The playoffs are here. Most of the film study is done. Even if you needed me to tell you that Sam Darnold looks like a league winner there's little most playoff teams without him can do about it.
Instead, let's look back with the intent of looking ahead: 10 Surprises in 2024.
These players exceeded expectations -- sometimes lofty expectations -- and delivered value for rosters. This week, let's explore why they surprised us and how they might build on their emergence in 2025.
No Cliff's Notes are necessary.
1. WR Jauan Jennings, 49ers
When I first laid eyes on Jennings' game at Tennessee, I saw shades of Brandon Marshall. Jennings was physical, aggressive, and fearless attacking the ball, carrying the ball, and away from the ball.
Jennings played a game suited for a receiver who weighed 218-225 pounds. When he showed up at Mobile, Alabama for the Senior Bowl at 208 pounds, it was a disappointing revelation because, without the top speed, Jennings' physicality wasn't likely to translate to the NFL on the level of Marshall or A.J. Brown when that light.
Four years later, Jennings has grown into one of the most reliable contributors to the 49ers' high-powered offense. The 20th-ranked PPR option heading into Monday night, Jennings has become an excellent zone receiver who can win the difficult plays over the middle and at the boundary.
Brock Purdy buying time and putting himself in a position to either throw the ball away or find the WR working to the open zone. Jauan Jennings works open. pic.twitter.com/y86H2VNfIz
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 13, 2024
Are we back at Tennessee?
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 23, 2024
Jauan Jennings… pic.twitter.com/ADPVMI3OUl
Can Jennings build on this production? Theoretically, yes. He has Brock Purdy's trust and he fits well in the 49ers' offense.
Jennings doesn't have to be the primary option to be a great fit. His route running and physicality make him capable of exploiting weaknesses in coverage designed to stop George Kittle, Deebo Samuel Sr., Brandon Aiyuk, or any speedy receiver with an outside game that poses an immediate and constant threat.
Jennings has another year with the 49ers. If the 49ers don't take an out in the contract, so does Samuel. Aiyuk may not be back to his pre-injury form for at least half of the 2025 season. Ricky Pearsall or Jacob Cowing could pose threats to Jennings' role, but for now, Jennings is the best bet to deliver as the third or fourth option in the 49ers' passing game.
That may not sound enticing for fantasy GMs but as long as Jennings is viewed as a late-round option in 2025, there's a good chance he'll outplay his value because of his fit in the offense, the trust Purdy has in him, and the likelihood Aiyuk isn't back to form early in the year.
2024 may be Jennings' career year, but it doesn't mean you won't derive significant value in 2025.
2. TE Jonnu Smith, Dolphins
I'd bet most analysts who had a strong ranking of Smith didn't have a compelling reason to regard Smith as the priority target ahead of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. As shocking as it has been to see Smith as TE4 in PPR formats heading into Week 16, the 2023 season showed how this reality could unfold.
As Arthur Smith's TE2 in Atlanta, Jonnu earned at least 9.5 points in 5 games in 2023 as Kyle Pitts' co-pilot. Why is 9.5 points significant? It's approximately the baseline for starter production last year and this year.
Smith has always been a good runner after the catch. He can make you miss or run through defenders.
If Johnnu Smith continues emerging, he offers more YAC upside than D Walker and that’s saying something. #Titans pic.twitter.com/3KxMLgU6as
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 12, 2018
Jonnu Smith North-South vs the blitz pic.twitter.com/a61s9i3Bhk
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 6, 2023
Where he struggled was the catch-point. At FIU, Alfredo Brown's old stomping grounds, Smith made big plays but his hands weren't as elite as his athletic ability. Smith isn't the downfield vertical option with the contested catch ability of a primary receiver, but get him in space or on the move, and he's productive.
Miami recognized the opportunity and they leveraged Smith's skills for a career year. Can Smith build on this in 2025? Yes, there are conditions.
Mike McDaniels and his offense cannot leave Miami. If it does, Smith may not fit the new system. If Hill and Waddle return to form in 2025, then this year will have been Smith's career year.
Like Jauan Jennings, Smith is capable of delivering strong weeks in the future. I'll be surprised if it's the primary plan again in 2025. Unlike Jennings, there will be more expectations for Smith in the fantasy community and there's a risk he's overvalued next year.
3. RB Chuba Hubbard, Panthers
Last month, the Panthers generated some consternation among football media when they signed Hubbard to an extension when their first-round pick, Jonathon Brooks, was poised to return to the field after tearing his ACL at Texas. Fast-forward to the present and Brooks has a second ACL tear in nearly 12 months.
Hubbard earned his money as the most productive offensive skill option in Carolina this year. A speedster out of Oklahoma State who entered the league as a player prone to "all gas, no brakes" as a decision-maker, Hubbard had work to do.
What's difficult to know about a young man with athletic talent is whether he'll do the work. To Hubbard's credit, he has.
After Week 1 of 2023, it was obvious on film that Hubbard had become the superior back to free-agent prize Miles Sanders. I was never a big fan of Sanders as a decision-maker or his ball security, but it was still a sign of Hubbard's impressive growth.
Chuba Hubbard with a mature, tight-crease run. pic.twitter.com/odm3XkFvLn
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 12, 2023
Hubbard only built on last year's success and has delivered a career year. With Jonathan Brooks' career as a starter a significant question mark, Hubbard is poised to continue his reign as the Panthers' lead runner in an offense that has found stability at quarterback.
Hubbard will be worth his draft capital in 2025.
4. WR Malik Nabers, Giants
Nabers was the rookie I wanted early in my fantasy draft plans this year. This is the quick version of what I said about him as a target in Rounds 1-4 in August.
"...Nabers is versatile, refined, and acrobatic. Yes, even with Daniel Jones."
The most bullet-proof wide receivers are multidimensional. Nabers was the best route runner in this excellent class. He can play multiple wide receiver spots. He wins the ball against tight coverage, and he's difficult to contain after the catch.
Nabers offered everything you want from a wide receiver. It's not about how big or how fast -- the baseline athletic ability and physical traits to perform as a No.1 option on an NFL team are there. Once you know that, the skills become more important than the athletic ability. Getting granular with how much Nabers had as an athlete versus another receiver is a failure of prioritization.
This happens too often. It happened with A.J. Brown in Tennessee and Justin Jefferson in Minnesota.
Sure, they're good athletes, but their quarterback situation and/or their role in the offense won't earn enough support for significant fantasy production.
I told my RSP Post-Draft readers each time that these two receivers had a much better opportunity to deliver top rookie production at the position than credited among the football media. Why? Like Nabers, Brown and Jefferson could play multiple roles, win the ball against tight coverage, earn yards after the catch, and run great routes.
The more of those things a receiver can do from that list, the higher the odds that the quality of a quarterback isn't as significant of a factor. The Rome Odunze Corollary to that rule is when the offense has multiple veteran starters and poor offensive play-calling and design, which the Chicago Bears had for most of the season.
Although Nabers didn't surprise me as the producer most in the fantasy world thought Marvin Harrison Jr. would be, Nabers is sustaining top-10 production at his position with Tommy DeVito and Tim Boyle in the mix.
As the Giants figure out a few things, expect Nabers to have a top-five ceiling. Until, then, a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 is still excellent, given the circumstances.
5. RB Tyrone Tracy Jr., Giants
PPR's RB19 since Week 8, Tracy has surprised me with his decision-making maturity.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. with an excellent run.
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 29, 2024
Looks like a big crease. It is a big crease. But watch how Tracy manipulates the safety at the last moment before hitting that crease. #Giants pic.twitter.com/yjkS0F3TXV
Tyrone Tracy Jr. with another good press--this time on Duo--to set up a 27-yard run.#NYGiants pic.twitter.com/Lnjom6F7LI
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 8, 2024
Tracy reminded me of Kenyan Drake when watching his film at Purdue -- a physical talent, but a remedial decision-maker who would need ramp-up time on par with Chuba Hubbard before he became an impact player. I thought the training camp buzz was a false positive like Tank Bigsby's in 2023.
Not so. Tracy has proven a quick study at the position. There's a strong chance he sustains fantasy RB2 value in 2025 and potentially builds on it with another good offseason.
6. WR Rashod Bateman, Ravens
I'm thrilled to list Bateman here. The Reverse-Blooming worked!
A big-play weapon with contested-catch skills and excellent yards-after-the-catch prowess, Baltimore doubled down with a new contract for Bateman last offseason. After 14 games, Bateman is WR23 in standard formats and WR36 in PPR.
Quantitatively, Bateman's rates of production during his second season with Todd Monken aren't significantly higher on a per-game basis than what we saw during his second season under Greg Roman in 2022. Qualitatively, there are some differences.
Lamar Jackson's deep game is adequate, at best. Targeting Bateman with a heavy dosage of vertical routes at the boundary, hitches, and slants didn't exploit all of the young receiver's strengths.
Bateman's strengths in college included the post, intermediate and deep over routes, and deep digs. Greg Roman had players for that role. With Marquise Brown gone and Todd Monken replacing Roman, Bateman is earning more of these middle-of-the-field routes where he and Jackson thrive.
#RavensFlock QB Lamar Jackson with another third-down conversion to Rashod Bateman.
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 10, 2024
Very patient play from the pocket. Aware of the defense and the time/space he needed to make the play.
2xMVP pic.twitter.com/KGc0dDgARt
Jackson is good at the boundary on timing routes inside 20 yards and Bateman has the route skills to thrive.
Bateman has stacked 29 appearances during the past two seasons compared to 18 during his first two seasons. If he can stay healthy, expect this 25-year-old receiver -- with already 4 years in the league -- to continue building a stronger fantasy resume.
7. WR Ladd McConkey, Chargers
I was all-in on McConkey since June. I knew Greg Roman's offense and understood that the lead receiver for the scheme is usually the slot receiver. McConkey would primarily operate from the slot, and he demonstrated a veteran's understanding of the position that thrilled Justin Herbert.
I projected McConkey could earn upwards of 130-150 targets, 90-110 catches, 1,000-1,200 yards, and 3-5 scores.
At his current pace, McConkey is on track for 108 targets, 78 catches, 1,074 yards, and 6 scores -- 221.4 fantasy points in PPR. Even if McConkey were healthy enough to play the Chiefs in Week 14, we'd be looking at 115 targets, 83 catches, 1,141 yards, and 7 scores.
The forecasted receptions are close to expectation, and the yardage and scoring are on track to be as projected, if not greater. Why? Because McConkey can also win selected vertical routes often reserved for bigger options. This was where I was surprised to see Justin Herbert trust McConkey this early.
Ladd McConkey teaching tape for Quentin Johnston on how to execute a jump up and through attack on an underthrown ball #Boltup pic.twitter.com/4uSuJtDQaE
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 18, 2024
Where I thought McConkey would surprise: His ability to be on the same page as Herbert with coverage, especially in the compressed areas of the field.
Ladd McConkey has been impressive in compressed areas to make adjustments for his QB. #BoltUp pic.twitter.com/WJkZ96TG5o
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 28, 2024
Where Ladd McConkey and Justin Herbert already have rapport. #Boltup pic.twitter.com/OEkLBN0kFL
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 30, 2024
McConkey is unlikely to earn top-10 fantasy status at his position this year. At the same time, I told you Malik Nabers would be worth an early-round pick, Marvin Harrison Jr. wouldn't, and McConkey would have a shot at top-10 value at his position at a discount.
Surprise...if you get the Rookie Scouting Portfolio? Not really. You can order now at a slight discount through December 21st.
McConkey should only build on his rookie year in this offense. With his rapport and big-play ability with selected targets, look for McConkey's touchdown totals to threaten or slightly exceed double digits -- 8-12 scores per season over the next 5-7 years sounds right.
Michael Crabtree had four seasons with 8-9 touchdowns, and his best season was an 85-catch, 1,105-yard, 9-score campaign with Roman in San Francisco. That's McConkey's role but with a better quarterback.
8. RB Rico Dowdle, Cowboys
Don't look now, but Dowdle is threatening to earn starter production when judging running backs by the year, overall. The RB24 in PPR formats heading into Monday night, Dowdle has been RB18 since Week 8, averaging 5.4 yards per carry.
Yards per carry isn't usually a good statistic. In this case, there is something that is telling. Of the backs with at least 80 carries since Week 8, Dowdle has the fifth-highest average.
- Bucky Irving - 5.9
- Saquon Barkley - 5.8
- Jahmyr Gibbs - 5.6
- James Cook - 5.5
- Rico Dowdle - 5.4
Of these five backs, Barkley and Dowdle are the only two with over 100 carries during this span. Dowdle also missed Week 8, which would have placed him near or ahead of Barkley. These two are legitimate workhorses between the tackles.
As Adam Harstad has noted, yards per carry is usually a function of how explosive a runner is and how many opportunities an offensive line gives that runner to exert his breakaway ability. Here are the longest runs in each game for these players since Week 8.
- Bucky Irving (15, 8, 14, Bye, 56, 43, 2, 54)
- Saquon Barkley (19, 21, 11, 39, 72, 25, 18, 22)
- Jahmyr Gibbs (70, 18, 20, 23, 17, 28, 20, 13)
- James Cook (18, 13, 20, 6, Bye, 65, 8, 41)
- Rico Dowdle (DNP, 15, 19, 9, 9, 22, 27, 12)
Of these five leaders in yards per carry since Week 8, Dowdle only has two long plays of more than 20 yards. Irving and Cook have three, and Gibbs and Barkley have five.
Dowdle is the only back who hasn't busted a run of at least 30 yards. Fifty percent of Dowdle's long gains during this span comprise the 12 lowest totals on the list. Only one of his carries is among the top 12 long gains.
This indicates that Dowdle is playing at a high level on a down-to-down basis despite working with an offense that has suffered many injuries.
As Bob Harris pointed out on our Monday Podcast, Dowdle is the first UDFA to earn three consecutive 100-yard rushing games since Arian Foster. There's reason to downplay that figure. When considering the most generous run defenses to fantasy running backs, the Panthers (1), Bengals (15), and Giants (6) are mediocre to awful.
Still, the other factors mentioned above are compelling counterarguments favoring Dowdle. Does it mean Dowdle will take his game to another level in 2025?
Considering the wealth of talent available in the NFL Draft and free agency, it's possible the Cowboys won't even re-sign Dowdle.
Aaron Jones, Najee Harris, Nick Chubb, A.J. Dillon, Javonte Williams, JK Dobbins, Jaylen Warren, Jordan Mason, and Khalil Herbert offer teams compelling options. You may not like some of the names on the list, but they all have talents that teams will consider.
If Dowdle earns a compelling deal for a team suited for his talents as a runner and receiver in a scheme with an RB-friendly coach, he could surprise. I'd consider Dowdle a "hold," for dynasty rosters -- much like I considered him as such on the cheap for the four years prior.
I don't think anyone is rushing out to pay the premium. Still, that time could come with the right landing spot.
9. QB Bo Nix, Broncos
I'm not surprised Nix showed enough to survive his rookie year as a starter. I thought he, Caleb Williams, and Michael Penix Jr., had the best skillsets to weather the storm of playing on bad teams.
I had Nix as my No.3 pre-draft quarterback in the class behind Williams and Penix. Daniels was my QB4 with the potential to develop into a good starter. Since Week 8 -- the time we begin to see opposing defenses apply adjustments to gameplans for rookie passers -- five fantasy points separate the two. Daniels is QB10 and Nix is QB12.
What's shocking about Nix this year is his willingness to get in Sean Payton's face and come out the other side. It may not be shocking to his current and former teammates, but Nix hasn't found the game intimidating in any way -- at least not in a way that carries over to his performance for multiple weeks.
This may seem like a woo-woo narrative, but a vital facet of good quarterback play is rebounding from mistakes. Young quarterbacks are prone to falling into emotional quicksand -- allowing a mistake to overwhelm them and then compounding them.
Nix may make multiple mistakes, but he's fighting through them. This week, Nix threw a career-high three interceptions by the early third quarter while down 13-7, but he kept his composure and also delivered all three of his touchdowns in the fourth quarter, taking and then sealing the game.
Nix is doing this with a young team on offense -- many of the skill players may not be long-term starters for this team. He's a good bet to keep him valued as a low-end QB1 or high-end QB2.
10. QB Sam Darnold, Vikings
If you asked most six months ago, they'd tell you Darnold was a bridge starter for rookie J.J. McCarthy. If the Vikings don't re-sign Darnold, that may prove to be the case. There are a lot of teams that will consider Darnold if Minnesota lets the veteran walk.
Cleveland's ownership loved Darnold. The Saints might be tired of Derek Carr. Could the Jets do a mea culpa? Probably not. Still, Darnold has options.
As I get older, I imagine one of the underrated difficulties of being a good football player is balancing the team and individual business elements of the game. From a team perspective, Darnold's best choice is Minnesota.
He has one of the best trios of receivers in the league and a pressure defense that can get the ball back to the offense in short order. As a quarterback, this is a team in a position to build on its success.
Considering how bad Darnold has been until now, it could be worth taking a discount to stay with the team that helped him remake his image. His play might convince the Vikings to trade McCarthy and it could earn him a bigger deal later.
Of course, it might be worth it to take the big money now and risk the consequences of being found out. As well as Darnold has played, the bad Darnold -- the erratic decision-maker who misses pre-snap tells and has streaky accuracy -- still comes to the surface on film and that could get exacerbated on a bad team.
Justin Jefferson is one of the 2-3 best receivers in football. Jordan Addison is a great zone receiver and among the best No.2 options a team can have. T.J. Hockenson is still an elite option, too.
Wherever he goes, the drop in talent at these three positions combined will be immense. Maybe he goes elsewhere and proves that he's more than his surrounding talent. I believe that's possible, I'm skeptical just how much more he truly is.
I would err on the side of 2024 being Darnold's career year -- by far.
Good luck!
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