Instead of being reactionary to NFL free agency, I like to be proactive tracking upcoming free agents and the connected dynasty player value dominoes. Here are the key pieces for the 2016 offseason at wide receiver and tight end:
*Data used from spotrac.com for contracts*
wide receiverS
Alshon Jeffery: Not talking about much as upcoming free agent. A Q&A with the Chicago Tribune in October projected for the franchise tag at a minimum, working on a longer-term deal in the process. Kevin White will be back in 2016 and Marquess Wilson has shown improvement this season with the depth chart opportunity.
Michael Crabtree: What a rebound season for Michael Crabtree on an up-and-coming passing game in Oakland. Amari Cooper is the long-term lead receiver and I project a value loss for Crabtree, who is nearing the end of receivers' historical prime, if he left. Caution is advised with nearly every player changing teams in free agency and Crabtree having such a high volume of consistent targets in another offense with as good of a quarterback as Derek Carr is a gamble.
Percy Harvin: Fits the criteria of former high-producer with limited dynasty market value appeal. I will continue to bet on Harvin for such low entry cost as a trade throw-in or off shallow leagues' waiver wires. Harvin had two games of 65+ yards early this season in Buffalo but 2011 was the last time we saw a prolonged stint of vintage Harvin usage and production. Harvin will be 28 in May with still a shot or two in the NFL if he proves healthy.
Rueben Randle: Largely a disappointment based on his physical attributes, draft position, and opportunities with the Giants. His inconsistency this far into his career is a worrisome trait. At worst, he would be brought into a new depth chart as the WR3. Paying a third round rookie pick for Randle is fair, more is a premium I wouldn't pay considering Randle's stagnation against secondary cornerbacks for years with a quality quarterback.
Travis Benjamin: Can add speed to any offense, while opportunity would be diminished elsewhere on a more competitive depth chart, an uptick in quarterback play and big play opportunities would likely increase. Like Randle, I would not invest more than a third round pick on Benjamin seeing a rise in market value during the offseason.
Marvin Jones, Mohamed Sanu: The previously-loaded Cincinnati passing game could lose two of its valuable secondary weapons this offseason. They have jockeyed back and forth in opportunity and value over their rookie contracts. Sanu is the big-bodied option, but Jones has shown more movement acumen and his production peaks have been higher to-date. Either leaving could bode well for Tyler Eifert's volume increasing (or Giovani Bernard) to round out his red zone and touchdown foundation.
Josh Gordon: Has been off the radar for a while with off-the-field concerns. His historic peak season seems like a decade ago. Changing teams is not the pivot point for Gordon's long-term viability. On any dynasty roster Gordon is a quality stash down a receiver depth chart as we have seen the production and he likely gets another uptick in value with positive news.
Tre McBride (Restricted): Once a likely Day 2 pick, McBride is on the NFL fringe. Tennessee's depth chart is wide open even with Dorial Green-Beckham's recent flash game. Marcus Mariota has looked functional and McBride profiles in a Roddy White-like mold. I root for McBride to stick in Tennessee, showing confidence in the team who brought him in a year ago, and stash him from dynasty waiver wires in shallower leagues.
Seth Roberts (Restricted): Roberts has exceled as the No.3 in Oakland. While naturally a long-shot as an undrafted free agency from an off-the-radar college program, he has flourished consistently in 2015. I root for Oakland to keep Roberts if Crabtree walks as a de facto No.2 or competition for a rookie or free agent brought in as a replacement.
Leonard Hankerson: After being off-the-radar, Hankerson rebounded as a functional No.2/3 in Atlanta in 2015. I have a feeling that was the best opportunity for Hankerson as an inconsistent receiver even when productive in his career. At his peak earlier this season, Hankerson drew Round 2 rookie picks in dynasty trades. I doubt owners can even get a third for Hankerson going forward.
Kamar Aiken: Has flashed as the de facto No.1 with Steve Smith and Breshad Perriman injured in Baltimore. I root for Aiken to find a new team in 2016 as Perriman will be back, Steve Smith is a question mark, and expect Baltimore to bring in more weapons for a depleted passing game.
tight endS
Antonio Gates, Ladarius Green: Like DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart years ago in Carolina, the duo in San Diego is finally projected to split up. Gates is a prime candidate to chase the ring with a discount deal at an elder age on a strong NFL contender. I like Gates more than Vernon Davis going to a new situation and remaining a 1-year rental type player for contending dynasty owners. Ladarius Green is an acquired taste as a hybrid player with wide receiver-like movement in a closer to tight end-sized frame. NFL teams going after Green in free agency *should* have a very committed plan for using Green. That is a positive for Green as a moveable chess piece.
Vernon Davis: A lower-level Gates addition for a competitive team. While still an above-average athlete by NFL standards, the freak-level quality is not there this year from my view. Davis can still stretch the seam, but outside of TE-premium formats, I would have pause rostering Davis with fewer than 25 roster spots into the offseason.
Dwayne Allen, Coby Fleener: Like San Diego, the main two Colts' tight ends are set to enter free agency. Dwayne Allen has looked like a baseline talent of late and I see Fleener as having more upside and appeal for NFL teams. Fleener flashed in 2014 with TE1 upside and is a dirt cheap investment from a cost-to-draft position/physical upside combination.
Gary Barnidge: 2015 was the perfect storm for Barnidge to produce. The Browns have little at wide receiver, saw functional quarterback play for most of the season, and no defense saw the older breakout tight end coming. All three of those factors can change with free agency. Historically tight ends typically have minimal wide receiver competition for production and/or high-level quarterback play to be impact fantasy options. A change of team means more wide receiver compeition for Barnidge's targets.
James Hanna: One of the better athletes at the position, has blocked quite a bit as a secondary option in Dallas. Hanna is an under-the-radar TE-premium stash in deep leagues to be the No.2 on another depth chart, an injury away from being a Derek Carrier-like uptick player.
Ben Watson: A career year in his mid-30s in 2015. The former first round pick still has above-average athleticism. New Orleans is in transition. Staying with the Saints would be a boost for Watson and I doubt a free run of starting snaps is available for Watson elsewhere. Monitor Watson as a boom-bust free agency asset in the offseason.
Zach Miller: Has flashed with an expanded opportunity in 2015, enough to project a No.2 or better depth chart landing in free agency.
Josh Hill (Restricted): Many times dynasty owners are a year early in their hype of an upside player. Hill fits the mold after Jimmy Graham left New Orleans and Ben Watson promptly took the lead spot. If Watson leaves, 2016 could be the rebound year for Hill, a year late. How the Saints address tight end this offseason (and if they keep Hill) will be telling about Hill's fantasy future if he is a committee player in the NFL or if we were merely a year early in our enthusiasm.
Larry Donnell (Restricted), Will Tye (Exclusive Rights): Donnell is 'just a guy' by NFL tight end standards with his peak production being fueled by touchdowns and being a defensive afterthought in coverage. Tye is doing at least as much as Donnell, if not better, in a similar situation of late. Outside of one of them remaining in New York, without the other, I am staying away from stashing either one through rookie draft time.
