Dynasty Trade Value Chart: January

Dan Hindery analyzes long-term player values for dynasty leagues

Dan Hindery's Dynasty Trade Value Chart: January Dan Hindery Published 01/06/2025

© Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The end of the 2024 fantasy football season offers the perfect opportunity for a clean slate. With the calendar flipping to 2025, it’s time for me to rebuild dynasty trade values from scratch. This isn’t the usual in-season process of gradual adjustments; instead, I’m wiping the slate clean—a blank cell next to each player’s name in my trade value spreadsheet, free from the weight of prior rankings.

As Wayne Gretzky said, the key to success is to “skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.” That mindset is crucial as we begin to evaluate 2025 dynasty trade values. With the 2024 regular season wrapping up just last night, this is the perfect time to take a step back and start laying the groundwork for the offseason. At this early stage, a major part of the process is anticipating how average draft position (ADP) might shake out for 2025 redraft leagues; as we know, ADP will heavily influence dynasty values in the months ahead. Last week, Dave Kluge wrote a fantastic article looking at this topic:

2025 Fantasy Football Draft Rankings (Way Too Early)

I also made some early 2025 redraft rankings, which I will link to in this Google sheet. The process of thinking through where I would actually draft players if on the clock in a 2025 redraft league was incredibly beneficial to help me start fresh with new 2025 dynasty values. 

In this month's article, the positional trade value charts will include not only each player’s dynasty trade value but also key context: their age at the start of the 2025 season and their projected 2025 redraft value based upon expected ADP. Along the way, I’ll highlight players at each position who might be undervalued based on this early analysis and explain how these projections fit into the bigger picture of building strong dynasty rosters.

Above all, this time of year is about establishing a solid process. Success in dynasty fantasy football isn’t just about reacting to changes as they happen; it’s about anticipating them and staying one step ahead. By evaluating where redraft values are likely to land and how they’ll influence dynasty leagues, we can begin building a strategy for success in 2025 and beyond.

Finally, we’ll begin to turn our attention to 2025 rookie drafts. While I’ll save the deep dive into specific rookie values for next month, this article will set the table for how I want to cover the 2025 NFL Draft over the next few months and preview some of the things I hope to write about in the coming months when it comes to valuing rookie players and picks. 

Please note in all tables below:

  • Age (2025) refers to the players age next September, when the 2025 season starts. 
  • Redraft is an early estimate of the player's PPG above replacement value at his position for 2025.
  • Value is the player's dynasty trade value.
  • SF Value is for quarterbacks only and is the player's dynasty trade value in a Superflex league.
  • For player values beyond the top players listed at each position, please use the full dynasty trade value chart tool (found in the Tools menu above). The values in the tool are updated on a weekly basis.

Quarterback

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Jared Goff, Detroit

Age and timelines are critical factors in dynasty football, and it’s important to remember that quarterback longevity operates on a completely different timeline compared to other positions. Most good quarterbacks remain starters well into their mid-to-late 30s, and Goff’s performance over the past three years in Detroit has solidified that he’s more than capable of fitting this mold.

From this perspective, Goff is a player we can confidently project as a starting quarterback for at least the next five to seven years. His longevity is just as secure as that of more "exciting" younger quarterbacks from recent draft classes. For example, if you were betting on who is more likely to still be a starter in 2030—Goff or Caleb Williams—Goff might actually be the slightly safer choice.

While younger quarterbacks may offer more long-term upside in terms of future trade values, it’s easy to become overly focused on potential instead of appreciating a proven, reliable option right in front of us. Goff is that reliable option, and his current price in many leagues makes him a fantastic value.

Dak Prescott, Dallas

Now is a prime buy-low window for Dak Prescott. While he might not be the flashiest option, he’s a steady, proven quarterback whose value has dipped to an attractive level. Yes, injuries have been a factor—he’s missed time in two of the last four seasons—and he’ll be entering his age-32 season in 2025. However, like Goff, Prescott has shown enough talent to give us confidence that he’ll remain a starter for the foreseeable future.

In Superflex leagues, Prescott is an incredible value as a cheap QB2 option who can anchor your roster for the next several years. Although he may not have the same long-term upside as younger quarterbacks, his proven track record and affordable price make him a dependable asset worth targeting in trades and 2025 startups.

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Running Back

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Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis

Don’t overlook what Taylor accomplished in his final three games of the season—an astounding 173.3 rushing yards and 2.0 touchdowns per game. If he’s available as a second-round redraft pick next season, he could be one of the best values on the board. There are striking parallels between 2025 Jonathan Taylor and 2024 Saquon Barkley.

Both Taylor and Barkley proved early in their careers that they have elite fantasy upside and the talent to be cornerstone NFL players. Both endured stretches of injury-plagued seasons that dampened their production and caused them to fall out of the conversation as top dynasty assets by the time they reached age 26. Barkley silenced the doubters in 2024 with a dominant comeback season that sent his dynasty trade value soaring. Taylor has the same opportunity to remind everyone just how special he is.

Currently ranked as the RB8 in industry consensus (even before factoring in incoming rookies), Taylor is undervalued. In 2025 startup drafts, he’s likely to fall to the fourth round—a massive discount for a player with his ceiling. At these prices, I’m buying Taylor wherever I can.

Chase Brown, Cincinnati

Brown showcased his potential as a true lead back for Cincinnati, playing at least 80% of the snaps in all eight games where he held that role. His production during that stretch was nothing short of remarkable, with a full-season pace equivalent to 1,975 total yards, 81 receptions, and 12 touchdowns. These are elite numbers that highlight his ability to handle a significant workload and produce at a high level.

Looking ahead, Brown will likely face more competition for touches next season. This could come in the form of Zack Moss, depending on whether the Bengals decide to keep him ($5.0M cap hit with $1.5M dead money if cut) or a mid-round rookie addition to the backfield. Despite this, all signs point to Brown having established himself as the clear leader in the Bengals’ backfield. Plus, the Bengals have quite a few much bigger holes to fill with their limited resources than backup running back, which makes a high-profile addition at the position extremely unlikely. While some will downplay Brown’s value moving forward by pointing to the fact he was in a timeshare before the Moss injury, my read on this backfield had been that the Bengals were hoping Brown would emerge as a go-to option. It would have happened to some extent, no matter what happened with Moss. Projecting Brown as a 70%+ snap player with a significant role moving forward is reasonable. Brown’s impressive performance makes him a strong candidate for a second or early third-round pick in 2025 redraft leagues, and his dynasty value should reflect his potential as a high-volume, high-production back.

Wide Receiver

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Last offseason, I made my lone podcast appearance on the Footballguys Dynasty Show with Jeff Bell and Jagger May, where I highlighted Tee Higgins and Ladd McConkey as underrated sixth-round startup targets. They were not the only wideouts in the sixth or seventh rounds who caught my interest. I joked on the show that I wished I could build my entire dynasty wide receiver roster out of sixth- and seventh-round picks, much like the old joke about making an airplane entirely out of black box material. I bring this up now because 2025 is shaping up similarly. While the top-tier wide receivers in the first two rounds are undeniably appealing, the fifth to seventh rounds look like the sweet spot for value. Based on early consensus rankings, I’ll be targeting this range heavily. My strategy will involve trading down in startups to stockpile picks in this area, and in established leagues, I’ll be actively attempting to acquire wideouts valued in this range.

The appeal isn’t limited to rookies, though there will undoubtedly be strong options from another solid rookie class. Young, proven players like Xavier Worthy, Chris Olave, Jameson Williams, Jordan Addison, and Zay Flowers will all likely go off the board in this range. I love each of these players at their current valuations. They’re all locked into WR1 or WR2 roles, have flashed significant upside, and are 24 or younger. Players with this profile maintain their dynasty value well, even if they experience slightly disappointing seasons. More importantly, they have the potential to ascend rapidly and deliver elite returns.

Last year, the 50th to 75th overall range in dynasty startups was a goldmine for wide receivers, with players like Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Brian Thomas Jr. joining Higgins and McConkey as excellent values. I see 2025 setting up in much the same way. By focusing on this range, you can build a wide receiver corps that offers both upside and stability, positioning your team for long-term success.

Tight End

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George Kittle, San Francisco

I have been vocal about feeling Travis Kelce was overvalued each of the past two offseasons due to his age. I would feel similarly about George Kittle heading into 2025 if he was being valued anywhere near where Kelce was at the same age. Instead, Kittle is being valued as an 8th- or 9th-round pick in 2025 Superflex startups. I think he is a tremendous value in this range. Very few tight ends give you a major weekly advantage. Kittle is one of them. Plus, his skill set and the type of competitor he is should age very well. I would not be surprised if he has some of the biggest seasons of his career in his early 30s, the same way Kelce did. Kittle’s 1,106 yards and eight touchdowns in 2024 were each the second-best marks of his career. I won’t be surprised if he surpasses those numbers in 2025.

Trey McBride, Arizona

It may take some time for the dynasty community to fully recognize just how impressive Trey McBride was during the stretch run of the 2024 season. Over his final seven games, McBride hauled in an incredible 62 passes for 594 yards and two touchdowns. For context, that projects to a jaw-dropping 17-game pace of 151 receptions, 1,443 yards, and five touchdowns. Wow.

McBride’s dynasty trade value took a hit after the drafting of Marvin Harrison Jr., as many assumed Harrison’s presence would siphon away too many targets and limit McBride’s upside. Instead, the opposite proved true—McBride thrived, and now it’s fair to wonder if Harrison might end up playing in McBride’s shadow. While there’s still a sizable gap between McBride and TE1 Brock Bowers, there’s an equally large gap between McBride and the rest of the tight end field.

Follow the Draft

When it comes to dynasty rookie drafts, there’s a strong argument to be made that success doesn’t require immersing yourself in the NFL Draft process. In fact, with just two key pieces of information—draft capital and position—you can likely draft effectively. Draft capital reflects not only a player’s physical skills but also the exhaustive analysis NFL teams conduct, often informed by the same advanced metrics we, as fantasy managers, use. The NFL also has access to character and injury information the public never learns about. This means you should take any analytical measures claiming to outperform draft capital when it comes to the actual NFL value of players with a grain of salt. Those backward-looking measures have already been accounted for by NFL teams. Today's price is not yesterday's price and all that. 

But if you do just wait until after the NFL Draft and draft by the numbers, you risk missing out on what makes dynasty fantasy football truly special. Drafting isn’t just about optimizing value; it’s about engaging with the sport on a deeper level. The joy of dynasty lies in the process—getting to know the prospects, forming opinions on their skills and personalities, and imagining their potential in the NFL. Deep down, we all believe we can out-draft our favorite NFL GM, and this is our chance to prove it. Footballguys will again produce a rookie guide. Please check it out. Matt Waldman will put out another monster Rookie Scouting Portfolio. If you are on the fence, my recommendation is to get it.

Yes, putting heavy weight on player-agnostic values based on draft capital and position is the foundation of drafting well. It will be a major focus of my content efforts over the next few months because this is where my strengths lie. But what separates good dynasty players from great ones is the ability to adjust those baseline values using your own judgment of each player’s unique attributes and how each player fits with their new team. Whether it’s their skill set, personality, or ultimate NFL upside, your personal evaluation is where the fun and challenge of dynasty football come alive.

Dynasty football isn’t just about results; it’s about the journey. It’s about embracing the stories, the process, and the chance to play GM in your own league. In the lead-up to the NFL Draft, dive in and learn as much as your time allows about these players. Not only will it make you a better drafter, but it will also make your future wins all the more rewarding. 

For now, I will leave you with a link to an early version of my Rookie Pick Calculator. I hope to have something much more robust available in the near future.

 

Photos provided by Imagn Images
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