The Rundown: FantasyScore Week 8

Photo: USA Today Sports

So far this season, I've been introducing you to, familiarizing you with, and showing you how to beat FantasyScore's Draft-N-Go (DNG) games. For your convenience, here are links to each of the strategy-based articles:

• Which games should you target?
• Does the zero-running back strategy work in 5-person games?
• Does the zero-running back strategy work in 8-person games?
• Does the defense-last strategy work?
• Does the upside strategy work?

the bell curve and value probabilities

As has been outlined in various other columns on Footballguys, FantasyScore's salary cap game is similar to DraftKings' game with respect to its scoring system, player salaries, and lineup requirements. Therefore, the value thresholds you need to hit on FantasyScore are also similar:

• It takes around 150 points to win a head-to-head (H2H) or 50/50 game, so a $50,000 salary cap means your lineup needs to achieve 3x value (i.e., [150 * 1000] / 50000].
• It takes around 210 points to win a GPP, so your lineup needs to achieve approximately 4x value (i.e., [200 * 1000] / 50000).

quarterbacks

As I mentioned earlier, knowing that Newton has a 48.8% chance of achieving cash game value is one thing. What we really want to know is how 48.8% ranks among quarterbacks. That way, we can determine whether or not we actually want to use Newton as a source of value in our cash game lineups. Along these lines, below are the quarterbacks with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs. (Quick note: As with my above-linked column on drafting for upside in DNGs, the GPP probabilities below are based on the highest Footballguys projection rather than the average Footballguys projection.)

Mettenberger may rank as the quarterback most likely to achieve value for cash games, but my money's on Ryan Fitzpatrick. That's because, if we want low-variance options in cash games, I'll take the established starter playing against Oakland over the failed starter, injury replacement against anyone. For GPPs, Hoyer's the best value. Not only does he have the highest probability of achieving value; Foles helms one of the most run-oriented offenses in the NFL and is likely to be salting away a lead for much of the game against San Francisco.

On the flip side, Peyton Manning seems wholly unworthy of his price this week, while Rodgers and Luck are simply too expensive to roster unless you go for maximum value at every other position.

running backs

Below are the running backs most (and least) likely to achieve value:

As an active member of Tennessee's short passing game and going against Houston's soft defense, McCluster is the clear value play in both cash games and GPPs. In terms of running backs to avoid, Lacy's matchup and recent struggles make him an unattractive play even with Starks questionable; Peterson is simply too expensive even though his matchup is favorable.

wide receivers

Below are the wide receivers most (and least) likely to achieve value:

Combined with the quarterback probabilities I listed earlier, the top of this table make it clear that Fitzpatrick-Kerley and Hoyer-Washington are the two most value-oriented stacks of Week 8. Likewise, Manning-Sanders, Luck-Hilton, and Rodgers-Jones are the budget-busting stacks to avoid this week, especially in GPPs. Among wide receivers not likely to be stacked with their quarterbacks, Tyler Lockett is the player I'm flexing in my GPP lineups.

tight ends

Below are the tight ends most (and least) likely to achieve value:

This one's easy, ownership rates be damned: Green should be in most of, if not all of, your lineups this week. He's been a consistent double-digit scorer as the second tight end on his own team, and now he's back to starting in Antonio Gates' absence. Also, his matchup is favorable. Also, he's criminally underpriced when you consider that Larry Donnell -- Larry Donnell! -- is $1,100 more expensive than him. Or how about this for a deal? If it were possible, you could get two Ladarius Greens against Baltimore for one Gary Barnidge against Arizona.

defenses

Finally, here are the defenses most (and least) likely to achieve value:

Another no-brainer despite ownership rates. We're at the point this season that "use defenses going against the 49ers" is gospel. And when we can get one relatively cheaply, all the better. That said, New Orleans is a viable option in GPPs if you're looking for a bargain basement, contrarian defense.

WEEK 8 DRAFT LISTS

And finally, if you're playing FantasyScore's DNGs, I haven't forgotten about you. Below are the draft lists to use in Week 8.