Acing Aces

Photo: USA Today Sports

Welcome back to our feature article designed to help you find value plays in cash games and tournaments on FantasyAces. Before we get started on this week's plays, just a quick housekeeping note. As you might have noticed, Keith Roberts and I switched articles; with that comes a format change because we do things a little differently. I'm partial to the stats side of the equation, so for the rest of the season, I'm going to be using my value probability system as the backbone of this article.

What is my value probability system? Well, in one sentence, it uses player pricing, our FantasyAces point projections, the value multipliers necessary to be profitable (e.g., 3x, 4x, etc.), and the historical distribution of player scoring at each position to calculate the likelihood that a given player will score enough points to meet or exceed the number of points needed to achieve value. So, in the quarterback table below, when you see "33.4%" associated with Dak Prescott's name in the "P(GPP)" column, that means my system says Prescott has a 33.4% chance of scoring the 21.2 points he needs to achieve value given his $5300 salary, his projection of 18.4 points, and the historical distribution of quarterback scoring on FantasyAces.¹

One useful byproduct of this system is that you can compare my probabilities to projected ownership rates to see if a player, although valuable, might be owned too much to make that value profitable. In other words, Prescott's 33.4% value probability in GPPs might not be worth if it if, say, 45 percent of lineups are going to include him this week. So what we really want to do is a) target players with high value probabilities but low projected ownership rates, and b) avoid players with low value probabilities but high ownership rates.

And one final bit of FYI. This article will be updated to reflect changes in point projections between Wednesday night and Saturday night, so make sure to come back and give it a second look during the weekend to see if anything's significantly changed.

OK, with housekeeping done, let's move on to identifying the players to target and avoid on FantasyAces in Week 2.

Quarterbacks

Below are the quarterbacks with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

With FantasyAces being a two-quarterback site, I like to pair an expensive-yet-valuble QB1 with a cheap, immensely valuable QB2. This week, that means I'm pairing Cam Newton with either Eli Manning, Derek Carr, or Matthew Stafford in cash games, while pairing him with either Manning or Mariota in tournaments. Last week, San Francisco's defense pitched a shutout, but that performance was a mirage due more to the Rams' offensive ineptitude than anything spectacular done by the 49ers. All it takes is one glance at their defensive depth chart and the numerous "who?" reactions that result to realize this San Francisco's defense isn't a talented unit. Football Outsiders projected them to be a bottom-quartile defense heading into the season, so one performance at home against an awful offense shouldn't change our prior belief much, if at all. One also has to put their Week 1 performance in the context of what we know to be the weakness of Chip Kelly's frenetic offensive pace: It has a tendency to tire out his defense. Well, as the Rams spent the entire game going three-and-out, this wasn't a problem last week, but Carolina is no Los Angeles offensively. Speaking of which, we also need to put Newton's underachieving Week 1 performance in context: It was on the road against the consensus best defense in the NFL. Put all of the above context clues together, and Newton's poised for a big game on Sunday. What's more, his high price tag may make others shy away from rostering him, which means both his GPP probability and (especially) his cash game probability suggest using him as your QB1 is likely to be profitable, not just valuable.

As far as Manning, Carr, Stafford, and Mariota are concerned, those choices are mainly the result of a process of elimination with respect to the other quarterbacks in the "most likely to achieve value" category. Dak Prescott and Trevor Siemian are novices in their respective offenses and didn't show any evidence of a high ceiling in Week 1. What's more, both had a clear (understandable) tendency towards short passes, and NFL defenses pick up on that quickly. Regarding McCown, although he may be perceived as an improvement over Robert Griffin III, this is a new offense, so whatever positives we saw in previous seasons doesn't apply this season.

Running Backs

Below are the running backs with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

DeAngelo Williams and C.J. Anderson top the value list this week, but rostering the former is more likely to be profitable than rostering the latter. That's because, although both are at home against defenses that were running back-friendly in Week 1, Anderson's likely to be owned in a higher percentage of lineups because a national television audience saw what he did last week and national football media has made most everyone aware that the Colts defense is a M*A*S*H unit right now. Focusing on Williams, although Cincinnati is a divisional rival, which suggests a level of strategic familiarity, he was able to score 22.1 FantasyAces points as the starter in Week 14 last season, as well as 9.1 points in two-and-a-half quarters after Le'Veon Bell's season ended in Week 8. Now add to everything above the fact that the Steelers are home favorites, and you have a recipe for profit if you roster Williams as your value back.

If you choose to pivot away from Anderson in cash games, then Ezekiel Elliott deserves strong consideration. According to Football Outsiders, Washington's run defense ranked dead last in Week 1. And even if you incorporate preseason projections, as they do, Washington ranks 28th. Meanwhile, it was clear before the season that Dallas would be a run-first offense, and it was clear in Week 1 that said philosophy is even more relevant with Dak Prescott at the helm. In this context, the Cowboys are going to run the ball plenty. And given Elliott's underwhelming debut, it's likely that his ownership rate won't be prohibitively high this week.

In tournaments, I lean towards Jeremy Langford and Danny Woodhead in the above table. Langford acquitted himself well on the road against a stout Texans defensive line, and now he finds himself at home against a Philadelphia defense that, a la the 49ers of an earlier discussion, had a performance more indicative of their opponent than themselves. Meanwhile, although FantasyAces is only 0.5 PPR, Woodhead figures to have even more of the Chargers' market share in targets with Keenan Allen out for the year, and he -- somewhat astonishingly -- actually had more carries than Melvin Gordon in Week 1 despite a game script favoring Gordon.

Wide Receivers

Below are the wide receivers with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

 A.J. Green, Antonio Brown, and Odell Beckham, Jr. are all expensive WR1 options that also happen to have value this week. If I were forced to roster only one of the three, I'd go with Beckham for a few reasons. First and foremost, he has the softest matchup being at home against a New Orleans that will be playing without No. 1 cornerback Delvin Breaux. Second, the success of both Sterling Shepard and Victor Cruz last week means opposing pass defenses may, as early as this week, become more and more reluctant to devote so much of their gameplan and personnel towards slowing him down. Finally, given that I recommended Eli Manning earlier, Beckham works here as a valuable QB-WR stack. In the same vein, Amari Cooper, Marvin Jones, and Tajae Sharpe are also made more attractive as value options because of stacking potential with value quarterbacks; although Sharpe less so because of the likelihood that he's covered predominately by the Lions No. 1 cornerback, Darius Slay.

Elsewhere, wide receivers to plug in for value at one (or both) of the flex positions are Eli Rogers and either Tyrell Williams or Travis Benjamin. Rogers is more of a GPP target because it's uncertain as to whether or not Markus Wheaton will play this week, as well as who ends up playing slot receiver if he does return. Given his performance on Monday night, one would presume Rogers keeps that role, with Coates backing up Wheaton on the outside, but you never know. If indeed that's the case, however, Quincy Enunwa ran roughshod over Cincinnati's slot cornerback last week, so Rogers would benefit from a great individual matchup. With respect to Williams and Benjamin, the latter is better suited for use in cash games, while the former is better suited for tournaments, again due to differing levels of uncertainty. We can deduce that both are going to see an uptick in targets with Keenan Allen out for the year and San Diego being such a pass-heavy offense. But we also have more evidence of what Benjamin's likely to do with those targets than we have with Williams.

Tight Ends

Below are the tight ends with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

Eagle-eyed readers might have noticed that, in comparison to the three previous tables, the most valuable tight ends are far less likely to achieve value than the most valuable quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers. In that case, it's probably best to identify the biggest value among the chalk, and preserve budget elsewhere. Luckily, there are several options for that strategy this week.

The most attractive play, especially when you include stacking considerations, is Greg Olsen. The 49ers shut down the Rams' tight ends, but, again, that was the Rams. In the past, Olsen has had middling performances against San Francisco, but that was back before Patrick Willis retired and NaVorro Bowman tore his ACL. Vegas lines aren't gospel, but if Carolina has as big of an advantage as a 13.5-point spread indicates, then Olsen will be a primary beneficiary on offense. And if you think Vegas is way off on this one, then limit your Olsen exposure to cash games.

Aside from Olsen, Jason Witten is the next best option because of what I wrote earlier about Dak Prescott. If there's anything to be learned from last week's game against the Giants, it's that 1) like the vast majority of rookie quarterbacks, Prescott uses his underneath options as a crutch; and 2) Witten is his primary underneath option. It also doesn't hurt that he has the cheapest price tag among tight ends in the value half of the table.

Defenses

Below are the defenses with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

In sharp contrast to tight ends, the defense position offers value everywhere: Even the worst value of the week (Kansas City in cash games and Arizona in tournaments) has a higher likelihood than all but one tight end (i.e., Jason Witten in tournaments). Therefore, the best piece of advice here is to set it and forget it: Go with New England or Chicago and move on with your life.

¹ If you'd like to read more about the statistical methods underlying my value probability system, click this link, and then keep clicking on relevant links as you go down the rabbit hole.

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