The 2025 NFL free-agent class is loaded with big names at the skill positions. Here is a look at the quarterbacks potentially on the move and the dynasty impact of their free-agent status.
Last year and in general with the biggest names in free agency, most returned to their incumbent team. Quarterback is a bit of a different animal than the other skill positions as notable players rarely see true free agency with the franchise tag as a significant weapon to retain and continue to work a deal with the league's most important position.
QUARTERBACKS
Tier 1
All three represent Week 1 options for teams. Sam Darnold is in the Baker Mayfield zone of earning a new contract and potentially with Minnesota, depending on how the season concludes. At a minimum, Darnold will have multi-year contract allegiance within his options in the offseason with the current Spotrac estimate as four years and $133 million. If adding to Darnold in the dynasty trade market, a return of a 1st or 2nd++ is within reach.
While Justin Fields is far from an ideal starting NFL quarterback, he did show progress this season with Pittsburgh and offers elite rushing upside. Fields is a candidate to see a one-year prove-it deal a la Sam Darnold in 2025 to earn or compete for a starting role.
Russell Wilson was house money this season for the Steelers, considering Denver was picking up the check on Wilson's massive salary, as only $1.2 million was on the hook for Pittsburgh. Wilson has played better than the "pitchforks" feel to run Wilson out of Seattle and especially Denver. Wilson can still be a stopgap option for a team developing a younger option, even for multiple years. At most, Wilson is trading for a future 2nd in Superflex dynasty leagues and sometimes for a 3rd+.
Tier 2
Jameis Winston and Joe Flacco are still auditioning for 2025 roles this season. Winston's profile has been the same in 2024 as previously: a high-variance bold thrower who can single-handedly win or lose a game, depending on the week. Flacco has landed opportune QB2 spots in back-to-back seasons behind Deshaun Watson and now Anthony Richardson to fuel a string of starts in 2023 and 2024. Flacco's age (he will be 40 years old in 2025) makes him a planned backup to a younger option as the best case for the offseason outcome. Drew Lock has only 794 attempts in his NFL career and fewer than 100 since 2021. With Daniels Jones' contract ramifications with an injury, Lock will likely see starts to close this season as an audition for future opportunities.
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Best of the Rest
While this subset has plenty of stopgap potential among the veterans, in addition to primary backup roles, for 2025, Trey Lance and Zach Wilson stand out with the highest untapped upside. The recent trend is for high-pedigreed quarterbacks to be benched and labeled busts far earlier than years ago. Geno Smith and Sam Darnold are prime examples of success, to varying degrees, with an extended opportunity beyond their first starting forrays. Lance has a mere 102 pass attempts in the NFL and played only one full season in college. Since 17 years old, Lance has very few actual game reps compared to typical prospects and NFL quarterbacks. To a lesser degree, Zach Wilson is in a similar boat. Wilson has nearly 1,000 NFL passes, but like Sam Darnold, Wilson was in a poor situation and still a reclamation project.
Potential Cuts, Restructures, or Retirements
Of this list, the most likely to be restructured or (more likely) moved on from is Daniel Jones. With a cap hit of more than $40 million in 2025, around half is a dead cap charge. Jones has yet to live up to his new contract and moving on by 2026 is a near-certainty based on his trajectory.
Aaron Rodgers has one year left on his contract. More than a cut candidate, Rodgers and the Jets' out is a retirement of Rodgers before his age 42 season in 2025.
Geno Smith's cap hit is $38 million next year with savings of $25 million if Seattle moves on. It is unlikely considering Smith's level of play and palatable cost in the final year of his contract, but a contract possibility nonetheless.
Derek Carr has a massive $51 million cap hit in 2025. The problem is all but one million is dead cap if the Saints move on from Carr. Unlikely based on the numbers but not impossible if the Saints (finally) turn the page to retool their franchise accounting instead of kicking the can down the road.
Like Geno Smith, Gardner Minshew II is at an affordable number for his utility level at $14 million in 2025. The Raiders would save roughly half if moving on from Minshew.
Malik Willis has no dead cap left on his rookie contract which Green Bay inherited with the trade from Tennessee. With multiple quality starts (and wins) already for the Packers, there is minimal reason to think Willis is moved in the offseason other than if Green Bay parlays Willis into a trade profit for a team believing Willis is their potential starter.
Bryce Young makes the least contractual sense to change teams in the offseason, considering his dead cap is $22 million and his 2025 cap hit is $10 million. Carolina wiping their hands of the former 1.01 draft pick is the lone motivation. The Panthers could make a clean break with Young returning something in the trade market and with Andy Dalton departing in free agency from their 2024 incumbents.
To address the massive contract of Deshaun Watson, his dead cap figures for the next two seasons, especially if moved in the 2025 offseason, have franchise-crippling implications for the Browns. Most resources have Watson as a likely hemorrhaging cut in 2026 as Cleveland reworks their team, but this would be essentially impossible to execute in 2025.
POTENTIAL INCUMBENT BENEFACTORS
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