DraftKings Sunday Night Showdown, Week 2

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the Showdown decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Game Theory

The entire NFL world saw Caleb Williams faceplant in his NFL debut. Williams managed a minuscule 2.1 net yards per throw against the Titans, sending sports blogs into a frenzy. But that could create big Showdown opportunity tonight.

Yes, Williams looked bad enough that we should worry about his early-season upside. (That's even more concerning in the Showdown format.) He looked uncomfortable in the pocket and a bit panicked out of it. And it didn’t help that his world-class arm missed on several makeable throws. As a result, the general public, which had been breathlessly awaiting that debut, will likely overreact to what they saw. Expect depressed rostership for Williams and his weapons, all of whom underwhelmed in the opener, and a chance to zag away from the hyper-common Texans-heavy builds.

Injury Roundup

The Bears are bitten badly at wideout, where both Keenan Allen (heel) and Rome Odunze (knee) are expected to be game-time decisions. Allen’s injury appears a bit less serious, but his checkered injury history always gives pause. As for Odunze, it may seem shortsighted of the Bears to push their prized rookie in Week 2, but this Week 2 game happens to be massive (if only emotionally).

Texans backup RB Dameon Pierce (hamstring) also looks iffy tonight. There’s a good chance Cam Akers suits up as Joe Mixon’s lightly-used backup in his place.

Captain Consideration

1. C.J. Stroud
2. Joe Mixon
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3. Nico Collins
4. Tank Dell
5. D’Andre Swift

Chicago Bears

Quarterback

Caleb Williams (CPT or FLEX)

Williams struggled in all phases of his first NFL game. That said, his roster percentage in tonight’s Showdown should shrink accordingly. And this is the same Williams we salivated over for a year leading up to that game – powerful arm, dynamic mobility, gunslinger’s mentality. We saw glimpses of those traits against Tennessee, and it would be foolish to drive his value down too far. Williams could absolutely win this Showdown at just 10-15% of Captain rostership. The stacking possibilities are endless.

Running Back

D’Andre Swift (CPT or FLEX)

Swift didn’t knock any socks off in his Bears debut (30 yards, no receptions), but there’s ample reason for optimism. After all, he did dominate backfield snaps (70%) and touches (71%), and no other Bear came close. Game flow pushed the Bears away from the run; a more Swift-friendly script would’ve resulted in double the touches. Play him with confidence tonight, or even zig from the pack and Captain him – likely at a much lower Captain rate than Joe Mixon sees.

Wide Receiver

D.J. Moore (FLEX)
Rome Odunze (FLEX)
Keenan Allen (FLEX)

This dynamic-looking trio was quiet, to say the least, in the season opener. With Williams struggling to make plays or even sustain drives, the three combined to turn their 23 targets into all of 10 receptions for 76 scoreless yards. Now, the injury report complicates matters even further, with both Allen and Odunze up in the air.

In a vacuum, or in a cash game, that makes Moore a slam dunk. But this is Showdown, pure GPP play, where ball-dominant players go highly rostered and won’t provide much help. On such a small slate, fading Moore is the best way to stray from the pack. Moore is fantastic, but this entire offense may well be stuck in quicksand for a while. A 25% target share looks great on paper, but if there are only 150 yards to divvy up, he’ll torpedo a lot of Showdown entries. Last week’s 4.5 yards per target simply won’t do; the fading minority would benefit greatly from another egg.

If he suits up, Odunze looks like the strongest play. Moore and Allen boast name value, but both should land on far more rosters than the “underachieving” rookie. He’s not being eased in, after all, what with 77% of the Week 1 snaps. That’s attractive volume, and there are so many factors working against Odunze’s rostership that he could tilt a Showdown on his own.

Tight End

Cole Kmet (FLEX)

With so many new weapons on board, Kmet was an afterthought in Week 1. A year after catching 73 balls and 6 touchdowns, Kmet drew just a single target in the opener. It’s concerning that Gerald Everett won the snap battle 34-27 (and ran 10 more routes) as the preferred pass-down option. But there’s a talent gap between the two, and that could flip-flop quickly as this offense progresses. $7,500 is still a fair dice roll on that, and a great way to diversify.

Under the Radar

Gerald Everett (FLEX)

As the Bears’ Week 1 leader in TE snaps and targets, Everett may not qualify as “under the radar.” But the journeyman lacks Kmet’s name value and will likely come much less rostered.

Houston Texans

Quarterback

C.J. Stroud (CPT or FLEX)

In the Texans’ season opener, Stroud was the sharp, efficient passer we’ve come to know and love. His 234 yards were underwhelming, but can be largely explained by game script: Stroud dropped back just six times in the fourth quarter. That’s a risk here, too, with Houston currently sitting at -6.5 at home. But risk wins Showdowns, and Stroud boasts as much 300-yard, multi-touchdown potential as any NFL passer. And like Williams, he boasts Showdown-winning upside when stacked with any of a handful of Houston weapons.

Running Back

Joe Mixon (CPT or FLEX)

Well, that was about as strong a Texans debut as we could’ve hoped for. Mixon took on 57 of 79 snaps and shredded the Colts for 159 yards on 30 carries, with a touchdown. He ran hard, showed off his explosiveness, and proved he could carry the Houston offense when he needed to. That said, his roster rate will reflect that excitement. As the clear-cut home favorite, Mixon will be in most Showdown lineups tonight, and he’ll be Captain in many of them. If game flow isn’t quite as friendly – 21 of his Week 1 rushes came after halftime – he may disappoint altogether.

Wide Receiver

Nico Collins (CPT or FLEX)
Tank Dell (CPT or FLEX)
Stefon Diggs (FLEX)

Collins is a plug-and-play producer, regardless of matchup. Over his last nine full games, he’s drawn a 25% target share and averaged 7 catches for 104 yards (with 5 touchdowns). Furthermore, with three quality Houston wideouts in play, his roster numbers should stay in check.

Dell was a minor Week 1 disappointment, but his day could’ve been much bigger. His 22% target share will be just fine regardless of what Collins and Diggs do. PFF’s Nathan Jahnke charted Dell with 34 routes on 39 possible snaps, and points out that the Texans hardly touched their No. 4 and No. 5 wideouts. Dell is more than a mere slot specialist; his 14.3 aDOT as a rookie was higher than those of Chris Olave, DK Metcalf, and Amari Cooper. I’m expecting a healthy Showdown bounce-back, with 5-7 high-impact catches well within his range.

Diggs is the one I’m least interested in. Part of that is because I believe Diggs has looked a touch older and less explosive since early last season. It’s been 16 games since he’s produced a catch of 40+ yards – he’s the least dynamic of the trio. But mostly, it’s because I think his Week 1 red zone usage (three targets, two touchdowns) will overly inflate his rostership. It was nice to see, and it made me feel better about Diggs’ season-long outlook. Still, upside wins Showdowns, and it’s hard to find much in a 19% target share and 5.5 yards per target.

Tight End

Dalton Schultz (FLEX)

Schultz may present an opportunity to catch the market napping. Some saw Thursday that Schultz had yet to practice this week after spraining his ankle in the opener. Fewer saw that he practiced in full on Friday and now carries no injury tag. Last year, Schultz drew 14 targets in the red zone, second-most on the team and more than George Kittle, D.J. Moore, or Brandon Aiyuk.

Under the Radar

None – everyone looks streamlined and well-priced to me.

Kickers and Defenses

At a 45.5 total, Vegas expects some degree of scoring despite the Bears’ shaky Week 1. But that discombobulated offense may struggle to find the end zone, which would put the strong-legged Cairo Santos squarely in play. Santos has knocked home 91% of his field goals since 2020; he may well wind up shouldering the Bears’ offense tonight. He goes well stacked with a Texans-heavy lineup.

Those same concerns over the Bears offense put the Houston defense in play. The Texans pass rush isn’t much to write home about, but the opportunistic secondary can stymie Caleb Williams with its zones, and they’ll have no problem breaking on errant throws.

Player Chart