Acing Aces

Photo: USA Today Sports

Welcome back to our FantasyAces feature article, wherein we identify value plays in both cash games and tournaments. The process we use starts with the statistical method described here, which results in a percentage that represents the likelihood a given player will achieve value based on his salary, his projection, and historical variation in scoring at his position. From there, we take a look at statistics related to his individual matchup, as well as any other situational factors that might affect his value likelihood (e.g., injuries, coaching tendencies, game scripts, ownership rates, etc.). This combination of stats and context allows us to narrow things down to a select group of players worth fully recommending.

Note: The value probability tables will be published on Thursday. Commentary based on the situational factors described above will be added on Friday.

QUARTERBACKS

Below are the quarterbacks with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

Whether playing cash games or tournaments, Tyrod Taylor is the best quarterback value this week. His opponent, Oakland, ranks 26th in FantasyAces points allowed to opposing quarterbacks and 22nd in pass defense effiiency. Given Taylor's running prowess, it's also worth noting that the Raiders also rank 27th in run defense efficiency. And with respect to projected ownership rates in tournaments, Taylor's 10-15 percent ranks sixth, so there's nothing to worry about in terms of lineup uniqueness.

Running Backs

Below are the running backs with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

Three running backs rank among the Top 10 value probabilities and also have favorable stat matchups: David Johnson, Jordan Howard, and Theo Riddick. Johnson faces a Washington defense that ranks 32nd in run defense efficiency (per DVOA) and 26th in FantasyAces points allowed to opposing running backs. Howard faces a 49ers defense that ranks 32nd in points allowed to opposing running backs and 30th in run defense efficiency. Finally, Riddick faces a Saints defense that 28th in fantasy points allowed and ranks 32nd in pass defense efficiency on running back targets, the latter of which is particularly relevant given his receiving prowess.

Unfortunately, Johnson, Howard, and Riddick happen to have the highest projected ownership rates too, so you can only roster (at most) one of them in tournaments. Given all of the various factors, I'd go with Howard. He's got a lower price tag than Johnson, the weather conditions in Chicago and Matt Barkley at quarterback suggest a heavy reliance on the running game. Furthermore, given that Washington ranks third in pass defense efficiency on running back targets and that FantasyAces' scoring system awards only 0.5 PPR, Johnson's receiving points figure to be suppressed.

So which running backs with Top 10 value probabilities are the best alternatives for tournament lineups? Well, Melvin Gordon faces a Buccaneers defense ranked 27th in pass defense on running back targets and LeSean Mccoy faces a Raiders defense ranked 27th in run defense efficiency. And in terms of projected ownership rates, they're in the 15 percent range, as opposed to Johnson, Howard, and Riddick's 30 percent range.

Wide Receivers

Below are the wide receivers with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

I'm going to cut to the chase here. Larry Fitzgerald, Doug Baldwin, and T.Y. Hilton each represent high value and have exploitable projected ownership rates in the 5-10 percent range. They also happen to be the only three wide receivers in the top half of the table that have a favorable matchupa in even one of the three stat categories I look at (i.e., FantasyAces points allowed to wide receivers, Football Outsiders' pass defense efficiency, and Pro Football Focus' individual matchup grades). Specifically, as all three run the majority of their routes out of the slot, all three have individual matchups against awful slot cornerbacks per Pro Football Focus. Hilton has the best matchup, as he'll actually be getting shadowed by Buster Skrine. Meanwhile, Fitzgerald will be matched up against rookie Kendall Fuller and Doug Baldwin will be matched up against newly promoted to the active roster Leonard Johnson.

Tight Ends

Below are the tight ends with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

This is awkward. So, none of the tight ends in the top half of the table fit the usual bill of having matchups against the Bottom 8 in both FantasyAces points allowed and pass defense efficiency on tight end targets, but all five have projected ownership rates amenable to both cash games and tournaments.

So who to go with for value? Well, at least Graham and Kelce face a Bottom 8 defense in one of them. Specifically, Carolina and Atlanta (i.e., their opponents this week) rank 29th and 27th in points allowed to opposing tight ends, respectively. Given their value probabilities, my advice would be to go with Kelce in cash games and Graham in tournaments.

Defenses

Below are the defenses with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

Continuing the them, this is a weird week when it comes to finding a value defense. On one hand, the default recommendation is "the cheaper the better" because even the lowest value probability is higher than any other position. On the other hand, the two defenses with high value probabilities and highly favorable matchups are New England and Denver, which (unfortunately) happen to be the most expensive.

The resolution to this dilemma is to distinguish between cash games and tournaments. In cash games, New England is a better "value" option than Denver because, in addition to facing a wildly inefficient offense (per DVOA) that has allowed a ton of FantasyAces points to opposing defenses and is starting a rookie quarterback, the Patriots will be at home as the fourth-most efficient run defense in sub-40 degree weather.

Tournaments are a different story -- one that focuses squarely on Bears-49ers. The game will be played in cold, rainy, windy conditions. That will bring run offense to the fore even more than normal when there's a matchup between two run-oriented offenses with the two running backs being the best skill position players on the field. Per DVOA, San Francisco has a better run offense (7th) than Chicago (19th), but the 49ers have a worse run defense (30th) than the Bears (21st). And with respect to fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs, San Francisco ranks dead last, whereas Chicago ranks fourth.

In terms of ownership rates, both are projected in the one-to-five percent range, so that's not an issue. They have the same cost, so that's not an issue either. This one really is a toss-up. My advice would be to go use Chicago in 50 percent of your tournament lineups and San Francisco in the other 50 percent.

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