Acing Aces

Photo: USA Today Sports

Welcome back to our FantasyAces feature article, wherein we identify value plays in both cash games and tournaments. The process we use starts with the statistical method described here, which results in a percentage that represents the likelihood a given player will achieve value based on his salary, his projection, and historical variation in scoring at his position. From there, we take a look at statistics related to his individual matchup, as well as any other situational factors that might affect his value likelihood (e.g., injuries, coaching tendencies, game scripts, ownership rates, etc.). This combination of stats and context allows us to narrow things down to a select group of players worth fully recommending.

Note: The value probability tables will be published on Thursday. Commentary based on the situational factors described above will be added on Friday.

Before getting started, one other quick note that only applies to this week is that, because there was no Thursday-Monday slate, there was no tournament ownership data available. Therefore, I'll (unfortunately) only be discussing player matchups. With that said, one way around this is to use a rule of thumb I've found regarding how my value probabilities relate to ownership. Namely, players with Top 3 probabilities at each position almost always end up having prohibitively high ownership, especially if they're on the cheaper end of the salary scale and especially if they're a running back.

QUARTERBACKS

Below are the quarterbacks with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

Among high-value quarterbacks, Carson Wentz has the best statistical matchup of the week, as he'll be playing at home against a Packers defense ranked 25th in FantasyAces points allowed to opposing quarterbacks and 23rd in pass defense efficiency (per DVOA). Green Bay also grades out as second-worst in pass coverage according to Pro Football Focus, with four different cornerbacks allowing a passer rating above 110.

Cam Newton's matchup is only slightly worse facing a Raiders pass defense ranked 24th in efficiency and 23rd in points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Furthermore, their best cornerback, David Amerson, is questionable with a knee injury. Either he'll play at less than 100 percent or he won't play at all; which bodes well for No. 1 wideout Kelvin Benjamin. Another thing working in Newton's favor is that Oakland also has the 6th-least effecient run defense, so he should be able to rebound from last week's five-carry, seven-yard stinker against New Orleans.

Two other quarterbacks have high value probabilities, but have matchups that don't reach the level of Wentz's or Newton's: Russell Wilson and Newton's countepart, Derek Carr. For Wilson, it may come as a surprise that, although they've allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, Tampa Bay ranks a respectable 18th in pass defense efficiency. Wilson et al. has been on a tear lately, and the Buccaneers' slot cornerback is serving a suspension (read: Doug Baldwin FTW), but Tampa Bay's pass defense isn't as bad -- at least statistically speaking -- as you think; they've just given up two really big games to Matt Ryan and Derek Carr. Speaking of Carr, he'll be facing a Panthers defense ranked 24th in quarterback points allowed but 18th in pass defense efficiency.

Running Backs

Below are the running backs with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

Jay Ajayi and David Johnson both offer great value this week and have great matchups. Ajayi should already be on everyone's radar simply because "which back is playing San Francisco?" is among the first questions everyone finds the answer to each week. Because you already know all about the 49ers' futility in run defense, I'll only add that they also rank 22nd in pass defense efficiency on running back targets (per DVOA). True, Miami doesn't throw the ball to their backs all that often. But when those rare opportunities do arise, Ajayi has a matchup good enough to make the most of them.

Lack of opportunity in the passing game will not be a problem for David Johnson, so Atlanta's low ranking in pass defense efficiency on running back targets (24th) will likelty translate into more receiving points for Johnson than San Francisco's will translate for Ajayi. To boot, although not as bad as the historically bad 49ers, the Falcons run defense is nevertheless pretty bad: 28th in efficiency, 29th in points allowed to running backs.

Of course, going back to what I wrote in the introduction about projecting ownership rates in the absence of hard data this week, Johnson and (especially) Ajayi are just the type of likely-to-be-highly-owned players I described: at the top of my value probability table and also a running back. Therefore, if you're going to avoid either or both, here are four more matchup-based value options to consider in tournaments: Melvin Gordon, Thomas Rawls, Rashad Jennings, and Spencer Ware.

• Gordon faces a Houston defense that ranks 25th in points allowed to running backs and 28th in pass defense efficiency on running back targets.
• Rawls faces a Tampa Bay defense that ranks 23rd in points allowed to running backs and 27th in pass defense efficiency on runng back targets.
• Jennings faces a Cleveland defense that ranks 31st in points allowed to running backs and 30th in run defense efficiency.
• Ware faces a Broncos defense that's decidedly one-dimensional insofar as their top-ranked pass defense is counterbalanced with a porous run defense. To wit, they rank 26th in points allowed to running backs and 25th in run defense efficiency.

Given their Top 7 appearances in my table, all four of these alternate value options have a chance to be highly owned; just not all four and not nearly as highly owned as Ajayi and Johnson.

Wide Receivers

Below are the wide receivers with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

Unfortunately, there's only one wide receiver below $4,800 with a Top 15 probability and a favorable statistical matchup, so we need to put quotation marks around "value" this week. That man is Jordan Matthews, who faces a Packers pass defense that ranks 30th in FantasyAces points allowed to wide receivers, as well as 23rd in efficiency (and dropping). Individually, Matthews will be running about 75 percent of his routes against slot cornerback Micah Hyde, who ranks among the worst at his position according to Pro Football Focus. One positive byproduct of using Matthews for tournament is that you can stack him with Carson Wentz, whose value credentials I detailed earlier.

The best of the higher-priced options this week is Larry Fitzgerald, who has a Matthews-like threefold matchup advantage. His opponent, Atlanta, ranks 28th in points allowed to opposing wide receivers and 22nd in pass defense efficiency. Furthermore, running about 65 percent of his routes from the slot means he'll be getting covered by rookie Brian Poole a majority of the time and, more importantly, not be seeing much of Desmond Trufant. Of course Trufant's a game-time decision, so it may end up being the case that Fitzgerald finds success no matter where he lines up. The only concern is his potential to have a prohibitively high ownership rate in tournaments.

The same concern holds for Doug Baldwin. Yes, Tampa Bay's pass defense ranks 25th in points allowed to wide receivers. Yes, he should be able to outclass slot-corner-in-a-pinch Vernon Hargreaves. That said, Baldwin's No. 1 value probability suggests he'll have a prohibitively high ownership rate, an indication exacerbated by the attractiveness of stacking him with the aforementioned Russell Wilson, who also has a No. 1 value probability.

The three remaining "values" with favorable statistical matchups are as follows:

• Julian Edelman faces a Jets pass defense ranked 30th in efficiency. He'll also be on Revis Island, whose once-majestic shores have receded into the sea this season.
• Similarly, Pro Football Focus projects that Odell Beckham will be getting shadowed by Joe Haden, who's an injury-induced shell of his former self. And as a unit, Cleveland's pass defense ranks 30th in efficiency.
• Rishard Matthews faces a Bears pass defense ranked dead last in points allowed to opposing wide receivers.

Tight Ends

Below are the tight ends with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

As usual, it's typically best to pay up for tight ends because of how little value there is at the position. The player to pay up for this week is Greg Olsen, who faces a Raiders pass defense that ranks 24th in FantasyAces points allowed to opposing tight ends and 24th in efficiency (per DVOA).

Normally, I would offer other "value" options here, but -- somewhat amazingly -- none of the other tight ends in the top half of the table face a Bottom 8 pass defense in any of the three stat categories I look at (i.e., points allowed, overall efficiency, and efficiency on tight end targets).

Defenses

Below are the defenses with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

New Orleans's defense ranks 27th in FantasyAces points, so Buffalo (4th) is a better value option in cash games, albeit slightly more expensive. The Bills face a Jaguars offense ranked 28th in points allowed to defenses and 29th in efficiency (per DVOA). In addition, Jacksonville has one of the worst punt coverage units in the league according to net expected points.

In tournaments, there are three options. There's the aforementioned Bills and Saints, the latter of which is at home against a rookie-led Rams offense that hasn't scored more than 10 points in over a month. Then there's the Patriots, who face a Jets offense that's allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points to opposing defenses and ranks 27th in efficiency. And like Buffalo, New England has a distinct advantage in the return game, as the Jets rank in the Bottom 8 of net expected points on both punt coverage and kickoff coverage.

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