The Top 10: The Cliff's Notes
- If you're thinking about riding out C.J. Stroud as a fantasy starter while Nico Collins is out, don't.
- Joe Mixon is carrying the Texans' offense. Take that ride if you got it.
- Saquon Barkley's reverse leapfrog didn't even need a wrestling ring -- a breakdown is in order.
- Bryce Young has shown improved play for the past two weeks and it's more than the competition.
- Rome Odunze check-in: He's playing well and worth making a buy-low dynasty inquiry.
- Marvin Harrison Jr.. check-in: His glossed-over flaws at Ohio State are still there. Sell him for Odunze?
- Jayden Reed is the best receiver in Green Bay and he's going to get better.
- Is Jordan Love a mobile Jimmy Garoppolo? The reasons may be different, but the outcome? Maybe not.
- Jared Goff is telling us to say goodbye to all the hasty narratives about his quarterbacking.
- Joe Flacco: "I'll have what Anthony Richardson is having without the size and mobility..."
1. C.J. Stroud Is Still Good, But His OL Is a QB Fantasy Killer
Fantasy football's QB14 heading into Monday night, Stroud took 8 sacks for 56 yards against the Jets on Thursday night. Without Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs, Stroud lacks the same advantages he had earlier in the season to compensate for poor pass protection.
With the Texans' announcing on Monday afternoon that they are still in wait-and-see mode with Collins' health in Week 10, it could be another 2-3 weeks before Stroud has even two-thirds of his top corps in tow. If you already haven't faded Stroud from your lineups out of hope that he'll overcome the gaps with his surrounding talent, it's time to face reality.
From a football perspective, Stroud is doing valiant work to overcome his offensive line.
Despite the #Texans LG and LT getting beaten early again, C.J. Stroud and Robert Woods do good work on the scramble drill.
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 3, 2024
Texans OL is not playing great in pass pro and that's hurting this offense more than the WR injuries. pic.twitter.com/tThpEfbi1T
From a fantasy perspective, no one can expect Stroud to deliver consistent starter production when his line has shown it's susceptible to tackle-end twists and cross blitzes combined with other disguised pressure. This is something I noted in Week 7's contest with the Packers and the Jets pounced on Houston's weaknesses up front.
Two more sacks on the #Texans OL. The LG is not handling the #Jets DTs effectively and the RT also gets pushed into the pocket twice.
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 3, 2024
One sack ends with a Stroud turnover in the RZ. pic.twitter.com/4lpWpxtiY3
The #GoPackGo got pressure on #Texans with cross blitzes vs C/G combo. #Jets are doing it on C/G combo with T/E Twists or Twists + edge blitzes.
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 3, 2024
They are also anticipating PA with pulling guards and twisting where the G left to pull.
Immediate pressure granted :) pic.twitter.com/sjMDWrxyBG
It was ugly for Stroud and while the Colts in Week 10 offer a potential respite, don't count on it. The Colts sacked Sam Darnold four times on Sunday night thanks to pressure from defensive tackles Grover Stewart and DeForest Buckner who combined for three of those four take-downs.
Houston's guards have been the weakest links in pass protection, which means the Colts might be worth a cheap streamer start for those of you with the Seahawks, Browns, and Packers' defenses on bye. Stroud has been the fantasy QB20 since Week 6. Stroud's next two defenses may be statistically generous, but the Texans' weakness makes Stroud a fantasy liability in one-QB formats.
2. Joe Mixon Is Carrying the Texans' Offense
Our reigning RB14 heading into Monday night's contest, Mixon has been the RB3 since Week 5. His 93.6 fantasy points in PPR formats during this span is almost as much as Chase Brown and Zack Moss in Cincinnati combined (99.8 PPR points).
If there is an underlying theme for the 2024 NFL and fantasy seasons, it's the demise of the bell-cow RB has been greatly exaggerated. Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, Kyren Williams, Josh Jacobs, and James Conner are all on track for 280 carries this year. Mixon, J.K. Dobbins, Breece Hall, Aaron Jones, D'Andre Swift, Chuba Hubbard, Najee Harris, and Tony Pollard are projected for 260 attempts.
We're talking about half of the league using their lead running back like the old days -- more if you consider Ken Walker III and James Cook are earning a substantial rate of carries per game and Jordan Mason would easily be on the list if not for Christian McCaffrey's eventual return to the 49ers' lineup.
Mixon's talents deserve a full workload and as bad as the Texans offensive line has been with pass protection, they are better opening creases on the ground. When they aren't, Mixon has the veteran acumen and peak athletic ability to erase his units' mistakes.
The NFL is learning through testing of processing speed that the closer a player is aligned to the center the more he must process.
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 3, 2024
Here's how #Texans RB Joe Mixon processes this play with a box read that helps him defeat tthe interior push from the DL in short order. pic.twitter.com/TsbdkD5juG
#Jets run blitz the defender off the edge to disrupt the puller, but Joe Mixon is too efficient and dynamic and solves this problem like a pro at the top of his game. #Texans pic.twitter.com/8uG4XCcqFt
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 3, 2024
The only thing that's bad about Mixon's fantasy value is a Week 14 bye week. Otherwise, matchups with the Jaguars, Cowboys, Titans, and Dolphins are favorable.
The Chiefs and Ravens in Weeks 15 and 16 are not. If you're an expert wheeler-dealer, trading Mixon before the playoffs might be worthwhile if you have depth at the position with favorable schedules and need a receiver or top tight end to bolster your starting lineup.
3. Saquon Barkley's Reverse Leapfrog
Was it the best play I've ever seen from a running back? Not even close. Marshawn Lynch's Beast Quakes were more meaningful.
Was it the flashiest move I've ever seen a running back make? Likely. Combined with the rest of the run, it was pure, uncut Barkley at his finest.
Breaking down Saquon Barkley’s Bruce Lee Jeet Kune Do maneuver…
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 4, 2024
I bet he will eventually say he was setting up the spin too early and the leapfrog ala Jimmy Snuka was the improvised adjustment. #Eagles pic.twitter.com/A4KLPeoPHZ
Barkley offers a fantasy-dominant upside against weak run defenses. Dallas and Washington qualify and they're next.
4. Bryce Young Is Improving
I noted this last week against the Broncos' defense, one of the five stingiest fantasy units against quarterbacks this year.
Bryce Young looked more like the Bryce Young I saw at Alabama. He made a number of backside throws on second reads vs. Denver in tight pockets that were accurate.
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 29, 2024
Here are two. One caught my David Moore. One dropped by Xavier Legette#Panthers pic.twitter.com/awFMiXMKDO
Although the Saints' defense has been reeling of late, it remains a physical unit with ballhawks in the secondary and an aggressive mentality in the box. It's the same team Young faced in September and struggled mightily, prompting concerns that he is among the worst QB busts in the history of the NFL.
Narratives, aren't they great? Try this on for size: Young is getting better.
Worried about him finding open men while under pressure? Don't.
Bryce Young is about to get smothered by the DT but the placement to Ja'Tavion Sanders on this back-shoulder adjustment off a wheel is beautiful. #Panthers pic.twitter.com/ZCkZFrwQyv
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 4, 2024
Concerned he won't have placement and accuracy in the NFL vertical game? Don't.
Bryce Young with a dime to David Moore but Alontae Taylor reaches in and plucks the ball free. #Panthers pic.twitter.com/XB6fTk98P1
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 4, 2024
Bryce Young with another dime. Xavier Legette makes the catch but doesn't execute the pull-down to shield the DB. The DB robs Legette for the INT that really should have been called a fumble recovery. #Panthers pic.twitter.com/8rg9FrvzZI
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 4, 2024
Although Young still has a ways to go before he becomes a fantasy starter -- and the Panthers organization's recent history of dysfunction doesn't guarantee it will happen -- Young has a good matchup with the Giants this weekend and great matchups with the Buccaneers in Week 12 and the Cowboys in Week 15.
If you need a stretch-run streamer at quarterback, Young may not be the ideal choice, but he could be surprisingly serviceable.