The Top 10: Week 13

The Top 10 features Matt Waldman's film-driven analysis to help GMs manage their fantasy squads.

Matt Waldman's The Top 10: Week 13 Matt Waldman Published 11/25/2024

© Bob Donnan-Imagn Images the

The Top 10: The Cliff's Notes

  1. Bryce Young not only looked like he did at Alabama but also like he did at Mater Dei and that's good. 
  2. Jaylen Waddle returned to fantasy prominence we haven't seen since Week 1. 
  3. Can you count on Caleb Williams? As mentioned last week, yes you can. Here's how it played out. 
  4. The Cleveland Browns' offensive line isn't good, but Nick Chubb still is. 
  5. Ashton Jeanty is considered the top RB of the 2025 NFL Draft class. Matt shares his thoughts. 
  6. Could Ohio State RB Quinshon Judkins be in the same tier as Jeanty come April? 
  7. Kansas State RB D.J. Giddens is a good example of the depth of this 2025 RB class.
  8. Ole Miss WR Tre Harris is a big-play option. Can he become an impact rookie? 
  9. TCU WR Savion Williams is one of the most intriguing pass-catchers in the 2025 class. 
  10. Looking for a sleeper WR? UCF's Kobe Hudson could be that guy. 

1. Bryce Young Took the Chiefs to the Limit

When Bryce Young returned from his early-season benching, his anticipation, accuracy, and work in and outside the pocket looked a lot more like what we saw from him at Alabama. Against the three-time champion Chiefs, Young not only looked like he did at Alabama but there were also plays where he looked as dynamic as I remember seeing him at Mater DHigh. 

As comfortable and confident as high school? Yes. If Young hasn't slammed the door shut on the idea of him being an epic draft-day bust, he has managed to kick the door open and walk into the light since he returned to the Panthers' lineup. 

Young made pre-snap adjustments to viable run plays. Young foiled Steve Spagnolo's blitzes. Young also displayed the confidence and accuracy to make elite throws. 

If that wasn't enough, Young made clutch throws and put the Panthers in position to win the game. 

Even the Panthers' defense woke up at the end of this game, sacking Patrick Mahomes II twice on third and longs to stifle Chiefs drives and this helped Young tie the game. Of course, earning a win would have been excellent, but Young's career as an NFL starter is very much alive. 

His career as a fantasy starter is coming around the corner, especially when you consider Young is working with surrounding skill talent that may not be starting for this team in 1-2 years. Young brought the Panthers back in the second half without Ja'Tavion Sanders (neck), a geriatric Adam Thielen, an inconsistent rookie in Xavier Legette, and a journeyman reserve in David Moore (who looked like a legitimate starter today). 

Five weeks ago you couldn't trade Bryce Young away. Now? You're probably glad you couldn't. 

2. Jaylen Waddle Fantasy Sighting

Jaylen Waddle has been absent from the fantasy scene for so long this year that I forgot his first name when I began posting videos of his performance against the Patriots on Sunday afternoon. 

Waddle's last fantasy-worthy game was a 100-yard Week 1 effort. This week, Waddle demonstrated his range as a pass catcher, explosion as a runner, and his potential to eventually become the primary option for the Dolphins. 

Waddle is what the Dolphins thought they were getting from Ted Ginn well over a decade ago. The difference is Waddle's route running and technique at the catch point. 

Jonnu Smith has been one of the top two yardage-getters in the passing game for 7 of Miami's 11 contests. It could stay that way, which means Waddle and Hill could be alternating for that No.1 spot in any given week. Whoever loses might also fail to earn fantasy value. 

Waddle is one of my favorite dented can options in dynasty leagues heading into 2025. Re-draft GMs may still have to ride the rollercoaster. 

3. Yes, You Can Count on Caleb Williams

This is what I shared with readers in last week's Gut Check: 

  • Thomas Brown has simplified the offense to get Williams into a rhythm with short passes. 
  • DJ Moore is benefitting from short throws to minimize his route lapses and maximize his legs. 
  • The short passing game is reducing the impact of pressure on Williams in the pocket. 
  • A less embattled Williams is completing more big-play passes. 
  • The Bears' schedule of remaining defenses isn't as difficult as the cumulative data suggests. 
  • I projected at minimum, a rise in Williams' fantasy points per game from 13.7 to between 17.6 to 18 -- a startable value.
  • If you throw in a 2.4 points per game increase from my bump in his touchdown rate, that average rises to 20 points per game--knocking on the door of top-five production at the position. 

Williams was 32-for-47 for 340 yards and 2 touchdowns through the air and 6 attempts for 33 yards on the ground. That's 28 fantasy points if you don't count yardage bonuses 300-yard games often earn in fantasy leagues. 

In consecutive weeks under Brown's adjustments to the offense, Williams has looked more like the player Chicago saw on tape at USC. The arm talent, pocket play, and creativity were all on display. 

Williams rocketed targets into tight windows and dropped the ball into buckets on vertical shots. 

Williams and his teammates also made errors that could have been the difference in this game and an even bigger output for the rookie quarterback. 

Overall, Williams looks much better in this revamped Bears' offense. As mentioned last week, Williams is getting more passing volume, a chance to get into a rhythm, plays that utilize his receiver's talents more appropriately, and less pressure. Expect the fantasy renaissance to continue despite the schedule. 

4. Nick Chubb's Still Got It. His OL Doesn't.

Germaine Ifedi is a reserve-level player at left tackle. Guards Joel Bitonio and Wyatt Teller aren't playing to their past standards. It has me wondering if center Ethan Pocic's skills with line calls and communication are part of the problem. 

Whatever the root issue is, this line has been mistake-prone, and they have underperformed at the point of attack when running the ball. Even so, Nick Chubb has still got it. His box score stats may indicate the opposite, but the film says otherwise. 

Chubb's balance, change of direction, strength, and initial burst are all strong enough for him to deliver fantasy-starter play. The line isn't creating big enough opportunities to maximize Chubb's talents. See Saquon Barkley-Giants, 2018-2023. 

Hold Chubb in dynasty leagues and consider him a potential value in re-draft next year. 

5. Thoughts on 2025 NFL Draft RB Ashton Jeanty

As most of you know, I'm the creator of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio (the RSP) pre-draft publication. Entering its 20th season of publication, I'll be opening an early-bird window for 2-3 weeks in December for those who want to pre-order RSP at a slight discount. 

For those who refuse to purchase until that window ends so you can pay the full price, I'll let you know when you can begin doing that in late December or early January.

With Thanksgiving approaching and the Bowl season around the corner, the next five segments of this week's Top 10 will be devoted to draft prospects, beginning with one of the most exciting rookie prospects in this class, Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty. 

If you believe the graphics and the buzz machine, Jeanty is the next coming of Barry Sanders. While I don't usually share my rankings until April, I will say that Jeanty is atop my RB board at this point of the year.

I have another 3-4 games I'll grade of Jeanty's before I finalize my score. There are also 2-3 other runners within striking distance of Jeanty's spot at this point of my process. 

Regardless of where Jeanty finishes in the RSP's rankings, here are some thoughts about where he stands out. The first is in space. Like Jahmyr Gibbs, Jeanty is not the back opposing defenses want to see outside the tackle box. 

Jeanty will be a weapon in the passing game out of the backfield with targets at or near the line of scrimmage when detached from the formation. He'll also create problems for opposing defenders as a runner of perimeter plays. 

Jeanty's strengths remind me of players like Gibbs, Dalvin Cook, Reggie Bush, and Darrell Henderson Jr. Curvilinear speed to bend around obstacles without hard cuts and slippery skills in traffic are defining characteristics of these backs. 

Jeanty's work as a receiver will precede demands for him as a pass protector in most offenses but as we've seen, there are always a handful of coordinators that won't tailor the offense to the player's strengths and it could mean Jeanty will have to block or not see enough of the field. If that proves to be the case, Jeanty has work to do. 

Jeanty has a chance to deliver fantasy value as a rookie. Is he a generational running back prospect? As much as I find a lot of his plays impressive, I'm not ready to go there yet. 

6. Is OSU's Quinshon Judkins in the RB1 Mix? 

While not the big-play machine Jeanty is, Judkins could be the better all-around back. This won't necessarily make him the best fantasy option.

Think of it as a Josh Jacobs vs. De'Von Achane scenario. Jacobs is a more reliable player in every facet of the game except for authorizing big-play runs. This makes him more valuable as a game-script runner for NFL coaches. Achane gets the slight edge as a fantasy option. 

Judkins, who began his career at Ole Miss, is close to Jacobs along the spectrum of runners and Jeanty is along the lines of Achane. Judkins is a mature runner with size, contact balance, spatial awareness, maturity as a game manager, and quicker than fast. 

Like Jeanty, Judkins' weakness is pass protection. There are elements of his game that he can build on in this area. 

Judkins reminds me of a mix of Josh Jacobs and a young Kareem Hunt with a higher ceiling as a pass protector. He's a savvy runner who could be the David Montgomery to Jeanty's Jahmyr Gibbs. 

Both Detroit backs are top-10 fantasy producers. Keep that in mind. 

7. DJ Giddens: The 2025 NFL Draft Class Has RB Depth

This is a deep class for running back. I don't think it will earn the label I gave the 2024 WR class. It's more likely we'll see a lot of these runners earn contributor roles in the next 3-4 years, but I don't think we're going to be comparing it to the 2017 class that had Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, James Conner, Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams, Samaje Perine, D'Onta Foreman, and Chris Carson. 

There were eight -- arguably nine with Carson -- high-end fantasy starters from this group. The 2017 crew was the class we thought the 2018 class would become. 

Consider the 2025 class good enough to have 10-12 backs who could develop into contributors but I'd be shocked if more than 5 of them become perennial starters much less on par with the headlineers from 2017. 

A fun sleeper and a back representative of the depth 2025 has to offer is DJ Giddens. If I were to use the 2017 crew as points of stylistic comparison, Giddens is a mix of Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones, and Jamaal Williams but the highs of his game aren't on par with any of them at this stage of his development. 

Giddens is a mobile athlete with creativity, contact balance, and the willingness to work in tight creases between the tackles. 

Like Jeanty, Giddens overextends his frame as a pass protector and, too often, he serves as no more than a fun speed bump for pass rushers to get their thrills. Like Judkins, Giddens has the size to do the work and grow into a viable third-down option. 

8. WR Tre Harris: Impact Rookie? 

The short answer? No. The more nuanced answer? It's becoming possible that I'll change my mind. 

The reason is that Harris has demonstrated growth during his college career. He's becoming a more artful player with route running against man-to-man coverage. It's a good sign for a player whose calling card is tracking and catching the football. 

Zone coverage is still a final frontier with Harris' game. 

Harris will be a fan favorite with his athletic displays, but he may need more time. Think Xavier Legette. 

9.  Savion Williams: Don't Logo Scout

Josh Doctson. Jalen Reagor. Quentin Johnston. While Johnston has shown the promise to develop into a capable receiver, TCU's past three early-round receiver prospects haven't lived up to the buzz of their draft capital. It influences the public to think that TCU isn't capable of generating capable NFL starters at wide receiver. 

This is a form of logo scouting -- judging the quality of a prospect based on the outcome of alumni at the same position -- and it's not a legitimate evaluation process. While there can be something about the college program that facilitates or limits the development potential of players who matriculated during the same era of coaches, it doesn't mean that the player is cursed to repeat the disappointments of past players. 

For instance, TCU aligns its primary receivers to the left side of the field and rarely uses them elsewhere. While this may limit a wide receiver prospect's experience with roles he'll see in the NFL, most rookies need time to learn multiple roles in a pro offense. 

Aligning solely to one side of the field also doesn't influence the receiver's releases, stems, breaks, and pass-catching techniques. Jalen Reagor's issues are different from Quentin Johnston's. The same was true with Doctson. 

Savion Williams is a different player than this trio of Horned Frogs receivers. Listed at 6'5, 225 pounds, Williams' hands are much better than Johnston's. 

If there's any similarity among Williams, Reagor, and Johnston, it's their skill after the catch. Still, each has different styles as a runner. Williams is powerful and agile. 

It's unlikely Williams earns the same draft capital as Doctson, Reagor, and Johnston, but it's also possible he has a better career. Williams is an intriguing player who reminds me of what Cordarrelle Patterson might have become as a receiver if Patterson was better at translating the classroom to the field. 

10. Kobe Hudson: Sleeper? 

A transfer to UCF from Auburn, Hudson isn't a big-name prospect but from the six games I studied last year, I was impressed with his pass-catching and skill as a runner.  

Hudson is an effective vertical receiver.

He has competent release combinations that work for him and college and could serve as the foundation for his success in the NFL. He has the acceleration to beat tight coverage within 10-15 yards of the line of scrimmage. 

Hudson has developed a few setup techniques at the top of stems to turn defenders around before he breaks on vertical routes. He can also use these for routes breaking back to the quarterback.

Hudson must refine his breaks so they are precise and can be delivered at full speed. At this point his missing refined speed breaks and hard breaks.

Overall, Hudson could contribute as a deep threat against mismatched defenders as the fourth receiver on the field. If he can elevate his man-to-man game from the stem through the break-point, he can elevate his standing from a talented open-field and vertical threat to a well-rounded option capable of starting outside.

Happy Thanksgiving! See you next week. 

Or

Follow @mattwaldman.bsky.social

 

 

Already a subscriber?

Continue reading this content with a 100% FREE Insider account.

By signing up and providing us with your email address, you're agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use and to receive emails from Tennessee.
Photos provided by Imagn Images
Share This Article

More by Matt Waldman

 

Replacements: Week 18

Matt Waldman

The weekly list of preemptive additions before their fantasy emergence and candidates who could contribute due to unexpected late-week events.

01/03/25 Read More
 

Replacements: Week 17

Matt Waldman

The weekly list of preemptive additions before their fantasy emergence and candidates who could contribute due to unexpected late-week events.

12/27/24 Read More
 

The Gut Check No.644: What We Got from Michael Penix Jr.

Matt Waldman

Matt Waldman breaks down what fantasy GMs got from quarterback Michael Penix Jr.'s first start and what to expect moving forward.

12/24/24 Read More
 

The Top 10: Week 17 (Lessons Learned and Validated)

Matt Waldman

The Top 10 features Matt Waldman's film-driven analysis to help GMs manage their fantasy squads.

12/24/24 Read More
 

Replacements: Week 16

Matt Waldman

The weekly list of preemptive additions before their fantasy emergence and candidates who could contribute due to unexpected late-week events.

12/20/24 Read More
 

Roundtable: Fantasy vs. Reality II

Matt Waldman

The Footballguys roundtable picks between sets of two players they'd prefer in fantasy football and building an NFL team.

12/19/24 Read More