Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, and Aaron Jones were all free agent values in 2024. Are there players in this class who are strong bets to deliver fantasy starter value?
Welcome to Week 16 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- Fantasy vs. Reality II
- 2025 Free Agent Running Backs (see below)
- Most Shocking Fantasy Developments of 2024
- Dynasty Quarterback Value Check
Let's roll.
2025 RB Free Agent Class
Matt Waldman: Here's a list of free agents with enough youth and success as a starter for at least a stint of games that a team might think has a year or two of value for their backfield.
- Aaron Jones
- Najee Harris
- AJ Dillon
- Nick Chubb
- Javonte Williams
- Jordan Mason
- J.K. Dobbins
- Rico Dowdle
- Jaylen Warren
- Khalil Herbert
Answer these three questions with these running backs in mind.
- If landing spot wasn't a factor, which player has the highest one-year upside?
- If landing spot wasn't a factor, which player has the highest three-year upside?
- Give one player and a (realistic) potential landing spot where he'd be a great fantasy fit.
Go.
Highest 1-Year Upside
Ryan Weisse: After his 2024 performance, it's hard to argue against Aaron Jones having the highest one-year upside. He's already performed well in two different offenses, so landing spot shouldn't affect him at all.
He's a top-15 running back this season, and it's just his touchdowns that keep him out of the top 10. Jones is ninth in rushing yards and tenth in receptions among running backs. He's going to get valuable touches no matter where he plays next season.
Sean Settle: If landing spot is not a factor, then Aaron Jones is the highest upside player from the list above. He is 23 yards away from another 1,000-yard season and, despite being on the wrong side of 30, still has juice left in his legs.
The injury concerns for J.K. Dobbins and Nick Chubb make them too volatile. The rest of the list has either underperformed or not had enough snaps to compete with the success of Jones.
The other big advantage of Jones is his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield and find the end zone with multiple 10-touchdown seasons. If utilized effectively and in the right situation, Jones would be the most productive back from above.
Corey Spala: Aaron Jones would have the highest one-year upside among the group. He has proven his ability to be utilized with a full workload. I am not concerned that he will turn 31 next December.
He has averaged 18.6 opportunities per game through 14 games this season and earned 15.35 carries and 3.28 targets per game. Having the ability to be utilized in the passing game on top of the run game is the emphasis. Jones has 50% of his games with at least three receptions and 43% of games with at least four.
Phil Alexander: Aaron Jones is five years removed from his best fantasy season and will turn 31 in 2025, but he has the highest ceiling of this group for at least one more year. His first season in Minnesota exceeded my expectations.
Jones needs just 21 yards next week to record his fourth 1,000-yard rushing season, and the advanced metrics indicate he's still got plenty of juice in his legs. He ranks seventh among qualifying running backs with 744 yards after contact and 12th with 23 carries of 10-plus yards.
Outside of Nick Chubb, whose recovery from a serious knee injury is now complicated by a broken foot, every other running back on this list has way more to prove than Jones.
Joseph Haggan: Aaron Jones has the biggest one-year upside. Through 14 games this season, he has 1,301 total yards and 7 touchdowns. He is averaging just under five yards per carry and has looked every bit of energetic as I can remember.
He has carried a full-time role this season, barely being spelled by Ty Chandler and Cam Akers. Jones's every-down ability still holds valuable high upside for a running back-needy team. There may not be much more left in the tank for an every-down role after one season.
Highest 3-Year Upside
Weisse: Najee Harris will only be 27 next season and has proven top-10 upside. While he was an effective receiver in his rookie season, the Steelers have moved away from using him in that role. I know we were asked not to consider landing spots, but anywhere outside of Pittsburgh could bring receptions back into Harris' repertoire and make him a much more valuable fantasy asset with at least three more years of effectiveness.
Haggan: J.K. Dobbins still has my heart. The injury he sustained this year was not significant, and he has shown why he has always been a coveted back. He has 4.8 yards per carry on the season and averaged over 3 receptions per game.
His ability to find the end zone may be his biggest allure. He had 8 touchdowns in his 11 games this year. In his only other season with over 10 games played, he delivered 9 touchdowns in 15 games. That was as a rookie.
Dobbins owns a robust 5.4 yards per carry for his career and is just 26 years old with less mileage -- though with more injuries than most backs his age. If he can return and show no lingering effects from the MCL, a team will give him a contract in the offseason with the intent of starting him.
Alexander: Jaylen Warren has the highest three-year upside of this bunch. In 2023, Warren proved he could be one of the league's most efficient runners and a premier pass-catcher out of the backfield.
A late-preseason hamstring injury spoiled the encore, but over the back half of this season, Warren has looked more like the player who finished sixth in team target share among running backs, ninth in yards per route run, and led the league in evaded tackles per touch in 2023.
While workload and landing spot correlate, Warren doesn't need the most fertile offensive environment to reach his ceiling. He only needs a backfield (mostly) to himself.
Spala: Najee Harris would have the highest three-year upside. The landing spot was noted to not be a factor; however, injuries were not. Harris has been healthy throughout his NFL career and has yet to miss a single game.
He will turn 27 before next season and offer a three-year window to utilize his skillset. Harris had 94 targets in his rookie season, and then Jaylen Warren was drafted, which helped relieve his workload. Harris (129 targets) and Warren (142) are utilized almost equally in the passing game.
Harris (756) has significantly out-carried Warren (317) since the 2022 season, and Warren has only missed three games. I like Harris's skill set, durability, consistent production, and the potential for an increased workload.
Settle: Rico Dowdle should be getting a good look from every team in the NFL that needs a running back. He has performed well in what has been a very poor Dallas offense. Teams have stacked the box early in games with Cooper Rush not effectively throwing the ball and then used more of a prevent-defensive scheme when Dallas has been down.
Dowdle has still managed to rush for 100+ yards in each game since Thanksgiving and is great with the ball in space. Dowdle is young and has some of the freshest legs on this list. At just 26 years old, Dowdle's best three years of football are ahead of him.
Best Potential Player-Team Fantasy Fit
Settle: Jaylen Warren has the explosiveness to succeed on a team that spreads things out and throws the ball more. If it were not for Chase Brown, Warren would be a great addition to Cincinnati. However, with that destination out, Warren would be a great addition to Minnesota if Aaron Jones decides to leave after this year.
Warren provides the same burst out of the backfield and superior speed in the open field with the benefit of being five years younger and cheaper overall. The Vikings will need more cost-effective pieces as they try to keep the core of this offense together and build out a better defensive secondary. Warren has all the skills needed to be an effective lead-back for the Vikings.
Weisse: Denver has an up-and-coming offense, and adding Nick Chubb could free Bo Nix up to do all sorts of interesting things. Chubb must get healthy, but a broken foot should be an easier recovery than a destroyed knee.
While 2024 was a down year, Chubb is a career five-yards-per-carry runner. If he can get back to 4.5 yards per carry, he will be a far better back than Javonte Williams has been in this Denver offense. Chubb in Denver could follow the path of Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, and Aaron Jones this season. The change of scenery should give him a top-10 upside next season.
Alexander: I'd love to see Warren in Kansas City. Samaje Perine is good enough at what he does, but Warren can bring some explosiveness (and fantasy points) back to the Jerick McKinnon role in Andy Reid's offense.
While Warren wouldn't relegate Isiah Pacheco to the bench, we now have proof Pacheco's hyper-physical running style lends itself to serious injuries. In any games Pacheco misses in this theoretical, Warren would land in the weekly RB1 conversation as a member of the Chiefs.
Spala: Najee Harris signing with Las Vegas would be an intriguing situation. Las Vegas is currently the 31st overall team in total team rushing attempts. They will need a competent run game for the assumed rookie quarterback they will draft and have started for the 2025 season.
I noted Harris as the running back who offers the highest three-year upside, specifically his durability, as he has yet to miss a single game in his career. We have Las Vegas ranked 17th overall in the offensive line, notably 22nd in run blocking.
There is room for improvement with the continued development of their young talent. Harris would provide a competent run game for the perceived rookie quarterback and offer pass-catching ability with check-downs.
Haggan: Rico Dowdle re-signing with Dallas would be ideal for him. Dowdle has averaged 5.73 yards per carry and 119.5 rushing yards during the last four games since the Cowboys started feeding him. Dowdle will be a cheaper option for the Cowboys, knows the system, and has thrived as of late.
The Cowboys need cheaper options with their large star contracts. Dowdle could be one that could have a huge role in this offense.
Waldman: Thanks for reading. Check out the links below for all of this week's roundtable topics:
- Fantasy vs. Reality II
- 2025 Free Agent Running Backs
- Most Shocking Fantasy Developments of 2024
- Dynasty Quarterback Value Check
Good luck!
