Acing Aces

Photo: USA Today Sports

Welcome back to our FantasyAces feature article, wherein we identify value plays in both cash games and tournaments. The process we use starts with the statistical method described here, which results in a percentage that represents the likelihood a given player will achieve value based on his salary, his projection, and historical variation in scoring at his position. From there, we take a look at statistics related to his individual matchup, as well as any other situational factors that might affect his value likelihood (e.g., injuries, coaching tendencies, game scripts, ownership rates, etc.). This combination of stats and context allows us to narrow things down to a select group of players worth fully recommending.

Note: The value probability tables will be published on Thursday. Commentary based on the situational factors described above will be added on Friday.

QUARTERBACKS

Below are the quarterbacks with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

Among quarterbacks with high value probabilities, Andy Dalton has the best matchup of the week. Cleveland ranks 30th in FantasyAces points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, 32nd in overall defensive efficiency (per DVOA), and 31st in pass defense efficiency. The problem with using Dalton is that the weather forecast calls for sub-freezing temperatures, light snow, and winds of around 15 miles per hour. As Brian Burke's research has shown, this is a deadly combination for passing, especially for road teams. This downgrade is particularly poignant due to Dalton's value being exclusive to cash games. In that format, you want players with a high floor, but Dalton's weather-depleted floor is somewhere between the seventh and ninth Circles of Hell.

The only thing close to a matchup-based cash game alternative is Russell Wilson, as the Packers rank 28th in points allowed to quarterbacks. The weather forecast in Green Bay is nearly identical to Cleveland's, but the one difference is important. Although the temperature will also be around 30 degrees and light snow is also in the offing, the wind will only be around 5 miles per hour. That's important because wind has a much larger effect on passing than does temperature. That said, I wouldn't blame you for choosing to fade Wilson as well. If so, then the way to go is using Andrew Luck and Kirk Cousins as your two cash game quarterbacks.

In tournaments, the clear value play is Colin Kaepernick, who's facing a Jets defense that ranks 27th in overall efficiency and 32nd in pass defense efficiency. Furthermore, Kaepernick's projected ownership rate is only around 15 percent, which ranks outside the Top 3 this week.

Running Backs

Below are the running backs with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

Choosing running back values this week is relatively straightforward: DeMarco Murray and Jeremy Hill have favorable matchups and low projected ownership rates, so they're the primary options. Murray will be facing a Broncos defense that ranks 24th in FantasyAces points allowed to opposing running backs and 26th in run defense efficiency (per DVOA). He also has a projected ownership rate around 10 percent, which ranks well outside the Top 5 this week. Similarly, Hill will be facing a Browns defense that ranks 30th in points allowed to running backs and 29th in run defense efficiency. And Hill also has a projected ownership rate around 10 percent. Further in Hill's favor is the inverse of my weather-related Dalton discussion above. Again, Brian Burke's research showed that sub-freezing temperatures plus snow plus wind has a negative effect on passing. But moreover, these conditions tend to result in offenses having a higher run-to-pass ratio.

Wide Receivers

Below are the wide receivers with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

As has been the case the past few weeks, there aren't many wide receiver with high value probabilities and favorable matchups. In fact, there are actually none this week. No wide receivers in the top half of the table face a Bottom 8 pass defense in terms of FantasyAces points allowed to wide receivers or pass defense efficiency (per DVOA).

In this rare circumstance, I look to Pro Football Focus' WR-CB matchup chart. And doing so produces the following six wide receivers that have high value probabilities and favorable individual matchups: Tyrell Williams, T.Y. Hilton, Antonio Brown, Doug Baldwin, Mike Evans, and Taylor Gabriel. Although fine to use in cash games, Williams (24 percent) and Hilton (22 percent) are persona non grata in tournaments because they have the two highest projected ownership rates this week. In contrast, Taylor Gabriel only shows up in the tournament-value part of the table, and his projected ownership rate is only 10 percent. To boot, per Pro Football Focus implies that Gabriel will be facing among the worst cornerbacks in the league, E.J. Gaines.

Of Brown, Baldwin, and Evans, my value choice would be Evans in cash games and Brown in tournaments. Regarding Evans, Pro Football Focus projects him to be shadowed by Delvin Breaux, who (ironically) is a shadow of his former self in coverage. That said, Evans is in the Top 5 of projected ownership rate, so he's only a cash game option with respect to value. In contrast, Brown has a projected ownership rate is only around 5 percent, and he'll be running almost all of his routes against the Bills' inferior cornerbacks this year (per Pro Football Focus), Stephon Gilmore and Ronald Darby.

Tight Ends

Below are the tight ends with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

From a matchup perspective, there's one clear value option: Tyler Eifert. His opponent, Cleveland, enters the game ranked 30th in FantasyAces points allowed to tight ends, 31st in pass defense efficiency (per DVOA), and 31st in efficiency on tight end targets. Furthermore, his projected ownership rate is only around 10 percent. Of course, Eifert suffers from the same weather-induced downgrade that Andy Dalton did. Essentially, if not for the weather forecast, Dalton-Eifert would be a no-brainer value stack this week. Alas, play at your own risk.

As alternatives, although their stat matchups are significantly worse than Eifert's, there's Cameron Brate in cash games, and either Eric Ebron or Ladarius Green in tournaments. Brate faces a Saints pass defense ranked 26th in efficiency. Ebron faces a Bears pass defense ranked 25th in efficiency on tight end targets. Green faces a Bills pass defense ranked 26th in efficiency on tight end targets. Regarding Green, although the weather forecast for Buffalo includes sub-freezing temperatures, it doesn't include snow or high winds, which, as I wrote noted earlier, have larger effects on passing than temperature.

Defenses

Below are the defenses with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

Minnesota and Atlanta are the primary cash game options based on matchups. On Monday night, the Vikings will be facing a Jaguars offense that allows the fifth-most FantasyAces points to opposing defenses and ranks 29th in overall efficiency (per DVOA). If you want to go slightly cheaper, then the Falcons' opponent, Los Angeles, gives up the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses and ranks dead last in efficiency.

Due to projected ownership rates, Atlanta remains a value option in tournaments (around 5 percent), whereas Minnesota does not (around 30 percent). Outside of the Falcons, an even cheaper alternative is San Francisco. The 49ers will be facing a Jets offense that allows the second-most fantasy points to opposing defenses and ranks 28th in efficiency.

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