The Rundown: FantasyScore Week 18

Photo: USA Today Sports

DFS during the playoffs is especially tricky. The slate of games is half the size (or smaller) of a week in the regular season, and the people playing it are most likely either losing players chasing losses or winning players exploiting them. From a game theory perspective, thia means that the corect strategy is to adopt lower variance in both cash games and tournaments. If the majority of my competitors are going to go crazy, then it behooves me to go sane. This appeal to sanity permeates through all of my stats-based advice below.

QUARTERBACKS

Below are the quarterbacks with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

If you're going for value at quarterback, the clear choice this week is Alex Smith in cash games and A.J. McCarron in tournaments. As I've written ad nauseum so far this season, Smith is the definition of a cash game quarterback. And the fact that he's ever-so-slightly better than even money to achieve value in such games this week is icing on the cake. Meanwhile, McCarron, as his situation stands heading into the Wild Card round is the anti-Alex: High variance, but also high value. In contrast to Wilson, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, and Cousins, being value-oriented at quarterback opens up a ton of possibilities at other positions.

running backs

Below are the running backs with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

As much as the combination of our own projections and my value calculations suggest that McKinnon, Todman, and Touissant are kings among running back values, can you really put your faith in players that have averaged 10 snaps per game at most this season? Either way, the moral of the story is that I don't even trust my own numbers here.

Aside from those three, the facts are these. Only Washington (22nd), Green Bay (19th), and Minnesota (18th) were in the bottom half of rush defense DVOA this season. Of these three, Minnesota (20th) is the only one to have also ranked in the bottom half of pass defense DVOA against opposing running backs. And then there's the fact that Seattle (i.e., Minnesota's opponent) is the largest favorite of the Wild Card round. In my mind, that trifecta of indicators is more than enough to convince me to go with either Fred Jackson or Christine Michael as the best value plays this weekend. Probably the best way to think about it is that you're better off with Jackson in full PPR contests like FFPC, while you're better off with Michael in contests with standard scoring. 

wide receivers

Below are the wide receivers with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

According to Pro Football Focus, there are three wide receivers to target this week, and two of them are Steelers. For a high-priced player, Antonio Brown is surprisingly high on the value list, so he's a must-play. The other Steeler, Martavis Bryant, isn't far below Brown and also happens to have a more favorable individual matchup. The final option is James Jones, who ranks 6th in both cash game value and tournament value, and will be running most of his routes this weekend against Washington cornerback Quinton Dunbar. (Who?)

tight ends

Below are the tight ends with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

Tight end values are a tough not to crack this week. Of the 12 playoff teams, the worst at covering tight ends per pass defense DVOA are Washington (21st), Minnesota (25th), and Seattle (26th), which should mean that Rudolph and Rodgers are good plays. However, both will be playing in temperatures that have produced subpar passing offense historically, so each is not as good of a candidate as he otherwise might be. With that duo out of the picture, it leaves the "elite" trio of Reed, Kelce, and Miller, but even their matchups are bad: They're going against the 4th, 9th and 12th best pass defenses against tight ends, respecitvely. So who's my pick for tight end value? Kelce, if for no other reason than that my fantasy playoff strategy article suggests the Chiefs are likely to destroy the Texans.

defenses

Below are the defenses with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

What with the perpetual, seemingly random defensive value on FantasyScore week after week after week after week (it's almost as if that's built into the system!), you could roll an 8-sided die and have just as much of a chance of winning with said defense as I would rostering Green Bay. Truth be told, given the forecast conditions in Minneapolis, I'd lean towards the following: Seahawks defense in cash games; Vikings defense in tournaments.

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