The Rundown: FantasyScore Week 13

Photo: USA Today Sports

Next week, I'll present the full-blown analysis of how well my value probabilities predict wide receivers actually achieving value, so let's instead take a quick look back to its accuracy for quarterbacks and running backs in Week 12. Overall, the results reflected well on my system.

For quarterbacks in cash games, the three that were most likely to achieve value averaged a 72.9% probability, and two of the three did score at least 3x. For GPPs, the average probability was 49.7%, but only one of the three ended up scoring at least 4x. Matt Hasselbeck showed up on both lists, and his 23.5 points surpassed both the 17.4 required for cash games and the 23.2 required for GPPs. The only disaster among the four different quarterbacks across these two lists was Teddy Bridgewater, who only scored 7.4 points, which was well below the 14.4 required for cash games and 19.2 required for GPPs.

Among the quarterbacks who were least likely to achieve value last week, the same three quarterbacks were on both lists. Tom Brady and Drew Brees failed to score 3x in cash games and failed to score 4x in tournaments. Meanwhile, Ben Roethlisberger's 26.6 points against Seattle was high enough to achieve cash game value, but not high enough to achieve GPP value.

At running back, the five most likely to achieve cash game value produced three that actually did so. Given the average probability of 73.5% for that group, either three or four of them (i.e., between 60 and 80 percent) should have achieved value, so reality ended up conforming to expectation. My predictions for tournaments were slightly worse, with only two of five backs achieving value when their 63.5% average probability suggested three of them should have. The biggest disappointment was Jonathan Grimes, who appeared on both lists (72.5% for cash games, 69.4% for GPPs), but barely scored 2x, let alone 3x or 4x.

Meanwhile, the "least likely to achieve value" results for running backs were pretty much spot on. The same five running backs were on both the cash game and GPP lists, with an average value probability of 8.2% in the former format and 4.3% in the latter. Therefore, 0-for-5 was the probable outcome for both lists. And indeed, none of the five backs achieved value in either format.

So, all in all, my value probability system was a success in Week 12. Hopefully, that means your bankrolls are larger for this week's slate. Speaking of which, let's move on to the probabilities for Week 13. 

quarterback

Below are the quarterbacks with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

As mentioned earlier, Hasselbeck achieved both 3x and 4x value last week. Despite that, and despite an equally good matchup against Pittsburgh this week, his salary only went up $100. That means 23.5 points will easily do the trick once again. With respect to Smith and Mariota, their value tends to be overly dependent on touchdown passes, so a) I'd only use them in GPPs, and b) I'd lean towards Mariota given that he's facing a worse pass defense (per DVOA).

Among low-likelihood quarterbacks, while Brees is the clear fade, and Palmer's prohibitively expensive, Manning is tempting, especially in cash games. With Darrelle Revis out for the game, 23.7 points seems well within reach. And remember, although his 28.0% chance is among the lowest of the week, a 3-to-1 underdog isn't all that big of an underdog at all -- just ask any poker player.

running backs

Below are the running backs with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

If Grimes couldn't achieve value against the Saints defense last week, I'm not trusting him to do so this week, regardless of what the top part of the table says. Instead, I'll go with a guy who met value expectations last week, and has shown himself to be a three-down back on a team that features the position: namely, Shaun Draughn. It also helps Draughn's case that he's facing the 31th-ranked rush defense in the NFL (per DVOA). This is a unit that somehow made Eddie Lacy look good last week, even as a receiver. That last bit is especially important for Draughn, receives dumpoffs from Blaine Gabbert with regularity.

Bolden may look tempting as a value play given his 19.5 points against Denver's defense last week, but consider the following. First, 13.3 of those points came on one play. Second, he only played 15 snaps. Third, his head coach is Bill Belichick, notorious purveyor of running back shenanigans.

wide receivers

Below are the wide receivers with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

If I had to choose one wide receiver that's likely to achieve value, but won't, it's Dontrelle Inman. That's because, according to Pro Football Focus, he has the least favorable individual matchup in the league this week. Inman lines up on either side of the formation with equal frequency. But whether he lines up outside left or outside right, he's going to have a hard time getting open against Bradley Roby (left) and Aqib Talib (right), both of whom rank among the best cornerbacks this season.

Keeping with the theme of highlighting where my system might go wrong, Ginn is among my favorite value plays this week. Above and beyond the benefits of facing New Orleans' pass defense as whole, he will be spending at least two-thirds of the game running routes against Brandon Browner, arguably the worst cornerback in the NFL this season.

tight ends

Below are the tight ends with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

It's not a proper FantasyScore Rundown article without Tye showing up as one of the tight ends most likely to achieve value, so there he is. Among the non-mainstays, McDonald is the clear choice for various reasons. First and foremost, his bargain-basement salary means he needs a mere 6.8 points to achieve value in both formats. Second, Garrett Celek has been ruled out for Week 13. Third, McDonald's coming off his best receiving game of the season. Fourth, Chicago's pass defense ranks 23rd against tight ends (per DVOA).

On the bottom of the table, although I could see any of Bennett, Reed, or Gates achieving value despite a bottom-dwelling value probability, their salaries preclude them from lineup consideration. Yeah, I mean, if you bluffed me, I say, "good bluff, kid."

defenses

Below are the defenses with the highest (and lowest) probabilities of achieving value in cash games and GPPs:

Is this a glitch? It must be a glitch. Either that, or it's a trap! Somehow, the Bengals defense has pulled off the most unlikely of exactas: They have the lowest salary among FantasyScore defenses, but the highest average Footballguys projection. To put their probabilities into perspective, the odds of them not achieving value in cash games (332-to-1) are about the same as the Lakers had of winning the NBA championship prior to the season.

week 13 draft lists

Finally, to supplement the statistics-based strategies I recommended earlier in the season, here are the VBD draft lists you should use for FantasyScore's Draft-N-Go (DNG) games:

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