The Rundown: FantasyScore Week 15

Photo: USA Today Sports

Before getting to Week 15, let's first look back at how my value probability system fared last week for quarterbacks and running backs, the two positions at which I've previously demonstrated that it works well.

At quarterback, the No. 1 value, Johnny Manziel, achieved it in cash games, but not in tournaments, while the other two high-value quarterbacks didn't score enough points in both formats. Of course, neither did all three quarterbacks on the low-value list, so we'll call this position a push.

Among high-value running backs, four of the five in last week's table achieved value in cash games, while three of five did so in tournaments. That would be great except for the fact that the No. 1 value, C.J. Spiller, didn't achieve value in either format despite having a probability among the highest of the season. What seems to have happened here is that the timeshare between Spiller and Tim Hightower -- who was also on the list, I should add -- didn't proceed as projected.

Alright, on to the Week 15 value probabilities...

quarterbacks

Below are the quarterbacks with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

In my opinion, Stafford and Rivers are better cash game values than Yates because their floors are higher. Stafford needs to score 19.2 points to achieve value, and the Saints defense has given up at least that many to opposing quarterbacks in 10 of their 13 games. Yes, two of the three games below 19.2 points have come in the past three weeks, but both of those were against the run-heavy offenses of Tampa Bay and Houston. Meanwhile, although Miami's pass defense has given up the 18.0 points Rivers requires for cash game in only 7 games, their performance has fallen off a cliff the past three weeks, including allowing Matt Schaub -- Matt Schaub! -- to throw for over 300 yards two weeks ago.

On the low-value side, Palmer's a good candidate to overcome the odds simply due to his matchup: Philadelphia's defense has allowed opposing quarterbacks to score at least 25.8 points in three of the their past four games.

running backs

Below are the running backs with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

All of the high-value running backs are too unreliable to use in cash games, but Robinson is someone I'd target in tournaments. With T.J. Yeldon doubtful to play, Robinson will have Atlanta's run defense all to himself. He needs 13.2 points to achieve tournament value, and the Falcons have surrendered at least that many to 11 different running backs this season. And if you, again, account for the fact that he's going to get almost all of the work, then it's valid to point out that the Falcons' run defense has given up at least 13.2 points total to every opposing backfield they've faced.

In the bottom half of the table, Anderson and Matthews are the running backs to fade, but you've probably been fading them for a couple of months now. Otherwise, there's an interesting dynamic with Houston and Washington wherein the table as a whole gives clear guidance regarding which member of the backfield committee to consider using and which to consider fading.

All of that said, there's a lot of dreck in this table talent-wise, so I wouldn't blame you for avoiding all 10 of the running backs listed.

wide receivers

Below are the wide receivers with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

Floyd and Wilson are my primary picks for value wide receivers because they're playing the 31st- and 30th-ranked pass defense (per DVOA), respectively. For Floyd, the Dolphins rank dead last (per DVOA) in pass defense efficiency against No. 1 wide receivers. And with Stevie Johnson doubtful to play, those targets have to go somewhere. Meanwhile, Baltimore's allowed 28 different receivers (!!!) to score at least 8 points, which is what Wilson needs to achieve value. Furthermore, that total includes three of Seattle's four wideouts last week.

On the bottom of the table, Matthews is a clear fade made clearer by the fact that he has one of the least favorable individual receiver/cornberack matchups of the week (per Pro Football Focus). (Also worth noting is that Nelson Agholor, although a good value this week, also has a horrible individual matchup.) In contrast, one receiver in particular isn't necessary to fade because his individual matchup is easily favorable enough to overcome his low-value status: Danny Amendola.

tight ends

Below are the tight ends with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

First, Will Tye, the Footballguys Value Guy.

With that obligatory mention out of the way, both Vernon Davis and Ben Watson should definitely be in your universe of tight ends to roster this week. Given that Davis' big Week 14 came against tight end-friendly Oakland, and that it was his first strong receiving performance in eons, there's a low-floor, high-ceiling variance dynamic at play this week. That's okay because we embrace variance in tournaments, but just keep in mind that a 5-point dud is a distinct possibility, especially against a Steelers defense that covers tight ends well (ranked 8th per DVOA). Watson, on the other hand, is less of a crap shoot, both because of his higher floor (and higher ceiling) and because Detroit is worse at defending tight ends (ranked 30th per DVOA).

defenses

Below are the defenses with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

It's rare to find good defenses in the bargain bin, so the trick here is to figure out which of the 49ers, Colts, and Chargers (if any) is going to be less bad than their price implies. There are arguments in favor of all three: San Francisco's facing A.J. McCarron, Indianapolis is facing T.J. Yates, and San Diego has been playing better the past couple of weeks. If I had to choose, I'd go with either the Colts or the 49ers. Yes, Indianapolis has given up 96 points the past two weeks, which brings the dreaded "negative score" into play, but both of those performances came against offenses that can score a ton of points. Houston, especially with Yates, does not qualify as such an offense. For San Francisco, they tend to play better at home (esp. in pass defense), and McCarron's inexperience means mental errors -- like last week's pick-six -- are more likely. Also, their game has the lowest over-under of Week 15, so a negative score is unlikely for them. 

week 15 draft lists

Finally, to supplement the statistics-based strategies I recommended earlier in the season, here are the VBD draft lists you should use for FantasyScore's Draft-N-Go (DNG) games:

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