True Fantasy Points: 2017 Tight End Projections

Photo: USA Today Sports

This is the fourth and final installment in my True Fantasy Points (TFP) series for 2017. If you missed the previous installments or want more details of my statistical methodology, here are the relevant links:

1. Quarterback TFP
2. Running back TFP
3. Wide receiver TFP

The stat rates we'll be using for tight ends are the same ones we used for wide receivers: receptions per route run (RPRR), yards per route run (YPRR), and touchdowns per route run (TDPRR). However, it's important to note that these stats regress to the mean at different rates for tight ends than for wide receivers. Namely, RPRR stabilizes more slowly (262 routes vs. 188), whereas both YPRR (318 routes vs. 351) and TDPRR (740 routes vs. 882) actually stabilize more quickly.

True Stats Through 2016

As always, in the table below you'll find actual and "true" per-route stats through last season for the 45 tight ends projected to run at least 100 routes for the same team this season (sorted by True YPRR, with the Top 3 of each "true" stat category in bold and the Bottom 3 in italics):

Once again, my "true" stats have done a good job identifying the truly best of the best at a position. Here, only four tight ends have a True YPRR of 2.00 or higher: Rob Gronkowski, Jordan Reed, Travis Kelce, and ... Erik Swoope? A former basketball player at the University of Miami (a la Jimmy Graham), Swoope saw the first meaningful action of his three-year Colts career in 2016; and even then he ran only 79 routes. But what he did in those 79 routes -- a 22/15/179/1 stat line -- was as efficient as any tight end in the league. In fact, his 3.76 YPRR was a full yard better than second place Seth Devalve.

Now, of course, you might be thinking "this is sample size theater." But you'd be wrong because mathematically adjusting for sample size -- in this case routes run -- is exactly what my "true" stat system does. Besides that, there's an additional reason why I think Swoope's yardage-gaining prowess isn't likely a small sample mirage: His "true" average depth of target (aDOT) of 10.2 also ranked third last season. In other words, the routes he runs in Indianapolis are deeper than those of most tight ends, and so getting open means extra yardage is baked into the cake.

One final thing worth noting about Swoope is that his upside was a major reason why Indianapolis traded away Dwayne Allen.

True Projections for 2017

Below are my TFP projections alongside David Dodds' projections as of August 21st. The table is sorted by the "DIFF" column, which represents the difference between the two based on Footballguys' standard scoring system:

The TFP margins are thinner at tight end than at other positions, so I've only got one underrated player and one overrated player to discuss.

Underrated: Kyle Rudolph

It turns out that, if Rudolph amasses the 75 receptions that Dodds projects, then his 13.53% True RPRR suggests he'll end up leading all tight ends in 2017 with 554 routes run. Because TFP goes where the math takes it, that means 554 routes times a 1.43% True TDPRR equals 8 touchdowns, not 6. That's basically the entire discrepancy between Dodds and TFP right there.

Overrated: Jack Doyle

Although Doyle's 16.59% True RPRR ranked 2nd in the earlier table, his 1.55 True YPRR ranked 26th. Dodds' projection, meanwhile, implies a 1.74 YPRR in 2017. A little bit goes a long way for fantasy tight ends, so 0.19 fewer yards per route spread across 350 projected routes translates to 69 fewer receiving yards (#Nice). Also take away 1 touchdown due to a 0.31% difference between his "true" and projected TDPRR, and you end up Doyle being the most likely tight end to fall short of Dodds' point projection.

(I'd be remiss if I didn't take the opportunity to mention this as another reason to keep your eye on Erik Swoope.)

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