Thus far, we’ve seen preseason and training camp take down a handful of star players, in both the short term (LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson) and the long (Kelvin Benjamin). So, what would be the impact of a long-term Demaryius Thomas injury on the fantasy value of his teammates? Would the passing game shift untouched to his replacements? Or would Thomas’ absence be enough to morph the Broncos offense into one rooted in the run game? Let’s examine the key elements at play.
Buy
RB C.J. Anderson – It’s hard to imagine Anderson’s sky-high stock swelling even further, but a Thomas injury would pull it off. The Broncos, already looking to balance their offense in Manning’s twilight years, would likely funnel even more plays to Anderson (and to a lesser extent, his reserves). Down the 2014 stretch, with Manning struggling and playing through injury, the team shifted run-heavy, handing 27 rushes per game to its running backs while throwing just 33.7 passes. There’s little chance the team would trim its passing quite that much with all of its elements healthy. But the shift would almost certainly come if Thomas left the field for awhile. Already holding potential for 325+ touches, Anderson would cement himself as a serious candidate to lead the league under these circumstances. That’s volume you can believe in – especially when paired with the efficiency and touchdown upside Anderson showed late in 2014.
TEs Owen Daniels / Virgil Green – Tight ends have always been a fixture in Peyton Manning’s red zone script, so these guys enter the season with tangible fantasy value as it stands. But with Thomas off the field, both would become rosterable options, with the full-timer bringing TE1 value to the table. Daniels is a career-long disciple of new coach Gary Kubiak, likely brought on board to start and serve as the third or fourth option in the passing game. Exit Thomas, and Daniels claims a prominent role, especially in the red zone. Over his last 50 games, Daniels has been targeted 22 times from inside the 10, turning them into 10 touchdowns – numbers that could skyrocket catching balls from Manning in such a score-happy offense. Green is thoroughly untested, with just 23 catches through four seasons. But he brings an enticing frame and great athleticism; he’s likely to push Daniels for a handful of snaps between the 20s, and could prove a real threat near the goal line.
Hold
WR Emmanuel Sanders – It’s not as though Sanders’ fantasy value wouldn’t benefit from a Thomas injury. It’s just that, as with Latimer, the narrative would spin out of control. An ascension to #1 wideout status in this offense, with this quarterback, would send Sanders’ trade value into true WR1 asking prices. And it just doesn’t look like this offense is willing to stay so pass-dominant without Thomas, the lynchpin and only dominant talent among its pass catchers. Sanders would lead the team in targets, but he’s not the gamebreaking type PPR folk would appreciate the uptick in catches, but it’s hard to expect much dynamism; weekly lines of 6 catches for 65 yards would be commonplace, with limited touchdown potential. Not to mention that the passing pie would shrink noticeably smaller as the team veered even further toward the run. All told, Sanders would provide a helpful fantasy bump to his owners, but likely wouldn’t deserve the haul he’d likely command from trade partners.
WR Cody Latimer – Draftniks consider this a no-brainer; Latimer was a metric darling in last year’s class with film that bordered on the dominant. (He was the only receiver to show well against shutdown stud Darqueze Dennard in 2014.) There are concerns to his ultimate potential, though. Latimer tested as an elite athlete at his 2014 pro day, running a 4.44 40-yard dash at 6’2” and 215 pounds, but he doesn’t exhibit quite that speed in pads. He’s more of a physical target than a blazer, using his frame and leaping ability to win downfield battles. As a result, Latimer would make for an intriguing outside target in Thomas’ place. Given his makeup, it’s easy to see him making some of the dynamic plays Thomas routinely does.
That said, Latimer’s considerable hype would likely exceed his true capabilities. He wouldn’t approach Thomas’ volume, of course; Thomas is the league’s most targeted wideout, as much a fixture in the short and slant games as down the field. Latimer would likely serve in a more traditional role on the boundary, with roughly average usage for the position. Thomas has been targeted on 25% of Peyton Manning’s throws as a Bronco, while Latimer would be unlikely to crack around 18-20%. My projections for the Broncos offense would translate that to a solid if unspectacular 111 targets over 16 games. Consider Latimer an attractive fantasy WR3 without Thomas, though he’s not a textbook trade option. His high profile would likely price him well out of that range if Thomas were to go down.
Sell
QB Peyton Manning – As outlined above, the Broncos are, for various reasons, in the process of shaving Manning’s responsibilities. It makes sense; now 39, Manning has lost noticeable pass velocity and the last of his limited mobility. He remains Peyton Manning, of course, an absurdly talented, resilient, and commanding passer. But the loss of Thomas would severely ding his value. At this point, Manning needs his supporting cast more than ever, and Thomas is the team’s only proven dominator. Losing his mismatch ability would turn this into a less dynamic (and likely less voluminous) passing game.
Ultimately, with Thomas down, a fantasy owner would be prudent to at least gauge interest in Manning from around your league. There could be plenty if he and the non-Thomas receivers open the year red-hot. Cashing Manning in for a similar yet lower-profile option along the lines of Tony Romo could net you a nice throw-in from another owner.
Add
WR Jordan Taylor – The Broncos’ #3 wideout slot typically doesn’t offer huge statistical value – Wes Welker and Andre Caldwell combined to catch 51 balls for just 480 yards in the role last year – and that’s almost certain to continue in Kubiak’s offense. Taylor, a 6’4”, 209-pound undrafted rookie, has impressed Manning in camp, drawing raves for his leaping and high-pointing abilities. If he seizes most of the #4 job this offseason, he could flirt with occasional, matchup-based rosterability.
RBs Montee Ball / Ronnie Hillman / Juwan Thompson – Assuming the run game would increase in volume without Thomas, all backs would receive a noticeable fantasy boost. Anderson needs a backup, of course, to provide breathers and even take a series or two – the Broncos like to rotate their stable of backs. Whoever seizes the primary backup job would be worthy of keeping an eye on. Ball has been unspectacular and mistake-prone to date, but his second-round pedigree likely keeps him atop this competition. Hillman has been even less consistent and dependable than Ball, but has nice athleticism and posted a few RB2 lines when Ball went down last year. Thompson is a darkhorse to take this job, fresh off a 2014 that saw him average 5.0 yards over 54 rushes last year. He’s actually been the most dynamic and reliable among the three over the last two years.
Drop
None.