The Top 10: Week 6

The Top 10 features Matt Waldman's film-driven analysis to help GMs manage their fantasy squads.

Matt Waldman's The Top 10: Week 6 Matt Waldman Published 10/08/2024

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The Top 10: The Cliff's Notes

  1. Brandon Aiyuk's Week 5 production indicates his prolonged preseason is over and he's ready to produce.
  2. Rachaad White vs. Bucky Irving shouldn't be a referendum on talent. They will remain a committee. 
  3. Joe Burrow's pass placement makes him one of the elite throwers in the NFL. 
  4. Darnell Mooney has Kirk Cousins' trust and should remain a viable fantasy starter. 
  5. James Conner's demise was greatly exaggerated--in 2020! Slower backs like Conner, David Montgomery, and Zack Moss continually prove the impatient wrong. 
  6. Darius Slayton was the latest Replacements nominee to deliver. Learn why. 
  7. Alec Pierce came up huge in the 4th quarterback -- why he's an ideal WR4 in fantasy lineups with upside.
  8. Tank Bigsby vs. Travis Etienne Jr. is the latest referendum on who is more talented. This, too, will remain a committee. 
  9. Aaron Jones' pass-catch prowess was on display Sunday but it was also on display at UTEP nearly a decade ago. 
  10. Tyrone Tracy Jr. looks promising, even if Seattle's defense was a mess. 

1. Brandon Aiyuk Is Heating Up

As Bob Harris noted in our latest episode of Feel It or F--It, the unofficial prolonged preseason otherwise known as September, is over and scoring came alive in Week 5. So did Aiyuk. The sloppy execution at the catch point disappeared and what was left over was the crisp route runner with excellent YAC skills. 

Brock Purdy's strength as a passer is his anticipation. Purdy's timing routes are the best on the 49ers. Expect Aiyuk to go on a run that vaults his fantasy value up the wide receiver rankings to no worse than top-15 value. 

2. Rachaad White vs. Bucky Irving Equals Foolishness

All month, there has been a referendum on which Buccaneers running back is more talented. The fantasy community has been dogpiling on White because Irving is the shiny new toy with quickness. 

Irving has executed well with the ball in his hands. It doesn't make him the superior talent. Much to the chagrin of media who have downplayed head coach Todd Bowles' assessment of his backfield, Bowles wasn't making empty excuses for White, who has dealt with more difficult scenarios when handed the ball. 

To disclose my frame of reference on White, I was not a big fan of his game when he arrived in the NFL. He was impatient and he didn't use his size to attack defenders where it was to his advantage to do so. 

Last year, White made strides in this area even if the rest of the Tampa Bay ground game didn't open big holes for him. His lack of sizzle with box score efficiencies led the public to sour on him despite showing improvement and maintaining fantasy starter production. 

After watching a few games this year, I'm in Bowles' camp: Irving has benefitted from well-executed plays from his teammates. White has not benefitted as often. 

It's not helping that the outcry for Irving could be influencing the playcalling to become counterintuitive. 

This may seem like a silly claim, but the media and public outcry have led to executives pressuring coaches to use players more often when the coaches knew better. Even if my claim isn't true, Irving is too small to win with power and White isn't the best option to make opponents miss in compressed spaces on an island as a receiver. 

White and Irving's strengths are complementary. Prepared to remain irritated with their outputs as a fantasy GM.

3. Joe Burrow's Pass Placement Is Elite

There are a lot of reasons Burrow is an elite quarterback with elite fantasy upside. The skill that stands out most for me is his pass placement. Burrow places the ball only where his receivers can make the play. 

Two of these throws that accounted for underneath coverage came in the confines of the red zone to Tee Higgins.

Burrow has always been unstoppable with sail routes. It's easy to see why Mike Gesicki was a free-agent target. 

This deep sideline route to Andrei Iosivas wasn't the only throw Burrow made with great placement with a defensive lineman delivering a gut shot. 

Maybe the Bengals still trade Higgins midseason. I'm beginning to believe Higgins will play out the year. Cincinnati has the weapons to make another run. This will help the fantasy fortunes of the entire Bengals offense. 

4. Darnell Mooney Has Kirk Cousins' Trust

Atlanta is using Drake London as a big slot and Mooney as an outside receiver. This is working well except when Cousins targets Mooney on back-shoulder fade routes at the boundary where Mooney's lack of size fails him. 

Mooney is a fine route runner and his quickness makes him a better option on timing routes as an outside receiver. London gets to be a bully inside. It's also clear that Cousins sees Mooney as a go-to option. 

Mooney was fantasy football's WR15 heading into Monday night. Expect Mooney to remain a top-24 producer this year. 

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5. The James Conner Archetype Gets Written Off Too Soon

In 2020, I created a film breakdown of Conner titled, "James Conner's Demise Is Greatly Exaggerated." This came after a Monday Night game where Benny Snell Jr. earned more carries and had a productive night at Conner's expense. 

Benny Snell Jr.. Let that sink in. 

Four years later, Conner has had three top-20 fantasy seasons in Arizona, including a top-5 fantasy campaign in 2021. He's currently RB11 in 2024. 

Why did fans, analysts, and teams write off Conner? Speed. It's the blind spot of most decent player analysis. 

Conner represents an archetype of running backs that have long and productive careers that teams and fans write off too soon. Slower backs whose games are dependent on decision-making, footwork, balance, and power are labeled "too slow" when they enter the league if they don't produce immediately. 

What's often happening is an acclimation to the speed and complexity of the game. This was the case with backs like LeGarrette Blount, David Montgomery, and Zack Moss. Conner had a good start to his career, delivering fantasy RB6 totals in 13 games during his second season and first as the starter. 

However, as the Steelers' offensive line faltered, the public conflated poor trench work with bad running back play. This happens a lot with slower backs. 

If you're seeking dented can candidates for dynasty leagues, the young slow-(ish) running back with draft capital in the first four rounds is a good place to start. 

6. Darius Slayton's Big Week

I'm promoting my Friday Replacements feature one more time because I believe it's a useful resource for late-week desperation plays and/or preemptive additions that will emerge later and you'll save bidding dollars. 

One of this week's Add-Now candidates was Slayton because Malik Nabers was out and the Seattle Seahawks' defense validated my concerns that they were a paper champion who hadn't faced anyone good until Monday night's Jared Goff Fest. 

Fast forward to Sunday and Slayton earned 122 yards and a score thanks to his route work, Seattle's coverage, and his toughness at the catch point. 

Nabers should return soon, but it's these types of calls that can help your team in a pinch.

7. Alec Pierce's Fantasy Value

Pierce did nothing for most of the Colts-Jaguars contest. Indianapolis is force-feeding Adonai Mitchell into the lineup and with mixed results. Mitchell made some plays as an underneath receiver. He also dropped a target and slipped twice while running routes. 

Mitchell is a work in progress. When the offense got through screwing around with Mitchell, they targeted Pierce late and often in the fourth quarter. 

This will be a Catch of the Year candidate. 

Pierce is fantasy WR21 heading into Monday night, averaging 28.3 yards per catch--10 yards better than any receiver in the league not named Jameson Williams (22.2). Pierce is capable of a broader role in the Colts' offense, but Indianapolis wants to use Mitchell in a role that could be part of a full-time opportunity for Pierce. 

Instead, Pierce is the vertical threat. Although a low-end fantasy WR2 in lineups based on his point totals, he's best considered a risky WR3 or ideal WR4 for fantasy GMs. That's true with Joe Flacco or with Anthony Richardson. 

8. Tank Bigsby vs. Travis Etienne Jr. 

I'll spoil it: Bigsby may be seeing an increase in usage, but that was the plan in Jacksonville. The Jaguars always wanted a Thunder and Lightning committee duo, but Bigsby proved overwhelmed as a rookie. 

This year, Bigsby looks like the same back I saw at Auburn -- a competent runner who is determined and finds cutbacks and bounces. He's a screen receiver with enough acceleration to flip the field through big creases. 

The only major difference from last year's debacle is that Bigsby is holding onto the football. Bigsby has made some nice plays, but he still has some decision-making immaturity to iron out. 

He's a lower-middle-class Kareem Hunt, which can be useful. He may even have an RB1-level ceiling if the Jaguars suddenly develop a great offensive line. Otherwise, he's a low-end RB2/RB3 type. 

Etienne has improved as a decision-maker over the years. He will always be the superior threat in open space. 

Bigsby is a match-up play against defenses that are not good at stopping the inside ground game. Weeks ago, I told you about the Colts' weaknesses with tackling inside running plays. 

Play Bigsby when a defense has a history of giving up fantasy points to inside runners. Play Etienne when the defense is stingy in this area. 

The Bears, Patriots, and Packers look like Bigsby games. The Eagles, Vikings, and Lions have a better chance to be Etienne games--or at worst, "not Bigsby" games. 

9. Aaron Jones' Great Catch

Jones suffered a hip injury and left the game not long after making a beautiful third-down catch on a wheel route. We'll see if he misses time. Even so, this is so good I had to show it. 

This isn't new. Seven years ago, I watched a similar play further downfield from Jones at UTEP. 

This college play may have been more impressive. 

10. Tyrone Tracy Jr. Impresses

Yes, Seattle's defense is a paper champion and their linebackers were way too reactive on Sunday, but it doesn't detract from Tracy showing progress as a decision-maker. The former wide receiver did his best work at Purdue as a space runner and with gap plays where he followed a puller.

This week, Tracy demonstrated good work with pressing creases tight and then finding the bounce or cutback on zone plays. This is progress from the rookie. 

If this progression continues, Tracy could be the most productive rookie running back this year. I'm not counting on it but until seeing what I saw yesterday, I was ruling it out. 

See you next week.

 

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