Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, and Aaron Jones were all free agent values in 2024. Are there players in this class who are strong bets to deliver fantasy starter value?
Welcome to Week 16 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- Fantasy vs. Reality II
- 2025 Free Agent Running Backs (see below)
- Most Shocking Fantasy Developments of 2024
- Dynasty Quarterback Value Check
Let's roll.
2025 RB Free Agent Class
Matt Waldman: Here's a list of free agents with enough youth and success as a starter for at least a stint of games that a team might think has a year or two of value for their backfield.
- Aaron Jones
- Najee Harris
- AJ Dillon
- Nick Chubb
- Javonte Williams
- Jordan Mason
- J.K. Dobbins
- Rico Dowdle
- Jaylen Warren
- Khalil Herbert
Answer these three questions with these running backs in mind.
- If landing spot wasn't a factor, which player has the highest one-year upside?
- If landing spot wasn't a factor, which player has the highest three-year upside?
- Give one player and a (realistic) potential landing spot where he'd be a great fantasy fit.
Go.
Highest 1-Year Upside
Ryan Weisse: After his 2024 performance, it's hard to argue against Aaron Jones having the highest one-year upside. He's already performed well in two different offenses, so landing spot shouldn't affect him at all.
He's a top-15 running back this season, and it's just his touchdowns that keep him out of the top 10. Jones is ninth in rushing yards and tenth in receptions among running backs. He's going to get valuable touches no matter where he plays next season.
Sean Settle: If landing spot is not a factor, then Aaron Jones is the highest upside player from the list above. He is 23 yards away from another 1,000-yard season and, despite being on the wrong side of 30, still has juice left in his legs.
The injury concerns for J.K. Dobbins and Nick Chubb make them too volatile. The rest of the list has either underperformed or not had enough snaps to compete with the success of Jones.
The other big advantage of Jones is his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield and find the end zone with multiple 10-touchdown seasons. If utilized effectively and in the right situation, Jones would be the most productive back from above.
Corey Spala: Aaron Jones would have the highest one-year upside among the group. He has proven his ability to be utilized with a full workload. I am not concerned that he will turn 31 next December.
He has averaged 18.6 opportunities per game through 14 games this season and earned 15.35 carries and 3.28 targets per game. Having the ability to be utilized in the passing game on top of the run game is the emphasis. Jones has 50% of his games with at least three receptions and 43% of games with at least four.
Phil Alexander: Aaron Jones is five years removed from his best fantasy season and will turn 31 in 2025, but he has the highest ceiling of this group for at least one more year. His first season in Minnesota exceeded my expectations.
Jones needs just 21 yards next week to record his fourth 1,000-yard rushing season, and the advanced metrics indicate he's still got plenty of juice in his legs. He ranks seventh among qualifying running backs with 744 yards after contact and 12th with 23 carries of 10-plus yards.
Outside of Nick Chubb, whose recovery from a serious knee injury is now complicated by a broken foot, every other running back on this list has way more to prove than Jones.
Joseph Haggan: Aaron Jones has the biggest one-year upside. Through 14 games this season, he has 1,301 total yards and 7 touchdowns. He is averaging just under five yards per carry and has looked every bit of energetic as I can remember.
He has carried a full-time role this season, barely being spelled by Ty Chandler and Cam Akers. Jones's every-down ability still holds valuable high upside for a running back-needy team. There may not be much more left in the tank for an every-down role after one season.