NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

The advice in this article pertains predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Showdown Game Theory

Showdown contests are unlike any other in DFS. The limited player pool and extremely top-heavy payout structure place a strong emphasis on creating unique rosters that stand out from the masses. Novice Showdown players often build lineups designed to score the most points, but when these lineups succeed, they frequently tie with 20+ other players due to duplication. As a result, the payout for their "win" is significantly reduced because it's split among all those with the same lineup.

Given how rare it is to finish atop a Showdown tournament, it's crucial to maximize your share of the prize when you do win. Duplicate lineups are your enemy, so your goal should be to create unique lineups as often as possible. How can you approach building differentiated lineups? There are several strategies:

• • Avoid obvious correlations: For example, instead of pairing a quarterback with a running back from the same team, consider more unconventional combinations. You might also choose to roster an opposing team's defense, even if you're stacking offensive players from the other side.

  • Defy Vegas predictions: Going against what oddsmakers project is a great way to avoid redundant lineups. If Vegas expects a high-scoring game, but you believe it could be lower-scoring, consider rostering team defenses and kickers instead of more expensive skill position players.

  • Leave salary on the table: The simplest way to create unique rosters is by not using your full $50K salary cap. Most players struggle to leave $3K to $6K unused, but in my experience, this strategy still produces winning lineups while offering the differentiation needed to claim the top prize for yourself.

Injury Roundup

The big news heading into Thursday night's game is that Raheem Mostert will be sidelined due to a chest injury suffered on Sunday against the Jaguars. Mostert's absence might normally provide De'Von Achane with a prime opportunity to take over as Miami's lead running back. However, Achane is listed as a game-time decision due to an ankle injury, making Jeff Wilson Jr. an intriguing pivot play at a bargain price.

While arguably less significant, it's worth noting that Bills cornerback Taron Johnson will miss the game with a forearm injury, which could further boost the appeal of Miami's already enticing receiving corps.

Captain Considerations

1. Tyreek Hill
2. Josh Allen
3. Tua Tagovailoa
4. Jeff Wilson Jr.
5. Jaylen Waddle
6. James Cook

Tipandpick's Conviction Plays

1. Jeff Wilson Jr.
2. Keon Coleman
3. Josh Allen

Buffalo Showdown Players

Quarterback

Josh Allen (CPT or FLEX)

After posting 32 DK points and appearing in most winning lineups last week, Josh Allen is likely to be the most popular player in Showdown lineups on Sunday night. He was outstanding in his season debut, with both passing and rushing touchdowns against Arizona. With similar upside in this matchup, Allen should make your final cut, as missing a 25+ point player in Showdown contests rarely leads to success.

Running Backs

James Cook (CPT or FLEX)

Because Josh Allen scored two rushing touchdowns last week, James Cook had a disappointing fantasy day despite accumulating 22 touches in Buffalo's win over the Cardinals. Few NFL running backs see that kind of volume, and Cook is the only one likely to secure 20 touches in this contest. Projected at 5-10% ownership in the Captain spot, Cook presents a strong contrarian option with multi-touchdown upside to anchor your rosters.

Wide Receivers

Khalil Shakir (FLEX)
Keon Coleman (FLEX)
Mack Hollins (FLEX)

Of Allen's three wide receivers, Khalil Shakir is the most expensive, despite playing the fewest snaps in Week 1. Shakir was expected to be the Bills' WR1, but rookie Keon Coleman looked the part last Sunday. However, Shakir has multiple touchdown upside, and with projected Captain usage below 5%, he's worth considering at his modest price. Coleman will likely be the highest-rostered Bills receiver, and for good reason: he played 73% of snaps, caught four passes, and showcased impressive red zone potential. At $5.8K, he's tough to leave out of lineups that need correlation with Allen.

Mack Hollins, along with Jeff Wilson Jr., will be a popular value play after scoring in his Bills debut. Hollins, now on his fifth team in six years, benefits from playing with his most talented quarterback yet. At $1.6K, he's a reasonable option, but be mindful of his high ownership.

Tight Ends

Dalton Kincaid (FLEX)

Dalton Kincaid played more offensive snaps than any Bill besides Josh Allen in Week 1. Don't overthink Kincaid's paltry two targets last Sunday; Allen was highly efficient, attempting just 23 passes all game. Kincaid is poised for a bounce-back as the season progresses, and a two-touchdown game is always within reach, given Allen's tendency to target tight ends in the red zone.

Under the Radar

Dawson Knox (FLEX)

After playing just 17 snaps in last week's game, Curtis Samuel can be safely ignored for now. He's the sixth option in the receiving corps but is priced as if he's still with Washington. Instead, consider Dawson Knox as a low-owned sleeper. Despite Dalton Kincaid's rise, Knox played nearly 60% of snaps last Sunday and built a strong rapport with Josh Allen over the past five years. At $2.6K and likely low ownership, he's a strong tournament play for Thursday.

Miami Showdown Players

Quarterback

Tua Tagovailoa (CPT or FLEX)

Fresh off a 300-yard passing performance in Week #1, Tua Tagovailoa will be popular on this Showdown slate as a stacking option with Tyreek Hill and/or Jaylen Waddle. Tagovailoa comes at a discount to Josh Allen because he does not possess the running upside that Allen brings to the table. But Tagovailoa's receivers are superior, which could easily result in another big performance on Thursday. 

Running Backs

De'Von Achane (FLEX)
Jeff Wilson Jr. (CPT or FLEX)

With Mostert sitting out, Jeff Wilson Jr. is set to handle early-down work for Miami. Wilson is a reliable and often underrated backup with past success in similar roles. At $2.4K, his expected workload makes him a must-play in all lineups, with sneaky Captain potential due to the strength of the lineups one can build with his salary savings. Meanwhile, De'Von Achane, likely to play, should retain passing-down duties unless his ankle flares up in-game. If Achane is inactive, however, rookie Jaylen Wright becomes a great value option, allowing you to capture Miami's entire backfield for under $5K.

Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill (CPT or FLEX)
Jaylen Waddle (CPT or FLEX)

Tyreek Hill is always one play away from being essential in winning DFS lineups, as he reminded us last week with an 80-yard touchdown in the 3rd quarter. His fantasy merit is unquestioned, and with the overt value offered by Jeff Wilson Jr.'s role, Hill will likely be the highest-rostered player on the slate. Note: If you roster both Hill and Wilson, make sure to differentiate elsewhere, as their pairing will be heavily used by the masses. Jaylen Waddle is one of my favorite contrarian plays—he posted an efficient 5/109/0 last week and could benefit if the Bills focus on containing Hill.

Tight End

The Dolphins' tight ends are uninspiring. Durham Smythe is primarily a blocking tight end who occasionally catches a pass but lacks any yards-after-catch upside. He may attract attention in DFS due to leading Miami's tight ends in snaps last week, but I see this as more of an anomaly than a trend moving forward. My thoughts on Jonnu Smith as a potential option are outlined below.

Under the Radar

Braxton Berrios (FLEX)
Jonnu Smith (FLEX)

With Malik Washington set to miss another game, Braxton Berrios is expected to serve as WR3 and could see several targets from Tagovailoa on Thursday night. Berrios only needs to catch a couple of passes to justify his $1.8K salary, which is quite possible if Tua throws 40 times. Additionally, Jonnu Smith, who signed a $10M contract with the Dolphins this spring after a career year in Atlanta, is a sneaky, low-owned play. While Durham Smythe out-targeted him last week, Smith offers solid upside for Thursday's contests.

Kickers and Defenses

Both kickers are strong options in a game projected to score nearly 50 points. On Monday Night Football, San Francisco's kicker Jake Moody scored 26 points, appearing on all winning rosters. Here, Jason Sanders and Tyler Bass are solid, salary-saving choices. While both ranked near the bottom in accuracy last year, Sanders has the stronger leg, making him my preferred option, especially with Raheem Mostert sidelined.

Team defenses are harder to recommend, given the high-scoring projection and presence of two top-tier quarterbacks, limiting the likelihood of defensive touchdowns.

Player Chart