The Top 10: Week 8

The Top 10 features Matt Waldman's film-driven analysis to help GMs manage their fantasy squads.

Matt Waldman's The Top 10: Week 8 Matt Waldman Published 10/22/2024

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The Top 10: The Cliff's Notes

  1. Nick Chubb's return from injury lacked box score oomph, but there were reasons for hope.  
  2. Tank Bigsby bullied the hapless Patriots--sell him while you got him. 
  3. Brian Thomas Jr. continues to prove that the "Big Three" of the 2024 WR Draft class was too small. 
  4. Russell Wilson's touch made all the difference for George Pickens and the Steelers' fantasy value. 
  5. The Packers cross-blitzed 1.7 points off C.J. Stroud's average fantasy points this weekend. 
  6. Robert Flores' blitzes put the perceived nail in Jared Goff's career coffin, but Goff is the NFL's Undertaker. 
  7. Dalton Kincaid just might benefit most from the Amari Cooper deal. 
  8. Bijan Robinson put on a clinic against the Seahawks' early penetration. 
  9. Speaking of bad run defenses, the Rams, Patriots, and Saints run defenses also look as bad as their stats. 
  10. Repercussions in Tampa with the Chris Godwin and Mike Evans injuries: Cade Otton, Jalen McMillan, and Sterling Shepard. 

1. Nick Chubb: Reasons for Hope

Once again, this isn't a Cleveland Brown's season, but you're damn straight this is a Nick Chubb department. The best pure runner in football since he entered the league in 2018...

...Please excuse this interruption for a public service announcement: Saquon Barkley? Christian McCaffrey? Derrick Henry? Alvin Kamara? Do you wish to file a claim for another back as the best in the NFL while Nick Chubb was healthy?

Here are your instructions: write it down, print it, ball it up, and toss it into File 13. We will answer you within an eon and never. Or, you can simply stick it. You're welcome. 

Chubb's second three-ligament tear to the same knee seemed like a death knell for his career--at least the end of his reign as the best back in football. While that may prove the case, we'll need to see more than 11 carries in a game where Cleveland lost its troubled starting quarterback and rolled with an out-of-his-depth third-stringer.

By the way, why did the Browns roll with Dorian Thompson-Robinson? The Browns' brass was collectively a bunch of snowflakes who were afraid to keep Jameis Winston active because they didn't want Cleveland fans chanting Winston's name with Deshaun Watson on the field. 

Cleveland's upper management forfeited its best chance to remain competitive in this game due to its fragile ego. It wouldn't be a shock if the team concocted a hand injury to make Winston eligible to come off the bench as the emergency quarterback. 

This sordid Watson chapter is over, for now. That's enough reason for hope in Cleveland because as talented as Watson is on paper, Bob Harris said it best: This circus was nothing but a clown car that was a distraction for the team. 

This is Winston's team now and that will allow the Browns to remove the Watson filter from Kevin Stefanski's true offense. Whether they have enough weapons for Winston to thrive is a different story, but the distraction and morale killer is gone and Chubb showed he's healthy enough to contribute--and potentially better than that.

Straight-line speed is usually the last thing to return from an injury like Chubb's. The fact that he displayed the change of direction quickness and deceleration is more important anyway. We're hoping for the improbable with Chubb, but the initial signs are more positive than I expected. 

2. Final Call to Sell-High on Tank Bigsby

Utilization data be damned, Tank Bigsby has, at best, four fantasy-worthy games in seven weeks. Of those four games, three were against opponents that are among the 12 most generous units to running backs in fantasy football. 

Bigsby isn't a bad running back, but his team isn't good enough to support fantasy value against defenses of a higher caliber. Bigsby is bullying the professional wrestling equivalent of jobbers. 

Even his high-worthy plays are the product of big holes and flat-footed defensive backs. 

The Jaguars face the Packers, Eagles, Vikings, and Lions before the bye. All four opponents have the offense to force Jacksonville into high-scoring affairs to remain in the game. Bigsby has two targets in the passing game this year and he won't be seeing a rapid increase with or without Travis Etienne Jr. because D'Ernest Johnson is a more proven receiver. 

Doug Pederson also reiterated that Etienne isn't losing his job due to an injury. Like it or not, Jacksonville's backfield is a committee, and Bigsby is only a match-up option for fantasy GMs. 

The Packers will be Bigsby's best matchup until Week 15 against the Raiders. 

3. Brian Thomas Jr.. Is An A.J. Green Starter Kit

And unlike many young players compared to great players, all of the requisite pieces come in the box--and there are redeemable coupons for bonus pieces. 

These plays carry significance because I analyzed Thomas earlier this season making technically sound plays--clean plays--whereas these plays above are "dirty" plays where opportunities to utilize strong technique are more difficult. When a young play can win with fundamentals and when fundamentals are thrown out the window, that's a good sign. 

With Jacksonville facing a slew of high-scoring offenses, look for Thomas to be a reason the Jaguars can't potentially stay in games and that's good for his fantasy value. 

4. Russell Wilson's Deft Touch Is the Difference

Last week, I detailed why the Steelers decided to bench Justin Fields and give Wilson playing time. The short explanation: Fields has better physical tools, but his decision-making lacks the nuance that can elevate the offense--something Wilson has proven he had for years before the Denver Debacle. 

Wilson wasn't sharp for most of his debut against the Jets, but his moon balls in the vertical game were good enough for George Pickens and Ben Freiermuth to elevate their potential as big-play factors.

Wilson may no longer have the mobility he had in Seattle, but he's a better pocket player than Fields, which makes the passing game more dangerous. He'll utilize more of the Steelers' weapons, keep the playbook open with better down-and-distance situations, and give the defense more opportunities to play with leads. 

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5. How the Packers Limited C.J. Stroud

Entering Week 7, C.J. Stroud averaged 17.1 fantasy points per week. After facing the Packers, that average is now 15.4. How did Green Bay limit Stroud to a 10/21, 86-yard performance? 

Unblocked pressure. Some of that unblocked pressure was due to unforced errors from the Texans' offensive line. Houston right tackle Tytus Howard fell on a play and whiffed on another. There were also missed assignments, thanks to the confusion the Packers created with Houston's assignments. 

The greatest source of confusion was arguably Green Bay's cross-blitzing inside linebackers. 

If we see Stroud's numbers endure a midseason slump, the first place I'd look is pressure--specifically double A-Gap pressure with cross-blitzes designed to confuse the Texans' line. Even so, what should scare Texans' opponents is that despite the offensive line's performance in the passing game, Houston was still in this game to the end, thanks to the line's work with opening craters for Joe Mixon. 

6. Jared Goff's Weakness Vs. the Blitz Was Fake News

The football public nailed Goff's coffin shut as a career starter when Goff was a Ram facing Robert Flores' blitz-happy Dolphins offense. Football analysts and fans pronounced Goff's promise dead because he was bad against pressure. 

They cited the data but didn't understand the cause. 

Sean McVay inherited a first-round pick on a bad team whose college offense was not remotely as complex as a full-blown West Coast Offense (WCO). As QB coach Will Hewlett described to me years ago, learning the WCO is like learning Chinese as an English speaker.

Charged with making his first head coaching gig work with a quarterback he didn't pick and paired with an offense that truly needed a veteran to run to its fullest, McVay took a novel approach. He played Cyrano de Bergerac, making late calls in Goff's ear. 

This worked early on but McVay never weaned Goff from this setup. The Rams were too good, McVay was likely forced to make it work with Goff, and because he was a requirement of the job, McVay never wanted Goff. The coach scapegoated Goff at the first opportunity. 

When Dan Campbell got Goff in the Stafford trade, they cut the puppet strings that McVay used, which eventually restricted the first-round pick's growth. The Lions staff threw everything at Goff and expected him to deliver or fail. To their surprise, Goff's reputation as a McVay puppet was an inaccurate characterization of the quarterback's potential. 

If you saw Goff at Cal, you knew the quarterback possessed excellent pocket management against pressure. If you watched Goff in L.A. instead of leaning on the pacifier of the data to tell you a limited story, you also knew there was more to his game against pressure. 

The Lions' offensive is excellent, but it doesn't mean they are disguising a weakness of Goff's. 

Team fit is a massive part of player development. Sean McVay saw Goff as a misfit who was going to slow down his scheme and wasn't open to growth--and we know West Coast coaches tend to be in love with their schemes ahead of players. Dan Campbell was open to what Goff was and could become. 

7. Is Dalton Kincaid Finally Poised for Fantasy Lift-Off?

We've had our share of false starts in this department, but I have renewed optimism. Amari Cooper gives Buffalo an every-route option who can beat anyone anywhere on the field. This will make it more difficult for opponents to collapse coverage on Kincaid. 

Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir have also proven capable big-play options when used to their strengths. When the Bills figure out they can use two of these three receivers to create ideal one-on-one matchups for Kincaid, things will be more fun for fantasy GMs. 

Well, well, well...

The Bills can also place Cooper on the same side as Kincaid and run off the ancillary coverage that would normally collapse on the tight end. 

If you find an opportunity to get Kincaid at a discount, I'd take it. He might benefit as much as anyone from Cooper's arrival. 

8. Bijan Robinson's Clinic vs. Penetration

Seattle has a generous rush defense. It didn't stop them from getting penetration into the Falcons' backfield. It also didn't stop Robinson. 

Good running backs mitigate losses. Bad defenses lack gap discipline. Tyrone Tracy Jr. is promising, but he looked like a 10-year vet against this Seattle unit. Start'em if you got'em against the Seahawks. 

9. Run Defenses to Remember

In addition to the Seahawks, the Saints, Patriots, and Rams look as bad as their stats indicate. 

All of these defenses have numerous plays where the offensive line looks like it has these fronts on casters. Sometimes, the data makes defenses look better or worse than their reality, especially this early in the season. These units aren't false data. 

10. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans Injury Repercussions

As of writing this minutes after the game, Godwin likely has a dislocated left ankle that will probably shelve him for the year. Mike Evans aggravated an already temperamental hamstring in the first half. 

Who is left? Who offers fantasy value? 

Cade Otton is an obvious answer. He showed his toughness and aerial adjustments at the catch point multiple times in this contest.

Otton has always been an underrated prospect who works well with scrambling quarterbacks. He and Mayfield have exhibited a strong rapport since Mayfield arrived in town. 

Look for Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer to earn more playing time outside. McMillan has the most growth potential and reliable hands of the two, but Palmer is the better athlete and more experienced right now. Neither is an ideal fit for the perimeter. 

I would expect Sterling Shepard to replace Godwin's role in the slot. He's steady with assignments but not nearly as versatile as Godwin. 

If I'm the Buccaneers and want a shot to win this division, I bring in Michael Thomas to play the Godwin role and hope Evans heals in time to still make a run for the playoffs. I bet Tampa brings in a free agent or two. Perhaps they trade for Mike Williams.  

If you have the luxury, add Thomas to see if he gets the call or hold onto Williams.

 

Photos provided by Imagn Images
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