20/20 Hindsight - Week 6 (Would've, Could've, Should've)
Who Would've Known So Many NFL Undrafted Free Agents Would Be Fantasy Factors? Entering Week 6, there's a notable number of players producing at a high level for their NFL teams and your fantasy rosters. Did you realize that 25 percent of the top-20 fantasy runners began their NFL careers as undrafted free agents (Arian Foster, Joique Bell, Fred Jackson, Danny Woodhead and Pierre Thomas)?
Undrafted free agent receivers Wes Welker, Victor Cruz, Nate Washington, Kenbrell Thompkins, Doug Baldwin, and Marlon Brown are among the top 48 fantasy producers at the position - four of them were in the position's Top-30 entering the weekend. While there aren't any tight ends that qualify (Joseph Fauria's 3-TD weekend aside), undrafted free agent quarterbacks Tony Romo, Brian Hoyer, and Thaddeus Lewis have all had a positive impact under center this year.
Lesson Learned: Fantasy owners need an annual reminder that the NFL Draft is not the singular factor that defines the talent of a player. The April selection process is just as much about character, team fit, and safe financial decision-making. While some teams will take more calculated risks than others, teams like to pick players with safe bullet points on the resume:
- Big-name school.
- Multiple years as a college starter.
- Statistical productivity.
- Top-tier height, weight, speed, and quickness.
- The right proportion of potential-to-risk in terms of character.
One of my consistent messages as a football writer is to practice patience as a fan. It doesn't mean you should hold players like Joique Bell and Brian Hoyer on your team from their rookie years until they show something. Just don't write off players because they earn limited opportunities.
The assumption that a player isn't earning chances early in his career must mean that he's not performing well in camp is a errant perspective. Many undrafted free agents are acquired for depth and their opportunities are limited because their depth chart remains healthy, the coach doesn't see a scheme fit that his scouts imagined, or the player and an error or two on a much smaller amount of opportunities than the average drafted player and it skewed the impression of coaches and media.
While most fantasy owners are trying to learn how to limit their options, skilled competitors understand it's best not to write off players based on poor assumptions. Keep an open mind even if you don't open a spot on your roster.
Who Could've Known So Many Would Kick Themselves Over Benching Larry Fitzgerald? The Cardinals' starter had 117 yards on 6 catches, including a 75-yard touchdown where he spun away from the angle of two defenders and picked up two blocks up the right flat. There were fantasy writers on my Twitter feed lamenting their advice to bench Fitzgerald and other articles stating that the Arizona wide receiver's hamstring looked good.
If by "good" they meant Fitzgerald wasn't limping and he didn't need to leave the game then I agree. But judging by the pile of sand it looked like the wide receiver was running through compared to the rest of the players on the field, I'd have to disagree. While he gained another 42 yards on 5 catches, I'd hardly call it a dynamic performance when you consider that the best part of Fitzgerald's day was a spin move that made two players miss on what should have been a gain of 10-12 yards and not a 75-yard score.
Lesson Learned: What we observe is subjective. I'm happy for Fitzgerald owners who started the wide receiver, but I think 80 percent of the time the Cardinals receiver would have been held to a gain of 10-12 yards even if his hamstring was completely healthy. Continue to monitor his health over the next few weeks and celebrate the fact that sometimes it's better to be lucky than good.
We Should Have Known It Wasn't Safe to Depend on Danny Amendola: All it took was two games, six targets, and one run for the Patriots' free agent signee to leave the field after missing three games to begin the season. Amendola carried the ball around left end, tried to take on two defenders near the sideline rather than exit the boundary and was out on contact - falling limp to the turf and appearing disoriented as team officials escorted him from the field, to the bench, and ultimately to the locker room.
Lesson Learned: Amendola is a great lesson in risk assessment. Just as NFL teams approach its draft by relying more on risk assessment factors (see above) than straight-up talent, there's something to be said about doing the same with your fantasy drafts. The higher the player's ADP, the less risk he should present in terms of off-field issues, injury history, and history of consistent production. Those who drafted Amendola, Colin Kepernick, and Trent Richardson early are suffering the brunt of these hard lessons.
There's nothing wrong with taking calculated risks, but first it's important to discern good risk from bad risk. Waiting until the fourth or fifth round to take your first starting running back is a good risk if you consider the history of turnover among the ranks of starting running backs and you get understand who are the safest top options at wide receiver, quarterback, and tight end during the first four rounds.
Taking two running backs early because the perception of the supply of talent is short is a bad risk. Just ask fantasy owners of the backs who account for 41 percent of the top-24 fantasy runners entering Week 6. This list includes the likes of Knowshon Moreno, Fred Jackson, Giovani Bernard, Joique Bell, Danny Woodhead, Pierre Thomas, Bilal Powell, Andre Ellington, Deangelo williams, and Jason Snelling.
Risk assessment has several factors and Amendola presented an inordinately high risk based on his history of injuries to several parts of his body. I'll take a player with one chronic issue where there's a chance he's finally past the hurdle that's been bugging him in recent years (Antonio Gates), but I think it's best to pass on an option in the first 5-7 rounds who can't finish a season and the injury is different every year.
Random Thoughts
What is it about Rob Housler that has Bruce Arians preferring to use the young tight end in the passing game instead of his third wide receiver Andre Roberts? Housler has started four games and has a total of 6 catches for 68 yards for a team that cannot protect its quarterback. Andre Roberts had 64 catches, 759 yards, and 5 touchdowns last year.
Perhaps more two tight end sets makes life more difficult for defenses in theory, but in practice it's better to have your best players on the field. Tight end Jim Dray can block better than Housler, and Roberts is a bigger matchup problem in the passing game. Why Arians isn't using more three-receiver sets is hard to fathom. My only guess is that Roberts' quad injury during the final preseason game was a bigger deal than the team let on and he's still struggling to get healthy.
If that's not it, then I don't understand why they aren't using their best receivers on the field and keeping their tight end at the line of scrimmage to protect Carson Palmer. Of course, Jake Matthews or Taylor Lewan could be a nice pick and a winning record will make it much harder for the Cardinals to acquire a lineman of the A&M or Michigan left tackle's talent in April. Too conspiratorial I know, but I won't say it hasn't crossed my mind.
IDP dynasty owner? Four players I'd be stashing in deep leagues: Corey Lemonier, Kawaan Short, Tank Carradine, and Vince Williams. Lemonier and Short are obvious stashes in recent weeks, but they're beginning to build a known fantasy resume. Carradine's knee injury and long-time starter Justin Smith keep Carradine in the shadows. Once he's 100 percent, he has a chance to develop into a player along the lines of Smith but with even greater athletic upside. Williams wasn't conceptually sound at Florida State, but he's a top-notch athlete who has impressed the Steelers as a quick learner. The fact that he's even seeing the field as much as he is should tell you that Pittsburgh and most of all, Dick Lebeau see great progress.
Sean Lee is a fine IDP linebacker and a quality NFL player. But as much hype as he gets, I see him getting beat for a big play against the run or defending the pass on a weekly basis. Chris Collinsworth said Lee can keep up with most tight ends in the league, but I watched him get spanked by Julius Thomas and Antonio Gates in back-to-back weeks. While Lee made a nice play to prevent an Alfred Morris touchdown against Washington on Sunday night, he's far from unblockable. Good player, but I think there's a little too much sentiment to elevate him to a pedestal he does not deserve just yet.
Injured Guys: Dynasty Ambulance Chasing
A cheap way to acquire talent is to target players who are hurt this year and on rosters of contenders who need players now. Here are prospects I'd acquire now or monitor in the spring.
Dwayne Allen: The Colts might be a "short passing" team under Pep Hamilton - although Andrew Luck's 7.29 yards per attempt is closer to the top-13 quarterbacks than most realize - but Coby Fleener is the No.23 fantasy tight end in premium PPR leagues. Allen's blocking, skill after the catch, and skill at adjusting to the football makes him a better fit in this power-running, short-passing offense. Once he's healthy, I expect him to provide TE1 upside and no worse than top-20 production at the position even with Fleener around.
Travis Kelce: The dreaded micofracture surgery will sideline the rookie for the rest of the year. However, Kelce has never had a major injury and his upside as an athlete is too great not to take a chance on the Chiefs' draft pick who Andy Reid compared in talent and style to a young Jeremy Shockey. Regardless of who the Chiefs add at wide receiver next year, I doubt Kansas City can add enough quality talent to limit the fantasy potential a tight end of Kelce's upside in this offense.
Dion Lewis: The Browns' new running back was having a strong camp before he got hurt. With Trent Richardson gone, Willis McGahee a desperation stopgap option, and Ben Tate a hope and a dream in free agency, Lewis still remains a viable 2014 option to acquire on the cheap. Lewis is physically comparable to Jacquizz Rodgers, but he has better vision, balance, and burst.
Marcus Lattimore: The risk is high, but the upside is equally strong. If you can play up the fact that Kendall Hunter looks good, Lamichael James flashes big play ability, and Frank Gore looks like he has another year in him, you might get someone to give up Lattimore. The runner from South Carolina is a lot like Gore in the sense that he doesn't need top-end speed to succeed as a pro. If you aren't likely to earn one of the top 7-8 picks and you need running back talent, targeting Lattimore might be a worthwhile pursuit.
Brian Hoyer: Did you watch him in Cleveland for those first two starts? His quick release, skill at maneuvering the pocket, and strong decision-making are all starting-caliber in terms of talent. I wouldn't be surprised if Cleveland continues to build at other positions through the draft and give Hoyer a true shot to compete for the starting job next year. I think the Patriots made a huge mistake to cut him loose.
They tried to trade him, but no team was interested in New England's asking price. I bet they would have bit on Ryan Mallett - a big, strong-armed, pressure-sensitive, mistake-prone, character risk - for a much higher asking price. Just saying, I'd rather have Hoyer. We'll find out in May if Cleveland comes to that realization, too. At this point, Hoyer is worth adding later this year as a dynasty stash.
Spencer Ware: I'd continue to keep an eye on this guy. He earned time at the end of the opener, which resulted in an ankle injury that may sideline him for at least half the season. However, the Seahawks cut Michael Robinson to keep Ware, who they favored as a Jason Snelling-like tweener with excellent receiving skills. It's doubly curious considering that Marshawn Lynch, Christine Michael, and Robert Turn are all signed through 2016, if not 2017. This staff values Ware for his talent and his price tag. Don't add him, but certainly monitor the state of this offense.
Mark Harrison: The Patriots wide receiver is on the physically unable to perform list. Pay attention to when he's scheduled to begin practicing and whether he earns any time on the field. Will the Patriots ask him to add weight and begin a tight end or will they use him as a potential Brandon Marshall-like receiver? He's a talent worth monitoring.
Greg Childs: A big-time long shot who will have to demonstrate he can remain healthy and regain his athleticism after tearing both patella tendons at the same time, including one knee with a second tear, Childs is still bears watching. The former Arkansas receiver was a fantastic prospect when healthy. In comparison to this year's rich class, I'd say that Childs at his best would have put him in the top-three. If Childs proves the exception to the rule, you're looking at a difference maker. Don't count on it, but do watch for it.
Austin Collie: Were the Patriots desperate or are they demonstrating some level of patience with the veteran slot option? I think a little bit of both. Collie at his best can deliver Wes Welker-like production in a more explosive and savvier package than Danny Amendola. Concussions and a patella tendon tear are issues, but not career-ending despite the increased sensitivity in the league to head injuries. As cheap as Collie is on the fantasy market, the receiver is worth a flier.
Dynasty Watch: Positive Vibes, On The Fence, and Losing Faith
At least a few times this year I'll share takes on players in dynasty leagues. After six weeks, here are players I think merit conversation about their value. No Keenan Allen here - he's so last week.
Positive Vibes
TE Jordan Reed, Washington: The most notable thing about Reed between the time he was at Florida and his rookie year in Washington is the difference in his physical appearance. Reed was little more than a big receiver last year, but oh was his athleticism tantalizing if he could make the transition to an NFL-caliber tight end. So far, Reed has shown a lot of progress. More than anything, Reed appears bigger and capable of handling some of the work along the line of scrimmage that will be required of him.
What hasn't changed is his agility and quickness as a ball carrier. Fred Davis was a former running back when he arrived at USC and Washington envisioned Davis as a play maker prior to his Achilles' tear. Even before the injury, Reed's athleticism trumps Davis'. Now that Reed has proven he can carry the extra weight effectively, he earns consideration as an enticing long-term prospect in dynasty leagues.
I'd have him in your top-15 at the position and considering him a prospect with top-10 upside. If the fit with the scheme and Robert Griffin's development takes a positive turn, Reed could have top-5 upside a few years from now.
WR Denarius Moore, Raiders: He looked like a stud in the making as a rookie. By the end of last year, he looked like an underachieving tease who couldn't stay healthy or avoid mental errors. The past three games? 15 catches, 274 yards, and 3 touchdowns with Terrelle Pryor.
While a lot of credit goes to Moore for continuing to work at his craft, the fact that opposing defenses must account for Pryor as a runner when the play breaks down presents a double-bind that Carson Palmer didn't have to offer. Opponents could rush Palmer and just hang with Moore as long as possible, knowing that Palmer would either run out of gas and get sacked or force the ball. I think Moore's upside is solid WR2 territory as long as Pryor stays healthy.
WR Kenbrell Thompkins, Patriots: All that I hear from writers and fans is that the Patriots rookies are dropping footballs. All that I see the past 2-3 weeks is Thompkins making big catches when the Patriots need them - including this weekend's game winner. There's a recurring theme in the season-script for this undrafted rookie: He follows up mistakes with big plays.
He worked his way into the starting rotation in training camp only to drop several balls during his first night scrimmage - on his birthday. The next day, national reporters say Thompkins looks like the best player on the field. Thompkins drops multiple passes against the Bills, but against the Jets he flashes the kind of game-changing acrobatics with a near-catch on a diving go route. He scores twice against the Buccaneers in the following game and then makes a key fourth-quarter reception against the Falcons in the middle of the field after contact.
Gronkowski's presence - if he deigns the Patriots with it this season - will open the field for Thompkins and Brady on easier deep routes. Danny Amendola can't stay healthy, Julilan Edelman isn't an outside receiver, and Aaron Dobson has issues I'll address a little later. Thompkins is a strong flex-play with long-term WR2-WR3 fantasy potential.
WR Terrence Williams, Cowboys: Chris Collinsworth told a national audience on Sunday Night Football that the Cowboys' rookie receiver was one of the most improved players he's seen between the beginning of the season through the present. Continuous improvement is a theme Williams established long before his rookie season. It's something I wrote about last year when evaluating him for the Rookie Scouting Portfolio.
Williams provides the Cowboys with depth and firepower as Jason Witten ages and Miles Austin continues to struggle with muscle issues. Williams' short-term value over the next 1-2 seasons depends on the Cowboys' decision with Austin's contract. As a dynasty owner, I'd invest in a receiver like Williams whose storyline is that of a fast learner with a work ethic.
WR Kenny Stills, Saints: What you need to know about Stills is that Drew Brees likes to target the rookie in the red zone. That's a sign of confidence in the young receiver. Moreover, Stills is beginning to make good on his opportunities when Brees delivers an accurate pass - something the quarterback failed to do multiple times against the Falcons last month.
Stills' touchdown reception behind Alfonso Dennard was a great demonstration of good hands technique on a 50/50 ball. Check out this photograph sequence and you'll see Stills doesn't use his hands to push off Dennard, but to maintain a position where he can keep his hands free and avoid entanglement with the defensive back. This was a veteran move by a rookie receiver.
Drew Brees probably has another 3-4 years in him and it means Stills has an opportunity to progress at a rapid rate. He's the only true deep perimeter threat on this team with good hands paired with one of the best deep ball throwers in the NFL. What's not to like?
TE Jeff Cumberland, Jets: The former Illini wide receiver can block and he's becoming a reliable target for Geno Smith. He's one of those players I wish I held onto four weeks ago. Hopefully you can get him as depth with upside in premium PPR leagues for tight ends.
RB Zac Stacy, Rams: Whether you call it due diligence or foolishness, the Rams have exhausted all of their running back options before giving the rookie a shot at playing time. Better late than never. Stacy has performed well in two straight games. He's a lot like Alfred Morris in the sense that he runs with good balance, he's patient, and he's quick enough to reach the second level. I think he's a little niftier than Morris, but not as strong. At this point I'm splitting hairs. He has a good chance to become a solid RB2 for the next 3-5 years for the Rams.
WR Marlon Brown, Ravens: Baltimore wasn't even sure Brown was going to play last weekend after an entire week of partial practices. Still, Brown had some key moments against the Packers and showed off some speed despite his leg injury. Speaking of injuries, Brown tore his ACL last November.
Undrafted free agent earns starting job for world champions coming off an ACL tear less than a year prior and is making reliable plays. Imagine what Brown will do if he stays healthy and regains some of the speed that made him a four-star prospect that Georgia thought was one of the best "gets" at the position they ever recruited?
On The Fence
TE Joseph Fauria, Lions: I love Fauria's ball skills in the red zone and on the perimeter as a fade route receiver. However, one of my more knowledgeable followers on Twitter raises a fine point about the Lions' rookie. Fauria has great height, but he has rather spindly legs for his size. Compared to a tall receiver like teammate Calvin Johnson, who had tree trunks, the long-term concern about Fauria is that he may never develop into an every down tight end along the lines of Jimmy Graham because he lacks the lower body strength to take the hits.
Considering the specialization of the tight end position in the NFL, I'd still target Fauria as a future red zone weapon in Detroit. He has a lot to offer this offense becuase of the red zone receiving prowess of Reggie Bush and Calvin Johnson. This trio allows Detroit to use a high-low game that forces a quandary for defenses to double one option or err its zone coverage to a side or depth that opens the field for one of these three players. The Saints do this with Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles/Pierre Thomas. I'm leaning towards the positive with Fauria, but only if Johnson and Bush are on the field consistently.
WR Jermaine Kearse, Seahawks: Every time I see Kearse make a catch it seems like a difficult play. He's one of the most improved young players I've seen. Russell Wilson trusts Kearse and I wonder if Sidney Rice might be expendable down the line. I want to see Kearse demonstrate skill in the middle of the field. If he can do this, I'm sold. Right now, he's worth a flier in deep leagues. I'm learning towards the positive.
WR Cole Beasley, Cowboys: I like the quickness and the confidence that the Cowboys have in this former SMU mighty mite. Could he be a productive slot receiver in Dallas? Only if the team ditches its more run-heavy desires - and with DeMarco Murray continuing to miss games each year, it's not out of the realm of possibility.
Still, Beasley is at best an option in four-receiver sets right now. He's a only a player to monitor. Until we see how the Cowboys' offensive personnel changes for 2014, Beasley is an option I'd add at season's end, but drop just as quickly if the personnel at wide receiver remains the same from 2013. I'm leaning towards the down side of the fence.
WR Marvin Jones, Bengals: You know I still like this guy. He's beginning to earn more looks in the offense and make good. If Andy Dalton could throw with better anticpation and accuracy that doesn't require a high degree of 50/50 prowess that A.J. Green and perhaps 10-12 receivers in the league can come close to matching, Jones would be a bigger name by now. He's a player I'm leaning on the upside.
RB Bilal Powell, Jets: Are you beginning to see why Powell has the skills to be a good starter in the NFL? He has sneaky-good vision with just enough power to beat defenses as the game progresses and he gets into a rhythm. The contrast between Powell and Chris Ivory this year is a good example of the importance of rapport between linemen and running back in addition to enough carries to get a feel for the game. Ivory looks like a reckless battering ram lacking nuance compared to Powell who is often subtle and surgical. I'm on the fence with Powell becuase Ivory is the better athlete and the Jets might decide Powell is at best a committee back long-term. However, I'm still leaning to the positive side because according to former Steelers' coach Bill Cowher, the Jets love the third-year runner.
RB Andre Ellington, Cardinals: I'm not sold on Ellington. I like the burst, the receiving skills, and the willingness to go inside. I also think the Cardinals offensive line has a long road to haul and I'm not convinced the rookie has C.J. Spiller-Chris Johnson pedigree to earn a gig as a lead back. Even if he does, it seems Bruce Arians is awfully stubborn about his way of doing things.
He's already ram-rodded Rob Housler into the offense when Andre Roberts has more to offer the passing game. What makes you think he'll veer away from Rashard Mendenhall if he's convinced Ellington is too small to be a lead back? Just as Mendenhall sticks to his spin move like its his Woobie, I think Arians has the same mentality about his scheme. Not good.
RB Khiry Robinson, Saints: For a rookie free agent, Robinson looks like a player capable of growing into a lead back. Pierre Thomas is 28, Darren Sproles is 30, and Robinson just rushed for 53 yards on 7 carries against the Patriots. He's averaging 5.3 yards per carry this season, too. Perhaps Robinson will never earn full-time looks in a Sean Payton offense, but considering how cheap he is don't get greedy.
TE Levine Toilolo, Falcons: I thought the Falcons might try to convert Toilolo to tackle when they drafted the Stanford prospect. However, Toilolo's physique looks trimmer and he appears more fluid than I remember. The Falcons may need to lean on Toilolo more this season as a part of two tight end sets. If this is the case, I recommend grabbing Toilolo as a roster stash now and see if he makes progress. He has decent hands and he's a good blocker. What concerns me is routes and skill catching the ball in traffic. If I had to lean in a direct on the fence, it would be towards the positive.
Feeling Down
WR Aaron Dobson, Patriots: The totals may belie my perception of the situation, but I haven't seen a receiver drop as many targets this year as Dobson. One of the issues is something I highlighted in the 2013 RSP - his hand position.
Dobson has a bad habit of not attacking the football in situations where he could do so. As a result, his hand position isn't in the optimal place and he allows targets into his body or to reach his hands in poor position. I watched Dobson wait on a crossing rotue where he should have attacked the ball with his palms down and arms extended. Instead, Dobson waited for the ball to arrive with his arms in cradle position and the ball ricocheted off his body.
Dobson may improve, but I've always through Thompkins was the better player. Don't be surprised if Dobson isn't a Patriot by 2015.
WR Danny Amendola, Patriots: He can't stay healthy.
WR Brian Quick, Rams: I like that the Rams are using him in the red zone, but he still doesn't earn enough time to prove he has gotten better as a route runner. I never had the patience for him but if you're someone who did, I have to think you're running out.
WR Nick Toon, Saints: Toon is a possession receiver, but I don't think he possesses the acumen or athleticism to develop into a replacement for Marques Colston. I wouldn't save a roster spot for him based on what I've seen thus far.
WR Rod Streater, Raiders: I like the athleticism and the hands, but I'm not losing patience with his development as a consistent player. I'm not giving up on him outright, but if the price is right, I'd sell him without regret.
WR Dexter McCluster, Chiefs: The flashes of skill are there, but the decision to use McCluster as a receiver doesn't give him the matchup advantages we see from Darren Sproles. And Sproles is simply a tougher runner. I still believe McCluster could offer more in the right situation, but the Chiefs seem risk-averse to use him as a running back hybrid. Plus, they don't need McCluster in that role with Jamaal Charles around. If McCluster finds his way to another team that actually uses him as a runner I'd reconsider, but I'm not holding my breath.
RB Chris Johnson, Titans: Too many games where he isn't playing consistent football.
RB Joseph Randle, Cowboys: He'll earn some chances in the next couple of weeks with DeMarco Murray out. When Randle gets some momentum downhill, he can finish with some toughness. However, I don't trust his vision and I'm not impressed with his all-around athleticism. I think Lance Dunbar is the better ball carrier and once Dunbar is healthy we might see why. I'd sell Randle high if he produces next week or the week after.
Fantasy HOroscope Week 7 - Jacquizz Rodgers
From "the monkey could do as good of a job of prognostication file", I bring you Fantasy Horoscope. Each week I'll pick player and have our secret astrologer provide me a horoscope for the player's prospects in this week's game. Take a deep breath or five, light some incense, and listen to Bloom On The Couch with his Rosicrucian Society.
Venus Sextile Uranus - Tighten Your Chinstrap And Get Your Moves Ready
Once in a while, the game moves too fast for you to adjust. This weekend against the Buccaneers is one of those times. The good news is that adjustments aren't part of the game plan - Tampa's defense won't be able to stop you. As soon as your line settles into a groove, you'll see green grass open before you. Relax and enjoy the ride as you burst, cut, and strut into the end zone. Make sure you get your end zone dance ready when you're front and center of the TV cameras.
Aries Lunar Eclipse Saturday Night - Victory on The Horizon
This eclipse rules transportation and communication. Audibles with Matt Ryan and the offensive line should go smoothly. Just make sure you're patient to the hole becuase Aries rules rash behavior. You could get a little too reckless. Make sure you're slow to the hole and fast through it. Once you get to the second level, keep the ball tight or you might end your jaunts with a fit of road rage on the bench.
Prediction: 12 carries, 56 yards on the ground, 4 catches, 50 yards receiving, 1 touchdown, and a fumble. Falcons win 21-17.