The Top 10: Week 4

The Top 10 features Matt Waldman's film-driven analysis to help GMs manage their fantasy squads.

Matt Waldman's The Top 10: Week 4 Matt Waldman Published 09/24/2024

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The Top 10: The Cliff's Notes

  1. Malik Nabers is easily the best rookie WR of this class. He might remain a top-5 fantasy WR. 
  2. Andy Dalton's quick reads, accuracy, and aggression could breathe life into the Panthers' offense as a good match-up against no worse than middling defenses. 
  3. Malik Willis has been working on his game. In Matt LaFleur's offense, he'll continue to have starter upside.
  4. Kyler Murray is a match-up starter with legitimate flaws. Against good defenses, he won't deliver as frequently as promised. 
  5. Marvin Harrison Jr. is a good fantasy option who will deliver against bad defenses, but he has flaws that keep him from the buzz the public wants to assign. 
  6. Calvin Austin III has the skills to become a low-end fantasy asset and is worth adding for a few weeks. 
  7. Dallas Goedert is serviceable as the primary option in Philadelphia until the starting WRs return. 
  8. Jauan Jennings is Brandon Marshall's plucky younger brother who feasted on an awful pass defense. He's a startable reserve but not likely to emerge as a fantasy star. 
  9. Jordan Mason mitigates losses. This is an underrated indicator of success for NFL RBs.
  10. 10 other things I noticed that might help you. 

1. Malik Nabers (And It Wasn't Close...)

Marvin Harrison Jr. had the buzz, the draft capital, the favor of the height/weight obsessives, and he has the superior quarterback. It doesn't matter, Nabers was better, is better, and when judging them on skill level, it's not that close.

It's not too early to say it, either. There's a significant gap between Nabers' technical and conceptual grasp of his position and the game compared to the rest of the wide receivers from this impressive draft class. The only way Marvin Harrison Jr. outperforms Nabers this year will be injury -- to Nabers or Daniel Jones and Drew Lock. 

Nabers wins the ball in one-on-one contested scenarios. He understands how to track, position himself, and attack the ball. 

Harrison is only good at it (see below) when his back is to the quarterback. Nabers is also a more versatile receiver based on where a team can align him and the variety of routes he can run. 

There are only three routes Harrison has run that Nabers hasn't thus far. There are five routes Nabers has run that Harrison hasn't.

Speaking of routes, the break with this route is as impressive as the acrobatic grab. 

Most impressive is Nabers' knowledge of the game within the game. On a direct snap inside the Cleveland five-yard-line, Nabers realized Cleveland strung out the perimeter run and threw the ball away rather than take a loss. 

Harrison is a terrific prospect and should remain a startable fantasy receiver this year. Nabers is on a different level. 

2. Andy Dalton Resuscitated the Panthers Offense

The Raiders' defense had gotten pressure early in the year, but Dalton carved up Vegas with quick, accurate, and aggressive passing. 

Bryce Young seemed too overwhelmed with details to make the leverage reads that we saw Dalton make with ease this weekend. 

This throw is one to remember, especially when I broach Kyler Murray's similar read that led to an interception in the red zone that could have made the Detroit game close. 

Will Dalton make the Panthers competitive every week? If the offensive line and receiving corps stay intact, yes. Will he riddle defenses for top-five production every week? Unlikely. 

Dalton has a top-15 fantasy QB upside that's likely in the bottom third of that range. 

3. Credit Malik Willis And Matt LaFleur 

The common theme you'll hear about this month is how Malik Willis and Sam Darnold got kicked out of the organizations that drafted them only to resurface as productive passers this month. The X's and O's silo of the Internet will use Willis and Darnold as poster boys for their agenda that a quality scheme can be the difference between success and failure. 

The X's and O's silo errs to the side of the scheme rather than the talent. They are also hyperfocused on the plays and not the technical and conceptual growth of players. 

I saw many an analyst on X ask why the Titans couldn't create a winning scheme for Willis as LaFleur did. I haven't seen these analysts address the craptastic offensive line and unrefined skill talent in Tennessee relative to Green Bay or Minnesota. 

The longer I do this, the more incredulous it is to me that the general population overlooks the value of trench play when analyzing football. If there's evidence that aliens exist and erase our memories of their interactions with us, it's the fact that football fans discuss the value of quarterbacks and running backs without acknowledging the gravity of good/bad trench play. 

Give a quarterback time in the pocket, and it's easier to see where that player's development is heading. In the case of Willis, it's clear he has been working at his craft since his seasons at Liberty. 

Green Bay created its share of designed runs, screens, and misdirection plays where the play design created one read and got that read open. These are the plays LaFleur deserves credit for putting Willis in a position to win as an athletic cog in the Packers' machine. 

Willis also displayed decision-making acumen, manipulation of defenders, and accuracy that quarterbacks use to create open targets that are separate from the play design. 

The first play involving the high safety is fundamental NFL quarterback play. The second is an intermediate-level play for an NFL passer. It's a sign of progress that Willis has been making behind the scenes. 

Willis isn't suddenly going to learn how to manipulate and read leverage with greater craft after 3-5 weeks in Green Bay. Listen to commentators on national networks, and you'd make the assumption this is what happened. 

This is where Willis deserves the credit for his work toward becoming a passer who can run plays that aren't designed to the nth degree and demand him to process multiple factors to make a throwing decision. Willis isn't all the way there. Here's a play where Willis isn't ready to make these reads. 

It will come as no surprise that Jordan Love gets his job back as soon as he's healthy enough to play. It is a pleasant surprise that the Packers can win with Willis and that has as much to do with Willis' independent study as it does LaFleur's game plans. 

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4. Kyler Murray: No Thanks vs. Quality Defenses

Murray had a terrific Week 2 against the Rams. During the past two weeks, the Rams have given up 39 completions on 51 attempts for 558 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. One of those teams was a 49ers offense that was missing Deebo Samuel Sr., George Kittle, and, apparently, a good portion of Brandon Aiyuk's game. 

Murray is a good fantasy quarterback. He's an overrated NFL quarterback. Overrated NFL quarterbacks are prone to mediocre outputs against good defenses, which makes them matchup-dependent for your fantasy teams. 

Murray may be the fantasy QB2 after three weeks, but he was QB15 against Detroit. Considering this mediocre output doesn't include Monday night's games, Murray could drop as far as QB19. He was QB12 in Week 1 against the Bills defense. 

As the QB15, Murray supported the No.17 and No.23 fantasy receivers -- Harrison and Michael Wilson. That's not bad, but Murray's decision-making places more stress on his teammates than necessary and it squanders more opportunities for teammates than it should. 

Murray will probably continue to help your fantasy team as a top-10 quarterback this year. Look for a great week against Washington's pitiful defense. San Francisco, Green Bay, Chicago, New York Jets, and Minnesota from Weeks 5-13 could be more like the Bills and Lions games. 

You can look forward to Week 17 against the soft underbelly of the Rams. Just make sure you have a second quarterback of value to help you get there.  

5. Marvin Harrison Jr. (Why Nabers Part II)

When asked to make these plays--plays DeAndre Hopkins, Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins, Mike Evans, Malik Nabers, and other top primary options make, this is where Harrison has technical lapses. He's great with his back to the quarterback. He needs work jumping back for the ball. 

If you can trade Harrison for Amon-Ra St. Brown, Davante Adams, or CeeDee Lamb, I'd do it. Otherwise, live with the highs and lows he'll provide this year. He'll win you games some weeks but was never Randy Moss, and I doubt he'll ever be. 

Nabers is Odell Beckham Jr in Beckham's prime. 

6. Calvin Austin III: What They Want from Wan'Dale 

Listening to draftniks talk about Wan'Dale Robinson a few years ago, all I could think was that they thought they were watching Kentucky when they were watching Austin at Memphis. Austin is faster, quicker, a better route runner, a better contest-catch option at the boundary, and more dangerous as a return specialist. 

Robinson is the fantasy WR32 after three weeks. Austin is the fantasy WR56. However, Austin earned 90 percent of his production this weekend with a 4-catch, 95-yard, 1-score performance against the Chargers. 

Austin displayed leaping ability at the boundary to earn less-than-accurate targets against coverage, return ability, and YAC prowess over the middle. 

Van Jefferson has been as unproductive as expected. Scotty Miller looked better in Jefferson's role. Even Tony Romo remarked that the Steelers have something with Austin. 

Romo, Mitchell Trubisky, and Russell Wilson have all been impressed with Austin as a player. While it's a risk to assume Arthur Smith will feature Austin going forward, Austin's speed, toughness for his size, and skill after the catch make him a player who has multiple paths to success. 

I also think that Austin will have equal to greater rapport with Wilson if Wilson finds himself back in the lineup. At this point, Austin is a worthwhile addition to the end of your fantasy rosters until an option with equal or greater production and clarity of opportunity comes along. 

7. Dallas Goedert: Temporary (But Useful) Buzz

Kellen Moore's tenure in Philadelphia had Eagles' beat writers touting Goedert as an emerging force in the passing offense. This week, Goedert made them look good if you don't look too hard at the absence of A.J. Brown and the eventual injury that knocked DeVonta Smith from the Saints' game. 

Goedert was the emergency primary option. It doesn't make him a bad player. The film--past and present -- speaks volumes about his capability when called upon. 

Goedert has good hands, enough quickness to work the seams, and enough long speed to win in the open field when he gains momentum with the help of schemed plays designed to free him. 

In the first quarter, Goedert also earned a deep post on a long-developing play-action pass where Jalen Hurts dropped to his right and threw back to the middle of the field. 

Consider Goedert the true No.3 in this offensive rotation behind Brown and Smith. He moves up the pecking order based on their absences. The Eagles lack a receiver who knows the offense and will usurp Goedert while these two are away from the lineup. 

As Jahan Dotson learns the offense, that may change. Saquon Barkley might be the biggest threat until then. 

8. Jauan Jennings: Two Things Can Be True

Jauan Jennings is a physical receiver who plays bigger than his size. He can make big plays in contested scenarios on jump balls and high-traffic zones. Truth. 

Jauan Jennings feasted on a Rams defense riddled with coverage issues. Also truth. 

9. Jordan Mason Is For Real

Good NFL running backs understand how to mitigate losses. That's one of the true indicators that a running back is a for-real starter-caliber option. 

Loss mitigation as a running back requires knowledge of the blocking scheme, management of game scenarios like a quarterback, efficient problem-solving, and the processing speed to identify unanticipated problems. Only then can we discuss the ingrained footwork and upper-body tactics to avoid contact. 

10. 10 Things...

These are notes that may or may not play out long-term. Consider them observations without enough visual data to fully confirm but may be worthwhile to you. 

  1. DeVonta Smith can't play the A.J. Brown role in this offense. They tried with him as a rookie. They tried with him against the Saints. He's not physical enough or as sharp as a route runner inside. 
  2. The Chargers lost Joey Bosa, Rashawn Slater, Joe Alt, and Justin Herbert against the Steelers. Hopefully, they return or J.K. Dobbins is in danger of losing his fantasy luster. 
  3. Cordarrelle Patterson closed out the Steelers-Chargers game with some powerful runs. I almost want to root for the Steelers to earn leads so I can see it every week. 
  4. The Saints exploited Eagles safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson on consecutive plays as both a run and pass defender, and it gave New Orleans a late lead. 
  5. Drake London and Kyle Pitts are in for a long year with Kurt Cousins targeting the middle of the field and showing no zip on intermediate boundary routes. 
  6. The Vikings' defense deserves credit for getting early pressure with 3-5 box defenders and depth with its safeties and linebackers to foil the Texans' passing game. 
  7. C.J. Stroud got greedy and passed up the few short routes available to him in the first half. He looked immature as a field general (for the first time in a while). 
  8. Add the Rams' pass defense to the Colts' interior run defense and the Cowboys' run defense as units to target when you need a desperation starter. 
  9. The Dolphins didn't give Skyler Thompson a lot of opportunities to let it rip. Most of the plays were schemed and Seattle pressure was ever-present. 
  10. The Rams zone coverage is that bad. 

Good luck!

 

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