our cover boy made us proud. Later, we'll look at them again and how it relates to Green Bay's receivers.
• The Giants held Vernon Davis to nothing on Thanksgiving, but that is likely an anomaly. Considering Oakland's lack of receiver depth and his success already this year, Jared Cook is in a great spot to outproduce expectations.

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Funnel Watch

A "funnel" defense is one with a stout run defense but a suspect (or worse) pass defense. These units "funnel" production to the exterior and deep parts of the field (places where passing games focus) and away from the short middle (where the running game occurs).

I've mentioned before that some "funnel" defenses are such because they are very good vs. the run and/or bad vs. the pass. Others make this list because game situations dictate more passing than rushing. This increases the passing stats against and decreases the rushing stats against. Because of this, it can be good to look at situation-neutral stats.

Defenses facing the pass-heaviest playcalling while in neutral game scripts during the last month:

TEN 69.2%
GB 64.6%
CAR 63.6%
OAK 62.6%
ARZ 60.8%
NE 60.7%

Most run-heavy:

DEN 52.3%
DET 50.6%
SF 50.3%
CLE 49.3%
PHI 48.5%
CHI 48.1%

— Pat Thorman (@Pat_Thorman) November 29, 2017

Teams like Green Bay and Oakland are "funnels" because they're very bad against the pass. A team like Philadelphia, though, has gained its status in the table above due to game script.

"Runnel" Defense

The funnel effect can also happen in reverse, where a team is very good against the pass but poor against the run (hence, "runnel" defense). Side note: I didn't create this term; I saw it on Twitter last season, but I can't recall who posted it. If you know, drop me a line so I can give proper credit.

Action(able) Items

• If you play Monday Night Football DFS slates or traditional leagues, LeVeon Bell is worth paying up for. Not only is Cincinnati worse against the run than the pass, but Pittsburgh plays a more run-centric style on the road.
• Adrian Peterson is a dart-throw GPP play in DFS. The Rams could be in a let-down spot after a big win over New Orleans. Peterson has been effective in neutral and positive scripts.

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The Weakest Links

Last Week, we discussed Kansas City vs. running quarterbacks. After allowing 27 rushing yards to Tyrod Taylor, they have now allowed 20+ rushing yards to a quarterback six times. We also discussed Tampa Bay vs. wide receivers. Let's get another look at that table: