The Top 10: Week 10

The Top 10 features Matt Waldman's film-driven analysis to help GMs manage their fantasy squads.

Matt Waldman's The Top 10: Week 10 Matt Waldman Published 11/05/2024

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The Top 10: The Cliff's Notes

  1. If you're thinking about riding out C.J. Stroud as a fantasy starter while Nico Collins is out, don't.
  2. Joe Mixon is carrying the Texans' offense. Take that ride if you got it. 
  3. Saquon Barkley's reverse leapfrog didn't even need a wrestling ring -- a breakdown is in order. 
  4. Bryce Young has shown improved play for the past two weeks and it's more than the competition. 
  5. Rome Odunze check-in: He's playing well and worth making a buy-low dynasty inquiry. 
  6. Marvin Harrison Jr.. check-in: His glossed-over flaws at Ohio State are still there. Sell him for Odunze?  
  7. Jayden Reed is the best receiver in Green Bay and he's going to get better. 
  8. Is Jordan Love a mobile Jimmy Garoppolo? The reasons may be different, but the outcome? Maybe not.
  9. Jared Goff is telling us to say goodbye to all the hasty narratives about his quarterbacking. 
  10. Joe Flacco: "I'll have what Anthony Richardson is having without the size and mobility..."

1. C.J. Stroud Is Still Good, But His OL Is a QB Fantasy Killer

Fantasy football's QB14 heading into Monday night, Stroud took 8 sacks for 56 yards against the Jets on Thursday night. Without Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs, Stroud lacks the same advantages he had earlier in the season to compensate for poor pass protection.

With the Texans' announcing on Monday afternoon that they are still in wait-and-see mode with Collins' health in Week 10, it could be another 2-3 weeks before Stroud has even two-thirds of his top corps in tow. If you already haven't faded Stroud from your lineups out of hope that he'll overcome the gaps with his surrounding talent, it's time to face reality. 

From a football perspective, Stroud is doing valiant work to overcome his offensive line. 

From a fantasy perspective, no one can expect Stroud to deliver consistent starter production when his line has shown it's susceptible to tackle-end twists and cross blitzes combined with other disguised pressure. This is something I noted in Week 7's contest with the Packers and the Jets pounced on Houston's weaknesses up front. 

It was ugly for Stroud and while the Colts in Week 10 offer a potential respite, don't count on it. The Colts sacked Sam Darnold four times on Sunday night thanks to pressure from defensive tackles Grover Stewart and DeForest Buckner who combined for three of those four take-downs.

Houston's guards have been the weakest links in pass protection, which means the Colts might be worth a cheap streamer start for those of you with the Seahawks, Browns, and Packers' defenses on bye. Stroud has been the fantasy QB20 since Week 6. Stroud's next two defenses may be statistically generous, but the Texans' weakness makes Stroud a fantasy liability in one-QB formats. 

2. Joe Mixon Is Carrying the Texans' Offense

Our reigning RB14 heading into Monday night's contest, Mixon has been the RB3 since Week 5. His 93.6 fantasy points in PPR formats during this span is almost as much as Chase Brown and Zack Moss in Cincinnati combined (99.8 PPR points). 

If there is an underlying theme for the 2024 NFL and fantasy seasons, it's the demise of the bell-cow RB has been greatly exaggerated. Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, Kyren Williams, Josh Jacobs, and James Conner are all on track for 280 carries this year. Mixon, J.K. Dobbins, Breece Hall, Aaron Jones, D'Andre Swift, Chuba Hubbard, Najee Harris, and Tony Pollard are projected for 260 attempts. 

We're talking about half of the league using their lead running back like the old days -- more if you consider Ken Walker III and James Cook are earning a substantial rate of carries per game and Jordan Mason would easily be on the list if not for Christian McCaffrey's eventual return to the 49ers' lineup. 

Mixon's talents deserve a full workload and as bad as the Texans offensive line has been with pass protection, they are better opening creases on the ground. When they aren't, Mixon has the veteran acumen and peak athletic ability to erase his units' mistakes. 

The only thing that's bad about Mixon's fantasy value is a Week 14 bye week. Otherwise, matchups with the Jaguars, Cowboys, Titans, and Dolphins are favorable.

The Chiefs and Ravens in Weeks 15 and 16 are not. If you're an expert wheeler-dealer, trading Mixon before the playoffs might be worthwhile if you have depth at the position with favorable schedules and need a receiver or top tight end to bolster your starting lineup.

3. Saquon Barkley's Reverse Leapfrog

Was it the best play I've ever seen from a running back? Not even close. Marshawn Lynch's Beast Quakes were more meaningful. 

Was it the flashiest move I've ever seen a running back make? Likely. Combined with the rest of the run, it was pure, uncut Barkley at his finest. 

Barkley offers a fantasy-dominant upside against weak run defenses. Dallas and Washington qualify and they're next. 

4. Bryce Young Is Improving

I noted this last week against the Broncos' defense, one of the five stingiest fantasy units against quarterbacks this year. 

Although the Saints' defense has been reeling of late, it remains a physical unit with ballhawks in the secondary and an aggressive mentality in the box. It's the same team Young faced in September and struggled mightily, prompting concerns that he is among the worst QB busts in the history of the NFL. 

Narratives, aren't they great? Try this on for size: Young is getting better. 

Worried about him finding open men while under pressure? Don't. 

Concerned he won't have placement and accuracy in the NFL vertical game? Don't. 

Although Young still has a ways to go before he becomes a fantasy starter -- and the Panthers organization's recent history of dysfunction doesn't guarantee it will happen -- Young has a good matchup with the Giants this weekend and great matchups with the Buccaneers in Week 12 and the Cowboys in Week 15. 

If you need a stretch-run streamer at quarterback, Young may not be the ideal choice, but he could be surprisingly serviceable. 

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5. Rome Odunze Is A Buy-Low in Dynasty...

The Bears' rookie is WR59 heading into Monday night with 25 catches, 391 yards, and 1 touchdown. His 71.6 fantasy points in PPR are 31 less than Marvin Harrison Jr.., the No.21 PPR option and fourth-best rookie producer at the position this year. 

Beneath the box score, I like what I'm seeing from Odunze more than what I've seen from Harrison. Why? Odunze is showing better route skills. 

His timing routes have more refined craft with breaks...

Odunze's zone routes have more conceptual acumen for creating and sustaining space when the play goes off-structure. 

Odunze may not be the top target-getter in Chicago this year, but that will change in 1-2 seasons. He's a savvy receiver for his age with all of the physical and technical skills required of a primary option in the NFL. 

Although I like Harrison and he's a better producer right now, it may prove more worthwhile long-term to... 

6. ...Offer Marvin Harrison Jr. for Odunze And A Pick! 

Yes, I said offer Harrison for Odunze and either a top-20 rookie draft pick -- or a commensurate player. This is something I'd consider if I were rebuilding.

Harrison may become everything my peers believed pre-draft, but the issues with his game that I thought would keep him from reaching his WR1 potential are getting in the way of his progress at this early stage. Harrison had two recurring flaws as a receiver:

  1. His release work hasn't been sharp enough to avoid getting pinned to the boundary on vertical routes. 
  2. He uses sub-optimal attacks based on the trajectory of targets, and it limits his ability to win plays that he should with his length and strength. 

I've shared this video twice before at Footballguys. Here it is again. 

This lackluster technique is similar to what we saw in Week 9. 

Harrison may be WR21 in PPR formats after 9 weeks, but he's WR48 since Week 5 and teammate Michael Wilson is one spot ahead of him during this span. 

Harrison has the skills to improve his game and become a top option. I have concerns Arizona and Kyler Murray are the setting for it to happen. 

I'm also low-key concerned that he has watched his dad, Marvin Harrison Jr., Sr., earn a Hall of Fame career with sub-optimal attack technique. Junior may believe that he has gotten this far with the same style of pass-catching and there's no need to change it. 

There isn't if he wants to remain a contributor or low-end starter who can deliver high-ceiling outputs when targeted enough to his narrow window of strengths as a receiver. There will be a need to change it if he wants to be mentioned in the same name as the elite receivers in the game and I'm not sure anyone is going to tell him. I'm also wondering if he'll listen. 

7. Jayden Reed Is Only Getting Better

For the past two years, I've shared my love for Reed's prospects as a Stefon Diggs-Laveranues Coles starter kit. During that span, I've received the "yeah, but..." replies from scouts and analysts in my circles. 

"He's surprised me, but I have doubts he can become a match-up route runner against top corners."

"Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson are much more prototypical prospects (they liked their size)."

"His touches in the running game are inflating his perceived value as a standalone receiver."

While true that Reed's 110 rushing yards and a touchdown is a hefty total relative to the rest of his corps, Reed leads the next-best Packers receiver in receiving yardage by a total of 208 on only 2 extra catches. 

Reed's 17.2 yards-per-catch average is 2.6 yards better than the next-best starter. Certainly, Reed's role earns him more match-up advantages and it's a viable argument toward mitigating my long-term enthusiasm. 

Still, there are details to Reed's game that illustrate a level of craft that few possess and indicate he'll only get better. 

Few receivers possess the confidence to accelerate this late in a back-shoulder route and make the sudden turn as late as Reed, especially in the elements. Reed plays with a lot of control. 

If he doesn't earn a second contract in Green Bay, the Packers will regret they didn't give him one. 

8. Is Jordan Love A Quicksand QB?

What is a "Quicksand QB?" My old friend Mark Schofield used to reference this scene from "The Replacements," when analyzing quarterbacks who made impulsive decisions when plays didn't go as planned. 

Jimmy Garoppolo and Derek Carr are Quicksand QBs who are prone to self-destruction when the pressure gets too intense during games. Jordan Love is a different style of quarterback than Garoppolo and Carr, but that self-destructive mechanism has been a part of this game since he was at Utah State. 

Love would make a bad throw, a bad read, or a poor decision against pressure that led to a turnover. Instead of taking better care of the ball or managing the game with greater wisdom, Love would double down in the dumb department. He'd attempt confounding plays for the situation in an attempt to make up for the last mistake and only make things far worse. 

I hoped Love would mature from this behavior while sitting on the Packers' bench for a few years. It appeared he did during the first half of the 2023 season. As opponents developed a book on Love, we began to see situations where Love's game would deteriorate and the quicksand would appear. 

The same was true earlier this year and yet again this weekend. I've been asked if the groin injury is a factor. It's not--it's the emotional impulsivity infiltrating his decision-maker when he feels desperate to turn things around and lean on his physical gifts. 

Does having a quicksand game make Love a poor fantasy starter? Not necessarily. He has the offense, the weaponry, and the physical skills to deliver as a true fantasy QB1 just like he did last year. 

At the same time, if his performance continues to suffer, we may have to reconsider that Love is completely over the hump of his developmental track. When factoring out his injuries, Love is averaging 16.5 fantasy points per game this year -- 14th among quarterbacks. This is the territory Carr and Garoppolo lurked as fantasy options during their careers. 

NFL scouts believe we don't truly see who a young quarterback is until he has earned 18-30 starts. It's usually in season two as a starter that we begin to see opposing defenses exploit a young quarterback's weaknesses. 

I wouldn't dump Love from your dynasty rosters -- not remotely. I would keep an eye on the quicksand behavior because there are two ends of the spectrum in which it could manifest. 

There's the Garoppolo end of the spectrum, where Love can help a team get deep into the playoffs but when he must carry the team in high-pressure moments, he'll have inexplicable errors from trying too hard. The Carr end of the spectrum is a weekly internal battle with this perception that leads to falling apart more often in the regular season. 

If the quicksand moments become more common, like they were at Utah State, it might be time to move on before it becomes obvious. If they aren't that common, Love can be a strong fantasy option who has some postseason hurdles that only matter to Packer fans. 

9. Jared Goff: Dismantling Narratives One by One

Narrative: Goff was a Sean McVay puppet who needed a coach in his ear to run an offense. 

Reality: Goff led a Lions offense that threw everything at him to the NFC Championship Game, beating the "puppet master" in the process. 

Narrative: Goff folds like a cheap suit against pressure and Robert Flores exposed it as the Dolphins coach.

Reality: Goff delivered 280 yards and 2 TDs against a Robert Flores-engineered Vikings defense that loves to blitz. 

Narrative: Goff can't perform in the elements. 

Reality: Goff was efficient in a 24-14 win in heavy rain and swirling winds of Green Bay.

As Tom Brady noted, quarterbacks for fair-weathered teams don't see enough games in the elements to get their bad-weather gear solidified. Goff has finally done this as an NFC North team facing the Bears and Packers each year. 

Goff is QB16 after eight starts and QB20 during the past four, but during this four-game span, he's completing a league-high 80.5 percent of his passes. He's also second in the league in yards per attempt (9.48) and seventh with nine touchdowns. 

The Lions can run the ball and dominate opponents with their two RBs, and the remaining schedule is filled with generous run defenses, including the Jaguars, Colts, Bears (2xs), and Bills. At the same time, the ground game makes these defenses vulnerable to big plays in the passing game, and the Jaguars, Colts, and Texans are vulnerable. 

Goff isn't your primary fantasy starter, but he has big-play streamer value as we continue through our bye weeks. 

10. Joe Flacco: Anthony, Hold My Beer...

Well, at least the stats looked better for Jim Irsay, who probably browbeat Shane Steichen into benching Anthony Richardson. Let's hope the Colts are true(r) to their word and give Richardson an environment to watch, learn, prepare behind the scenes, and then stick with him through the rest of his growing pains. 

That's it! 

Good luck.

 

Photos provided by Imagn Images
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