As I'll be going into copious amounts of detail over the next three weeks regarding how well my value probabilities have performed, let's get straight to this week's numbers. And since it's the final week of the regular season, I'll give the quarterback probabilities to readers for free.
quarterbacks
Below are the quarterbacks with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:
| MOST LIKELY TO ACHIEVE VALUE | |||||||||
| NAME | TM | SALARY | AVG | P(CASH) | NAME | TM | SALARY | MAX | P(GPP) |
| Sam Bradford | PHI | 4800 | 18.8 | 76.6% | Sam Bradford | PHI | 4800 | 19.3 | 47.6% |
| A.J. McCarron | CIN | 4800 | 18.5 | 74.8% | A.J. McCarron | CIN | 4800 | 18.6 | 45.4% |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | 5900 | 21.1 | 71.0% | Ryan Mallett | BAL | 4900 | 18.8 | 38.0% |
| LEAST LIKELY TO ACHIEVE VALUE | |||||||||
| NAME | TM | SALARY | AVG | P(CASH) | NAME | TM | SALARY | MAX | P(GPP) |
| Russell Wilson | SEA | 8900 | 22.6 | 24.8% | Russell Wilson | SEA | 8900 | 24.0 | 1.6% |
| Carson Palmer | ARI | 8500 | 21.4 | 24.8% | Carson Palmer | ARI | 8500 | 21.6 | 1.9% |
| Blake Bortles | JAC | 8100 | 21.2 | 30.4% | Blake Bortles | JAC | 8100 | 21.4 | 3.3% |
Four years ago, I wrote an article about how various types of playoff scenarios in Week 17 affect quarterback scoring. The simple take-home message of that piece was that you want to target quarterbacks on teams that are vying for a playoff spot or have already been eliminated, while avoiding those on teams that have already clinched a playoff spot. In short, vying for a specific seed (e.g., a first-round bye) appears to be less of a motivator than people think. Applying that idea to this week's slate, the quarterbacks you want to avoid are as follows: Cam Newton, Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Carson Palmer, Aaron Rodgers, Teddy Bridgewater, Alex Smith, and Kirk Cousins. Two other quarterbacks, Brock Osweiler and A.J. McCarron, are also on teams that have already clinched a playoff spot, but their lack of experience as starters suggests Denver and Cincinnati won't pull them out of their respective games early (i.e., they need all the reps they can get).
Of the quarterbacks in the table, my money's on Matt Ryan in cash games and Sam Bradford in tournaments. Ryan is going against the much-maligned Saints defense, which has given up at least 17.7 points (i.e., what Ryan needs to achieve value) to 12 of 15 opposing quarterbacks this season. Bradford, meanwhile, has a tougher opponent in the Giants, but New York's allowed 9 of 15 opposing quarterbacks to score at least 19.2 points.
running backs
Below are the running backs with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:
| MOST LIKELY TO ACHIEVE VALUE | |||||||||
| NAME | TM | SALARY | AVG | P(CASH) | NAME | TM | SALARY | MAX | P(GPP) |
| Tre Mason | STL | 2000 | 9.4 | 74.3% | Tre Mason | STL | 2000 | 13.5 | 59.2% |
| Jarryd Hayne | SFO | 2000 | 9.0 | 72.6% | Jarryd Hayne | SFO | 2000 | 10.9 | 57.1% |
| Bishop Sankey | TEN | 2000 | 8.4 | 69.1% | Bishop Sankey | TEN | 2000 | 9.9 | 53.1% |
| Kyle Juszczyk | BAL | 2000 | 7.9 | 65.7% | Kyle Juszczyk | BAL | 2000 | 9.2 | 49.3% |
| Mike Tolbert | CAR | 2000 | 6.9 | 58.4% | Rashad Jennings | NYG | 3500 | 12.5 | 40.4% |
| LEAST LIKELY TO ACHIEVE VALUE | |||||||||
| NAME | TM | SALARY | AVG | P(CASH) | NAME | TM | SALARY | MAX | P(GPP) |
| Ryan Mathews | PHI | 5900 | 8.4 | 13.7% | Bilal Powell | NYJ | 4900 | 15.5 | 2.5% |
| Doug Martin | TAM | 8000 | 12.7 | 17.3% | Ryan Mathews | PHI | 5900 | 9.6 | 6.5% |
| Charcandrick West | KAN | 5900 | 10.2 | 20.8% | Doug Martin | TAM | 8000 | 12.9 | 8.6% |
| Adrian Peterson | MIN | 8100 | 14.5 | 22.3% | Charcandrick West | KAN | 5900 | 11.6 | 10.9% |
| Giovani Bernard | CIN | 5800 | 10.6 | 23.4% | Adrian Peterson | MIN | 8100 | 16.6 | 11.9% |
There's not a lot to choose from in the top half of the table because you need a divining rod to figure out how many touches committee members like Mason, Hayne, Sankey, Juszczyk, and Tolbert are going to get. That leaves Jennings, who has scored double-digit points in each game since the Giants began giving him the lion's share of touches, and who is going against an Eagles defense that's allowed a running back to score at least 14.0 points in every game dating back to Week 7.
wide receivers
Below are the wide receivers with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:
| MOST LIKELY TO ACHIEVE VALUE | |||||||||
| NAME | TM | SALARY | AVG | P(CASH) | NAME | TM | SALARY | MAX | P(GPP) |
| Keshawn Martin | NWE | 2300 | 14.0 | 86.6% | Keshawn Martin | NWE | 2300 | 16.8 | 74.5% |
| Roddy White | ATL | 2100 | 10.4 | 78.4% | Roddy White | ATL | 2100 | 13.1 | 63.3% |
| Jeremy Butler | BAL | 2000 | 9.5 | 76.1% | Jeremy Butler | BAL | 2000 | 10.7 | 60.4% |
| Kenny Britt | STL | 2000 | 9.4 | 75.8% | Kenny Britt | STL | 2000 | 10.0 | 59.9% |
| Terrance Williams | DAL | 2500 | 11.5 | 74.7% | Terrance Williams | DAL | 2500 | 11.9 | 58.6% |
| Brandon Coleman | NOR | 2000 | 8.6 | 71.5% | Brandon Coleman | NOR | 2000 | 10.7 | 54.7% |
| Dontrelle Inman | SDG | 2500 | 10.7 | 71.0% | Dontrelle Inman | SDG | 2500 | 12.2 | 54.2% |
| Marc Mariani | CHI | 2000 | 8.5 | 70.4% | Marc Mariani | CHI | 2000 | 11.8 | 53.5% |
| Marvin Jones | CIN | 2900 | 12.0 | 69.3% | Marvin Jones | CIN | 2900 | 13.1 | 52.3% |
| Jerricho Cotchery | CAR | 2000 | 8.3 | 69.1% | Jerricho Cotchery | CAR | 2000 | 9.6 | 52.0% |
| LEAST LIKELY TO ACHIEVE VALUE | |||||||||
| NAME | TM | SALARY | AVG | P(CASH) | NAME | TM | SALARY | MAX | P(GPP) |
| DeSean Jackson | WAS | 6300 | 8.2 | 9.5% | Ted Ginn Jr | CAR | 5700 | 11.8 | 0.3% |
| Steve Johnson | SDG | 4600 | 7.3 | 15.9% | Danny Amendola | NWE | 6600 | 9.9 | 1.0% |
| Larry Fitzgerald | ARI | 7500 | 13.8 | 22.1% | DeSean Jackson | WAS | 6300 | 10.5 | 3.9% |
| Allen Robinson | JAC | 7900 | 14.7 | 22.6% | Steve Johnson | SDG | 4600 | 12.8 | 7.4% |
| Tyler Lockett | SEA | 5900 | 11.1 | 23.1% | Eddie Royal | CHI | 2100 | 10.1 | 7.7% |
| Randall Cobb | GNB | 6200 | 11.8 | 23.8% | Larry Fitzgerald | ARI | 7500 | 14.5 | 11.2% |
| Amari Cooper | OAK | 6400 | 12.6 | 25.3% | Allen Robinson | JAC | 7900 | 17.7 | 11.5% |
| Doug Baldwin | SEA | 8000 | 15.8 | 25.7% | Tyler Lockett | SEA | 5900 | 13.3 | 11.8% |
| T.Y. Hilton | IND | 6800 | 13.5 | 26.0% | Randall Cobb | GNB | 6200 | 13.2 | 12.3% |
| A.J. Green | CIN | 7900 | 15.8 | 26.4% | Amari Cooper | OAK | 6400 | 12.8 | 13.3% |
Referring back to my aforementioned study of Week 17 quarterbacks, it stands to reason that one should probably also avoid wide receivers on teams that have already clinched a playoff spot, given how closely linked the two positions are in terms of fantasy production. Therefore, as much value as Keshawn Martin represents, it's hard to put my faith in him seeing as how he'll be catching passes from Jimmy Garropolo beginning relatively early in the game. Likewise, a similar case can be made for avoiding Jones and Cotchery despite their high values.
With that trio excluded, it's hard to pass up Roddy White against the Saints, especially in a tournament stack with Matt Ryan.
tight ends
Below are the tight ends with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:
| MOST LIKELY TO ACHIEVE VALUE | |||||||||
| NAME | TM | SALARY | AVG | P(CASH) | NAME | TM | SALARY | MAX | P(GPP) |
| Cooper Helfet | SEA | 1700 | 8.5 | 89.9% | Cooper Helfet | SEA | 1700 | 10.7 | 71.2% |
| Vance McDonald | SFO | 2000 | 8.1 | 77.0% | Vance McDonald | SFO | 2000 | 10.1 | 50.8% |
| Maxx Williams | BAL | 2100 | 8.4 | 76.6% | Maxx Williams | BAL | 2100 | 10.3 | 50.4% |
| LEAST LIKELY TO ACHIEVE VALUE | |||||||||
| NAME | TM | SALARY | AVG | P(CASH) | NAME | TM | SALARY | MAX | P(GPP) |
| Tyler Eifert | CIN | 7600 | 8.7 | 0.8% | Tyler Eifert | CIN | 7600 | 9.7 | 0.1% |
| Julius Thomas | JAC | 6000 | 9.0 | 4.1% | Julius Thomas | JAC | 6000 | 9.8 | 0.7% |
| Antonio Gates | SDG | 7400 | 11.3 | 4.5% | Antonio Gates | SDG | 7400 | 13.2 | 0.8% |
Excluding Helfet for playoff-related reasons, McDonald and Williams are the best values at tight end this week. McDonald's matchup is easier (St. Louis has given up the 7th-most FantasyScore points to tight ends this season), so I favor him over Williams in cash games. Furthermore, McDonald's short tenure as San Francisco's starting tight end has shown him to be more boom-or-bust than Williams, so I also favor him in tournaments.
defenses
Below are the defenses with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:
| MOST LIKELY TO ACHIEVE VALUE | |||||||||
| NAME | TM | SALARY | AVG | P(CASH) | NAME | TM | SALARY | MAX | P(GPP) |
| Indianapolis Colts | IND | 1600 | 11.9 | 93.0% | Indianapolis Colts | IND | 1600 | 11.9 | 87.4% |
| San Francisco 49ers | SFO | 1200 | 9.6 | 89.4% | San Francisco 49ers | SFO | 1200 | 9.7 | 84.1% |
| Dallas Cowboys | DAL | 1400 | 10.2 | 89.4% | Chicago Bears | CHI | 1200 | 9.6 | 83.6% |
| LEAST LIKELY TO ACHIEVE VALUE | |||||||||
| NAME | TM | SALARY | AVG | P(CASH) | NAME | TM | SALARY | MAX | P(GPP) |
| Arizona Cardinals | ARI | 3400 | 9.7 | 45.8% | Arizona Cardinals | ARI | 3400 | 10.0 | 20.8% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | KAN | 3300 | 11.3 | 61.4% | Kansas City Chiefs | KAN | 3300 | 11.4 | 34.6% |
| Carolina Panthers | CAR | 3200 | 11.1 | 62.2% | Carolina Panthers | CAR | 3200 | 11.1 | 36.2% |
As I've stated before in this space, San Francisco's defense plays better at home than on the road. This week, they're at home against a Rams offense that will be without Todd Gurley and starting Case Keenum at quarterback. Sure, that offense hasn't been surrendering many points to opposing defenses lately, including only 1 point at Seattle last week, but that's been with Gurley. As the 49ers have found out themselves with Carlos Hyde, removing a stud running back from a run-heavy offense -- either via injury or game script -- tends to have a cascading negative effect on the unit as a whole.
week 17 draft lists
Finally, to supplement the statistics-based strategies I recommended earlier in the season, here are the VBD draft lists you should use for FantasyScore's Draft-N-Go (DNG) games:
