The click click click of anticipation on the roller coaster continues as the top of the first hill gets closer. The first few twists and dips from training camp/preseason injuries and changing situations are putting the wind in our hair and before you know, you’ll be screaming and maybe even puking just like old times.
While we wait for the tidal wave of new data to wash over us as training camps are open, we can take one last snapshot of what we think we know after staring at this picture for too long this offseason. Let’s look with the WRs:
THE WR1
Calvin Johnson, DET
There’s a small chance he’s wearing down prematurely because of the uncharacteristic amount of punishment he has received for a wide receiver. It’s much more likely that the soon-to-be-29-year-old will place the bar higher than he has before. Almost unreachable reception and yardage numbers are a given, and if the touchdowns reach the teens, he’ll be an unfair advantage for his owners.
ELITE WR1
Demaryius Thomas, DEN
Dez Bryant, DAL
Julio Jones, ATL
Elite talents in outstanding situations. I’m ready to put Jones here after an uneventful, setback-free open to training camp. That being said, I’m not drafting these guys that frequently because I believe players that can be close to their level are available into the fourth round. Paying a premium for WR production only makes sense if it can be as far away from the pack as Calvin Johnson has been. This trio has the potential, so they could be profitable first rounders yet.
STRONG WR1
AJ Green, CIN
Brandon Marshall, CHI
Jordy Nelson, GB
Alshon Jeffery, CHI
Any of this group could finish in the top five, but they don’t quite have the ceiling of the elite group. Still, there is much less of a gap between them and first-round WRs as there is between second-round RBs and their first-round counterparts.
HIGH WEEKLY FLOOR LOW/MID WR1/STRONG WR2
Antonio Brown, PIT
Randall Cobb, GB
Victor Cruz, NYG
Pierre Garcon, WAS
Roddy White, ATL
Andre Johnson, HOU
Larry Fitzgerald, ARI
A high volume of targets and terrific bedrock talent makes this group of receivers just a little less attractive than the Strong WR1 group. Cruz stands out as the glaring value in the late third/early fourth range. He can put up a year like Brown’s 2013 if Eli Manning and the new offense are functional. You can count on one of Cruz, White, Johnson, Garcon, and Fitzgerald leaking through the fourth round in most drafts. That’s low-hanging fruit in PPR drafts.
HIGH WEEKLY CEILING LOW/MID WR1/STRONG WR2
DeSean Jackson, WAS
Vincent Jackson, TB
Keenan Allen, SD
Michael Floyd, ARI
Cordarrelle Patterson, MIN
Percy Harvin, SEA
Emmanuel Sanders, DEN
Torrey Smith, BAL
This group resides mostly in the 4th/5th range, with Sanders sometimes being available in the seventh. They could have equal season-end numbers to the high weekly floor options, and they are all very attractive WR3s because the assumption is that the WR1/WR2 ahead of them will be very stable producers. I love seeing DeSean Jackson in the fifth most of the time. Any member of this group could flirt with WR1 production this year, and all should have hot streaks when they produce at that level for the better part of a month or more.
STRONG WR2 WITH QUESTIONS
Michael Crabtree, SF
Marques Colston, NO
Wes Welker, DEN
Julian Edelman, NE
Dwayne Bowe, KC
In theory, all of the members of this group (except maybe Bowe, who I am perhaps unreasonably high on after he came on at the end of 2013) can produce on a par with a lot of the names above them. I just have reservations about Welker and Colston’s health/decline(?), the other mouths to feed in San Francisco around Crabtree and New England around Edelman, and Kansas City’s potential to be an underwhelming pass offense again this year. I’m looking for members of this group if they fall to seventh round - although Bowe is often there a round or two later.
STRONG WR3/FLEX
Mike Wallace, MIA
TY Hilton, IND
Kendall Wright, TEN
Eric Decker, NYJ
Reggie Wayne, IND
Wide receiver is deep enough that primary targets in middling passing games and very good receivers that play with Andrew Luck are available in the 6th-8th round range. Wayne’s excellent start to camp puts him in the group with the potential to be the best of the bunch.
UPSIDE BENCH PLAYS
Kelvin Benjamin, CAR
Sammy Watkins, BUF
Terrance Williams, DAL
Justin Hunter, TEN
Danny Amendola, NE
Kenny Stills, NO
Mike Evans, TB
DeAndre Hopkins, HOU
You don’t want to count on anyone from this group to open the season if you can help it, but ascendant youth and talent (or the return of health for Amendola) could propel any of them to strong 2014 campaigns. This is the group that could yield our Gordon/Jeffery this year.
HIGH FLOOR BENCH DEPTH
Anquan Boldin, SF
Hakeem Nicks, IND
Jeremy Maclin, PHI
Greg Jennings, MIN
Cecil Shorts, JAX (INJURY RISK)
There are some fine talents on this list, and Nicks and Maclin have unknown ceilings if they can regain form from recent injuries, but they (along with Boldin) are also sharing with strong groups of passcatchers. Shorts is already a big injury risk and Jennings was a rough ride last year despite no real decline even though some believed it happened. At a 10th round later price, this group is good to dip into if you feel like you have a lot of risk on your roster at WR.
BOOM/BUST BENCH DEPTH
Riley Cooper, PHI
Golden Tate, DET
Marvin Jones, CIN
Markus Wheaton, PIT
Jarrett Boykin, GB
Brandin Cooks, NO
I could see a breakout or three from this group, and each of them will give us a handful of big weeks. That you can add them in the double digit rounds is a punctuation mark on how deep WR is. Anyone in this group could level off at everyweek WR3/Flex and WR2 level production is not out of the question.
SPECULATIVE BENCH PLAYS
Tavon Austin, STL
Cody Latimer, DEN
Jordan Matthews, PHI
Rueben Randle, NYG
Andrew Hawkins, CLE
Doug Baldwin, SEA
Robert Woods, BUF
Latimer is my favorite here because of the potency of the Denver pass game and early raving reviews in camp. Randle is probably a lot higher on most lists, but I see him as a purely speculative play right now because of how choppy his first two years have gone. Baldwin and Woods seem to have chemistry with their young QBs. Hawkins might surprise and has the air of a player about to up his game significantly. Austin is a total wild card and Matthews is also probably higher on most lists. It’s just hard to be excited about any Eagle wideout at ADP with six quality targets in a mid-to-low volume passing game.
LOW CEILING BENCH DEPTH
James Jones, OAK
Brian Hartline, MIA
Malcom Floyd, SD
These guys are all accomplished and could even finish in the top 30-35 receivers, but they offer relatively low ceilings and are probably not that much different than the top wide receiver on the waiver wire in any given week.
LOTTERY TICKETS
Kenny Britt, STL
Marquess Wilson, CHI
Andre Holmes, OAK
Rod Streater, OAK
Odell Beckham, NYG
Marqise Lee, JAX
There’s lots of talent here and a breakout from this group is possible. Lee and Britt’s situations aren’t great, Wilson needs an injury in front of him, as does Holmes, who could get it with Rod Streater already on the concussion list. I do like this group as late picks in leagues that will have lean waivers wires early because of long benches, but if you take them in short bench leagues, they will be early drop candidates.
WAIVER WIRE WATCH LIST
FOR OLD TIMES SAKE
Steve Smith, BAL
Miles Austin, CLE
Jerricho Cotchery, CAR
This trio was relevant in the past, and they could go on a nostalgic run of quality weeks with starting roles likely in their future.
SPECULATIVE PLAYS
John Brown, ARI
Davante Adams, GB
Marlon Brown, BAL
Allen Robinson, JAX
These young talents are unlikely to have enough early-season appeal to be drafted in typical leagues, but they could become priority waiver pickups immediately if they do start hot.
SITUATIONS TO MONITOR
Aaron Dobson,Brandon LaFell, Josh Boyce, Kenbrell Thompkins, NE
Paul Richardson Jr, Jermaine Kearse, SEA
Da’Rick Rogers, Donte Moncrief, IND
Jeremy Ross, DET
Tavarres King, CAR
These talents are mostly on the upslope of their careers, and they either play with good passing quarterbacks or in situations that could yield increased opportunity.
YOU NEVER KNOW
Chris Givens, STL
Denarius Moore, OAK
Mike Williams, BUF
At previous points in this group’s careers, we’ve thought that they were entering the realm of fantasy relevance. All had nosedives in value in 2013. We have to keep our minds open to re-emergence in 2014 if the signs are there.
WR HANDCUFFS
Harry Douglas, ATL
Andre Roberts, WAS
Andre Caldwell, DEN
Cole Beasley, DAL
Any of this group could inherit volume in a quality passing game if a receiver in front of them goes down.
I’LL BELIEVE IT WHEN I SEE IT
Stephen Hill, NYJ
Brian Quick, STL
Stranger things have happened