The New Reality No.231: Projecting 2025 Breakout WRs and TEs

From dynasty team-building and player evaluations to NFL research and forecasting, Chad Parsons covers dynasty fantasy football's landscape in The New Reality.

Chad Parsons's The New Reality No.231: Projecting 2025 Breakout WRs and TEs Chad Parsons Published 12/16/2024

Identifying bounce-back or breakout players for the following season is a long-standing strategy to maximize roster value in the offseason. Here are my favorite bets for an uptick in 2025:

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RELATED: See Potential 2025 Breakout QBs and RBs here

Wide Receivers

Xavier Worthy, Kansas City

Why: Worthy has certainly not been on the 2023 Rashee Rice trajectory with his per-route efficiency this season as a rookie. However, Round 1 pedigree, elite speed, and a connection to Patrick Mahomes II and Andy Reid for the long-term bode well to have an extended look for a rise. His 1.12 yards per route run (YPRR) on the season is a tepid figure for an NFL wide receiver, but not in the 'cross him off the list' zone for a rookie threshold. The past five games have Worthy with a higher YPRR each week than his season-long average. In short, Worthy is improving with more playing time. Of Worthy's six games on the season with at least four receptions, five of them have come in the past five weeks. The 2025 depth chart is very much unsettled with DeAndre Hopkins and JuJu Smith-Schuster likely 2024 stopgap options and Rashee Rice returning from injury next season.

A few December dynasty trades (Superflex) of note for Worthy include:

Keon Coleman, Buffalo

Why: Keon Coleman was rising in Week 7/8 before an injury kept him off the field until Week 15. This past week's return to the lineup resulted in a splash 64-yard reception but no further involvement. The attachment to Josh Allen cannot be understated for Coleman's future development. The floor outcome projects as Gabriel Davis' role in the offense in previous years - a downfield maven with pop potential any week. Davis was never higher than 18% target per route run, but produced 27 touchdowns over four seasons and more than 15 yards per catch each year. Coleman is trending towards a higher version of Davis with his rookie season of 2.00 YPRR (through Week 15) and 16% TPRR with his 20.9 yards per catch. The fear is Coleman is just a cog in the passing game by committee for Buffalo with Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir for 2025 plus a notable addition via free agency or the NFL Draft with no commanding first option within the offense.

A few December dynasty trades (Superflex) of note for Coleman include:

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Tight Ends

Ben Sinnott, Washington

Why: Ben Sinnott had the categorical redshirt rookie season. After a promising pre-draft process produced a 93% Athleticism Score and 86% Overall Score, Sinnott surged to the No.53 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the second tight end off the board after Brock Bowers. Sinnott has yet to run 100 routes in his fledgling NFL career, however, with Zach Ertz the clear starter and John Bates in the mix as well. Ertz is a slated free agent (and deep into his 30s) in the offseason and merely a baseline player at this stage of his career. Tight ends are historically slow starters and Sinnott is a classic example of trusting the profile and pedigree into Year 2. Trey McBride was a recent in 2022 as a rookie stuck behind, coincidently, Zach Ertz and posting an invisible rookie season before breaking out in Year 2.

A few December dynasty trades of note for Sinnott include:

Ja'Tavion Sanders, Carolina

Why: Ja'Tavion Sanders was widely viewed as a Round 2 prospect for the initial months of the NFL Draft process in 2024. A 4.69 40-time and shoulder-shrug 53% Athleticism Score (in my model) dipped the productive college tight end to the initial picks of Round 4. That said, only Brock Bowers had a higher Production Score than Sanders of the drafted tight ends and Sanders' age (21.5 years old) for Week 1 is ideal within the model's predictive traits. Fast-forward to Sanders' rookie season and he has posted a respectable 1.20 yards per route run. This is with a revolving door at quarterback early in the season and not being a full-time starter for many of the games. Sanders is running more than half of his routes out of the slot (a good sign for tight ends) and forcing missed tackles at an above-average rate. Expect Sanders to be the Week 1 starter in 2025 (as a 22-year-old) and build on an encouraging-on-a-small-sample-size 2024 season.

A few December dynasty trades (Superflex) of note for Sanders include:

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