The Top 10: Week 12

The Top 10 features Matt Waldman's film-driven analysis to help GMs manage their fantasy squads.

Matt Waldman's The Top 10: Week 12 Matt Waldman Published 11/19/2024

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The Top 10: The Cliff's Notes

  1. The rib injury is a convenient excuse, but the league is catching up to Jayden Daniels. 
  2. Jalen Hurts provided teaching tape to Daniels for fighting in the pocket. 
  3. Anthony Richardson played well, but he also got help from his friends -- and it was the difference.
  4. Bo Nix's game management has been the difference among his rookie AND veteran peers. 
  5. It may be popular to say Saquon Barkley is "Penn State Barkley," but he has matured since then.
  6. Amari Cooper made a great catch, but he's not trustworthy until his cast is off his hand. 
  7. Quentin Johnston is a good route runner. He's not a ball-winner. Ladd McConkey is both. 
  8. Tee Higgins' attack is teaching tape. 
  9. Joe Burrow's pocket feel remains the best in football. 
  10. J.K. Dobbins could still be a buy-low in dynasty leagues. 

1. The League Is Catching Up to Jayden Daniels

Some want to believe -- or make you believe -- differently every year, but the development arc for most rookie quarterbacks is far from linear.

Here's the typical storyline. 

  • The league plays base defensive looks against rookie passers for the first 6-8 weeks. 
  • Opposing defenses will try to blitz, but if the rookie and team perform well, they limit their aggression. 
  • If the rookie and team perform poorly, opponents ramp up the blitzing. 
  • If the rookie and team are performing well, fans and media tell you the rookie is taking the league by storm. Typically, the rookie looks like he did in college on a good day. 
  • If the rookie and team are performing poorly, fans and media tell you the rookie is a bust. 
  • Opponents collect about 4-6 weeks of scouting reports before implementing a handful of adjustments to test rookies. 
  • Each week, future opponents gather more tape and add more adjustments. 
  • Strong performers early on get tested more often with things the league has seen that these passers struggled with in isolated instances.
  • This is when we see many rookies experience a production dip -- typically during Weeks 8-17 of their first starts. 
  • If the rookie initially performs poorly, there are instances where his team continues making adjustments and we see a gradual improvement -- sometimes that improvement stays ahead of their opponents' scouting curve. 
  • Regardless of how they began, the rookies must show the ability to overcome the adjustments and look as comfortable as they did in college before the end of Year Two or the middle of Year Three as a starter or they are given the hook -- unless you're Daniel Jones. 

Jayden Daniels looked like the second-coming of Productive Robert Griffin III during his first 6-8 games -- down to the stats. Even their adjusted yards per attempt were similar -- that stat that gets my stats-obsessed colleagues feeling like their takes are about to get sticky.

Daniels was QB6 after 11 games. However, he's QB13 during the past six games and QB16 during the past three. Go ahead and blame a rib injury, but it's more than that. 

None of this makes Daniels a fraud of a prospect. Most young quarterbacks go through this phase of development. Three of Daniels' past four opponents -- the Eagles, Steelers, and Bears -- are three of the stingiest defenses to quarterbacks in the league this year. 

Daniels gets a rematch with the Eagles after the bye week. Tennessee, New Orleans, Dallas, and Atlanta are favorable defenses. If Daniels struggles against Dallas and Tennessee before the bye week, it might be worth upgrading your quarterback for the playoffs. 

Considering you invested in Daniels knowing his bye week might during your first-round playoff matchup, you probably have a capable starter. If you don't, get one. 

2. Jalen Hurts: Pocket Teaching Tape for Daniels

There was a time Hurts ran from the pocket more than he fought from it. Not anymore. 

Daniels must develop a better feel for tight pockets. He must learn when to climb and remain patient with the best read for the down and distance.

Daniels had 2-3 plays against the Eagles similar to the one above for Hurts where he could have moved the chains and kept a drive alive. This is the next step for Hurts' development as a pocket passer. 

3. Anthony Richardson: A Little Help from His Friends

The Colts' party line for benching Anthony Richardson was that he needed to work smarter to gain the respect of the veterans. It's not that Richardson was Paxton Lynch and playing video games when he should have been studying. 

Richardson is a good student. He's known for taking meticulous notes and possessing strong organizational skills in the classroom/QB room. According to Richardson, it was a handful of minor details -- details that a more experienced quarterback would have handled. 

Based on what I've seen from Richardson before and after the benching thus far, that party line is as valid as a statement from Cold War Russia. It's likely true that Richardson had some minor details to iron out with how he approached his weekly work away from the field. 

It's also likely that Jim Irsay listened to too much sports media and reacted poorly to Richardson needing a breather. It's also likely that Jim Irsay saw Joe Flacco as the potential leading man for the sequel: Mid-Season Savior Part II -- This Time It's the Colts. 

Unfortunately, sequels are rarely better than the original and Flacco floundered. To save face, I bet Richardson took one for the team and discussed things he needed to learn that, while likely true, weren't as important as Irsay and the FPTTH (Former Players Turned Talking Heads) throwing a temper tantrum about the tap-out. 

All good. Richardson faced the Jets -- a defense that is worse than its designation as the sixth-stingiest fantasy defense for the past five weeks against the likes of Russell Wilson, the Patriots QBs, C.J. Stroud, and Kyler Murray, but better than its season-long performances as the ninth-most generous. 

What we witnessed was an accurate quarterback who faced similar pressure as Joe Flacco and performed better. He manipulated the secondary, placed the ball well, and even got some help from butter-fingered receivers who have been among the league leaders in dropped passes. 

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There were three other impressive throws I didn't even show. There was the accurate placement under pressure that Richardson layered around defenders to Michael Pittman Jr for 20 yards.

Richardson hit Josh Downs on third down while wearing DE Quinnen Williams like a coat. And, of course, the deep shot off to Alec Pierce off a pump fake late in the fourth quarter on the game-winning drive. Richardson made plays. So did his receivers.

Detroit, New England, Denver, Tennessee, and the Giants are the remaining opponents on the Colts' schedule. This is a neutral-to-difficult schedule on paper. 

In reality, the Lions are vulnerable to vertical passers -- Matthew Stafford, Geno Smith, Sam Darnold, Mason Rudolph, and Jordan Love delivered at least 250 yards through the air against them this year. Stafford, Smith, and Love are the closest archetype of comparison to Richardson and Love's 273 yards was the lowest total of the trio. 

The Patriots just gave up 295 yards and 4 scores to Stafford. They are a lot worse than their data when you remove Tyler Huntley and Shane Waldron-bungled Caleb Williams from the equation. These two passers also inflated Tennessee's value. 

The Giants have given up 149 rushing yards and 3 scores on the ground during the past 5 weeks and they already are a middling unit. Denver is legit. 

I'd still bet on Richardson this year. 

4. Game Management: How Draftniks Underrated Bo Nix

The fantasy draft community downplayed Nix's game management as if it was a simple function of his "advanced age" relative to other prospects. False. 

If Nix's game management was a product of age and experience, Mitchell Trubisky, Drew Lock, Daniel Jones, Desmond Ridder, and a host of failed NFL starter prospects would have figured it out. 

When a quarterback makes management mistakes, he limits his opportunities in multiple ways. He limits his number of reps because he ended the drive early. He limits the quality of reps because the team typically falls behind and opponents can deliver more pressure.

He also begins to think more than execute within the flow of the game and this slows him down and leads to more mistakes. 

When a young quarterback limits these game management mistakes, he earns more quality reps and isn't overthinking. That long-term net increase in positive reps helps him develop faster if the rest of his skills are competitive with his peers. 

The first five minutes will tell you enough...

5. "Penn State Saquon Barkley" Is Back? Nope. Better...

"Penn State Saquon Barkley" was amazing by collegiate standards. Let's put the beer bong down for a minute and remember that as good as big-time college football is, top NFL athletes routinely "out-athlete" opponents even when they lack a refined understanding of the game. 

This was "Penn State Saquon Barkley," when projecting to the NFL.  

Barkley's impatience and forays away from his blocking to attack the first opening he saw were reasons I saw Nick Chubb as the most NFL-ready runner of that draft class and the best overall talent -- by a hair. 

Barkley has learned how to manage the game. He works within the scheme and is smarter about when to take chances. 

Barkley has matured as a runner. He's "Eagles Saquon Barkley," and that's a lot better than the dude he was in Happy Valley. The vengeance tour is in full force. If you survive the Week 15 date with Pittsburgh, the rest of the schedule is excellent. 

6.  Don't Trust Amari Cooper

At least until Cooper ditches the soft cast. Yes, Cooper made a great one-handed catch with the injured hand/wrist...

He only earned 3 targets on 2 catches for 55 yards. He has more value for the Bills than fantasy GMs at this time. Until the cast comes off, he's a vertical decoy with mediocre value. 

7. Do the Chargers Still Need a Primary WR?

Quentin Johnston has the route running and after-catch skills of a primary receiver. He came into the league with good routes and they are only getting better. 

Johnston is not a consistent ball-winner who uses his size effectively. The root issue is tracking the football. He stops too late to begin his jumps and win with his height and length. 

Ladd McConkey lacks Johnston's size, strength, and overall explosion. Still, McConkey's technique to attack "trust targets" is textbook. 

McConkey is currently WR18 in PPR formats. Johnston is WR44. McConkey has been WR8 during the past five weeks. Johnston is WR35. 

Does this mean McConkey is the Chargers' primary receiver? For now, yes -- and that was the plan. 

Can he be the Chargers' primary after this year? For a smaller receiver, McConkey is tough enough to play through an abdominal injury he sustained weeks ago.

I think it was Tony Romo who mentioned that McConkey's habit of finishing plays is getting him folded like an accordion too often. When stretching for an incomplete pass late in last week's game, McConkey appeared to grab his abdomen in pain while returning to earth. 

McConkey could build on his production and remain the primary option in L.A. for years to come, but he must get better at protecting himself and that's easier said than done. McConkey might be better as the team's 1-B with a traditional primary option who can allow McConkey to win with volume more than big-play efficiency.  

Just a thought. I'm still bullish on McConkey, but consider this a minor long-term question.

8. Tee Higgins' Attack Is Teaching Tape

Although his hands can be tighter at the catch point to prevent clap attacks, Higgins attacks the ball at the earliest point and his technique is often sound in all but the most difficult scenarios. 

I don't know how likely Higgins will remain in Cincinnati after this year, but he has a great situation if the pay can be enough. He has an all-world running mate and an all-world QB.

Higgins may want the challenge and the paycheck of being the primary but I think a part of him will look back on what he had in Cincinnati and wish he stayed. 

9. Joe Burrow's Pocket Game Is the Best in Football

This climb of the pocket against Derwin James Jr. may not seem all that amazing, but it is. Most edge pressure arrives slow enough for a quarterback to time his climb at the latest point so he can turn a big defender's momentum to his advantage. 

When it's a safety coming in hot like James, a quarterback must begin their climb much earlier. This is difficult to do because the speed of the defender is a change-up to what they usually experience with larger edge rushers and the blitz is usually a surprise.

If the quarterback doesn't see the blitz until it's already working into the backfield, it may be tough to recognize it's a defensive back until it's too late. This is why this play is extraordinary. 

The Bengals face the Steelers after the bye, but with Dallas, Tennessee, and Cleveland in Weeks 14-16, Burrow and the Bengals are a strong playoff option -- even with Denver in Week 17.

10. J.K. Dobbins: Still A Dynasty Buy-Low?  

PPR's RB13 after this weekend, Dobbins has been RB12 since Week 7, so his production has been steady, especially with Gus Edwards out and not a threat to steal red zone work. Edwards' return may change that dynamic down the stretch. If it does, see if you can buy low on Dobbins. 

The Chargers' offensive line will only get better under Jim Harbaugh, and Dobbins has earned another year to lead this backfield. His 115 yards as a receiver is also a low watermark for a back with his pass-catching skills. Still, it's easy to see how advanced a runner Dobbins is. 

If forced to pay RB1 freight for Dobbins, I'd probably pass due to his injury history and age, but if you're one RB away from a win-now situation and Dobbins is available as a mid-to-low-end RB2, I'd take the chance if you've struck out with other options that have more years on paper and a healthier resume. 

Good luck, and see you next week. 

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