Michael Penix Jr. and Kirk Cousins were the subjects of my second Gut Check of the 2024 season. Now, they are the subjects of the penultimate Gut Check of this fantasy campaign.
Symmetry is a beautiful thing.
So is an argument with enough signal to cut through the deafening outrage of media and fans over the selection of Penix. Let's revisit the opening 10 paragraphs from the June 26th edition of the Gut Check.
Picking Michael Penix Jr. Was A Good Decision
The public reaction to the Falcons selecting Michael Penix Jr sixth overall is indicative of the broad misunderstandings that exist with the evaluation of the position, the valuation for the team, and the opening strategy for a strong development plan.
Much of the outrage has to do with the public sentiment that Michael Penix Jr. isn't as good as the other passers drafted within the same range. This is a sentiment they're parroting from analysts who may not have the evaluation experience, a well-defined process, and/or a grasp of how to chart accuracy at the position.
I'll share Michael Penix Jr.'s scouting report from the 2024 Rookie Scouting Portfolio in this article. You'll see why many of the public's assertions are problematic.
Let's put this part of the debate aside. Who is right or wrong about Michael Penix Jr.'s talent is the least important issue surrounding Atlanta's decision to select a quarterback. It's more important to explain why Atlanta drafting a first-round quarterback after paying Kirk Cousins a significant amount of guaranteed money on a four-year deal is a much better decision than most realize.
The Kirk Cousins Contract: Not A Strong Argument Against Michael Penix Jr.
Let's begin with the money. The collective outrage over the financials with quarterback salaries is always rooted in ignorance. Cousins earns a lot of his money up-front because they are paying him to win now.
This deal is essentially structured for a two-year window of relevancy. By year three, there will be no guaranteed money left on Cousins' contract. Atlanta can roll with Michael Penix Jr. as the starter and get rid of Cousins without significant financial impact. At that point, Cousins will be 38 going on 39 with the 2026 season on the horizon. The contract is a non-issue.
Cousins' Injury Generates A Bigger Need for Michael Penix Jr. Than Portrayed
Speaking of Cousins, his initial reaction to Michael Penix Jr.'s selection was ill-advised on multiple levels. During the same conversation, Cousins told the media he was stunned and thought the pick wasn't a good use of draft capital to help the team win now, but he also said that he can only run in a straight line after his Achilles surgery.
Cousins expects to regain the tendon and muscle strength to maneuver a pocket, but that's an estimation. Achilles recoveries for a quarterback who will be 36 years old when the season begins have more unknowns than they do for a 24-year-old athlete.
Even if Cousins can maneuver a pocket, Atlanta could call on Michael Penix Jr. much earlier if Cousins can't drive off that injured leg and deliver the necessary torque for velocity and placement with his timing routes in the intermediate range of the field. My Going Deep podcast co-host, Brandon Angelo, a trainer of professional athletes, made this salient point about Cousins this spring.
Cousins may be healthy enough to maneuver the field but not healthy enough to perform at the capacity Atlanta expected. This could make Michael Penix Jr. a necessary start. Tony Pollard's 2023 campaign is the most prominent example of what happens all the time in the NFL.
Thanks for Making My Point, Kirk Cousins
I'm more critical of Cousins than most. Some of my cohorts admire his leadership based on the Netflix documentary on quarterbacks. From the optics of an edited television series, Cousins looks like an excellent on-field leader, a beloved teammate, and -- pre-injury -- a quarterback at the top of his game.
Much of this is true. It's also true that Cousins failed one aspect of his leadership test as the player figurehead of his new organization when Atlanta selected Penix in April.
Telling the media that you're stunned about the pick and criticizing its utility, given his age and injury, was a stunning lack of self-awareness. It was also dysfunctional behavior for a leader.
We all make mistakes. I've made my share in leadership roles. Many 35-year-old men lack the wisdom and leadership skills to handle what unfolded in April.
It wasn't Cousins' job to give his opinion. He inherently believed it was. It is a privileged position that he never earned. This happens a lot.
There's a difference between leading an offense on the field and leading an organization off it. Cousins isn't the GM, the director of scouting, or the president of the franchise. I would bet that the Falcons brass didn't think they'd have to remind Cousins of that before the draft.
I will bet that Arthur Blank has a meeting with all of his players next April to impart the following message. Unless your titles are GM, director of scouting, or president, then any criticism about the draft isn't your job. Do your job only.
Kirk Cousins may have equity in the eyes of fans and media as a "proven producer," but the reality of the situation is much different. Atlanta was taking a gamble on an aging Cousins returning to form from a difficult injury.
Players lose equity after a difficult injury. Cousins didn't see it that way. The organization did, which is why it selected a young quarterback.
Instead of keeping his head down and his mouth shut and proving that he would regain the athletic ability to move and throw the ball with velocity, Cousins questioned his new employer in public and in an area that's not his specialty.
Fast-forward to the present, and we see that Atlanta had to manufacture a scheme that worked around Cousins' post-injury limitations. Once opposing defenses learned what Cousins could and couldn't do post-injury, the jig was up.
There was too much Cousins could no longer do. It allowed opposing defenses to put the squeeze on him and bait him into mistakes.
Now it's Week 16, Atlanta has a 7-7 record, a playoff berth is still possible, and they have three lowly defenses -- the Giants, the Commanders (worse than you may realize), and the Panthers -- left on the schedule. They also have an aging veteran quarterback who isn't physically the same.
Cousins has thrown nine interceptions and one touchdown in the past five games. According to ESPN, the last time a quarterback sunk this low was Brett Favre in 2005. At least Favre still had throwing velocity and mobility.
The coaching staff has seen enough to know Cousins can't get the job done. Would another defensive lineman or safety have made the difference in Atlanta's fortunes? No.
Who needs a quarterback now, Cousins?
Two things about leading in the NFL: 1) You lead by example. 2) A significant injury greatly diminishes, if not wipes out, any equity you've accumulated from the past to talk about matters outside your on-field purview.
Cousins' legacy embodies a lot of positives. He has a history of being a good NFL starter. He also believed he could comment on player-personnel decisions before he proved he was healthy enough to lead a team.
Cousins got paid like a starter before he proved he could perform like one. It's stunning to me that he would share his thoughts on the Penix selection when, during the same interview, he told the media that he still couldn't do anything athletically beyond running in a straight line. Prove you've still got it before questioning your new organization's decisions.
A lot of people will disagree. They don't think Cousins did anything wrong. Many would have done the same in their day-to-day work lives and would have believed it was acceptable.
It strikes a nerve with them that Cousins would be called out in this fashion. The truth is that Cousins spoke out of turn. He was getting paid to prove that he'd earn that money. He got the opportunity to get that money based on his past performance, but his injury made it a significant gamble.
The fact Cousins didn't see the situation this way and chose to behave as if he didn't have a lot more to prove was the embodiment of entitlement.
Criticize Atlanta for the risk of taking Cousins, but not for drafting a quarterback. And siding with Cousins for his behavior? While not a cardinal sin, Cousins' behavior serves as a reflection of how a lot of society thinks it's ok to do what we did and then be genuinely confused that he'd warrant criticism for it.
Rant over.
What Should We Expect from Penix?
You have access to the full scouting report. No need to get into those weeds here. Let's keep it simple.
More Big Plays
Penix was the best boundary thrower of fades (front and back-shoulder), deep outs, go routes, and comebacks in this draft class. His arm talent is on par with Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels, and his placement at the boundary is even better.
Expect Penix to deliver more timing throws to the boundary and leverage his receivers' size and aerial abilities. Drake London and Kyle Pitts should earn more big plays on sail/corner routes and fades that originate from the slot. London and Mooney will see more timing routes 15-20 yards downfield that break to the boundary.
More Touchdowns
Thanks to Cousins' performance, it's a low bar. Still, opposing defenses don't have a book built on Penix and it means they will use more base coverage that lacks specialized game-planning to stop Penix.
The Giants, Commanders, and Panthers will do what most defenses do with rookies--they'll try to confuse them with disguised drops with pre-snap indications of blitzes and occasional heavy pressure. The Commanders will provide a stiffer test than the Giants and Panthers, but the quarterbacks Washington has faced make their defense a statistical paper champion:
- Daniel Jones (twice)
- Kyler Murray
- Deshaun Watson
- Andy Dalton
- Caleb Williams saddled with Shane Waldron
- Will Levis
- A pair of Saints backups
- Cooper Rush
These 9 quarterbacks combined for 12 touchdowns. On the flip side, the quintet of Baker Mayfield, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson, and Jalen Hurts combined for 10 scores.
We're not expecting Penix to come off the bench like rookie Patrick Mahomes II against Denver at season's end and have John Elway telling his staff, "He's going to be a problem." We should expect Penix to throw 2-4 touchdowns over the next two weeks.
More Interceptions
More interceptions than Cousins? No. More interceptions in the sense of more mistakes for Atlanta quarterbacks.
Penix will likely have 1-3 interceptions in at least one of these games. It's his first pair of starts, and defenses are in end-of-season form.
Penix will get fooled by more pre-snap/post-snap looks than a veteran passer. He won't always be on the same page with reading coverage as his receivers. He'll likely be too aggressive in areas of the game where he should manage the offense conservatively.
His receivers may also create turnovers for what I'm about to share below.
More Tipped and Dropped Passes
Atlanta's receivers have been playing 15 weeks with a noodle-armed quarterback. They've also been playing with a right-handed, noodle-armed quarterback.
Now, they're about to work with a laser-armed passer who is left-handed. The 49ers receivers often disclosed the initial difficulty with the team switching from Joe Montana to Steve Young.
When the ball spins in the opposite direction, it requires some acclimation. The same is true with the difference in timing and velocity.
Yes, these guys are pros, but pros aren't perfect and these differences will manifest on the field.
More Off-Script Plays
The hidden game with Penix is his mobility. He's a throw-first quarterback who prefers to work within the pocket. He's also a better athlete than advertised, and he can earn chunk plays with his legs.
He's a 4.45-second athlete in the 40-yard dash with a 39-inch vertical jump. He only had 134 rushing attempts in 48 games at Indiana and Washington, but when he needs to run, he can turn the corner on defenders and move the chains.
When Penix gets outside the pocket, he'll be looking for his receivers, and some of his most impressive throws up the boundary come when he's on the move. London, Pitts, Mooney, and Ray-Ray McCloud III are about to learn that the play ends a lot later with Penix than Cousins.
More Fumbles
Rookies must recalibrate their pocket clock and play clock. The longer they extend plays, the more at risk they are for turning over the ball from NFL defenders who are sharp-shooters when it comes to locating hand punching the ball loose.
More Passing Yards
Expect a higher yardage yield per attempt and more yardage earned. The Commanders and Panthers will likely try to stop the run and make Penix prove he can lead Atlanta through the air.
Neither team is good at stopping the run this year, but expect them to overcompensate in the box and give the Falcons passing game golden opportunities for one-on-one matchups that can yield big plays.
Fantasy Starts/Sits: Atlanta
Start: RB Bijan Robinson
The Giants, Commanders, and Panthers may try to stop the run, but it has been the best thing Atlanta has done on offense. Even if they mitigate the run, Robinson's work as a receiver still makes him a strong all-around threat as a fantasy starter. Penix may go downfield more often than Cousins, but he'll still have designed plays targeting Robinson as a receiver.
Desperation Flex: RB Tyler Allgeier
Allgeier has been good for 8-10 touches per game. If Atlanta gets ahead or keeps each game a contest, Allgeier will get his. He gives you a puncher's chance of earning a red-zone score or a chunk gain. He also could factor more in Weeks 17-18 if Atlanta is out of playoff contention.
Boom-Bust Start: TE Kyle Pitts
The Panthers give up the most fantasy points to tight ends in fantasy football. The Commanders are 10th on the generosity scale.
Pitts' best weeks came against the Buccaneers, Panthers, and Seahawks between Weeks 5-8 this year.
Kyle Pitts' Peak Fantasy Weeks (Targets-Receptions-Catches-TDs)
- Buccaneers Week 5: 8-7-88-0
- Carolina Week 6: 5-3-70-0
- Seattle Week 7: 9-7-65-0
- Buccaneers Week 8: 4-91-2
These weeks corresponded with Cousins pushing himself physically to deliver more throws downfield. Unfortunately, his body hasn't recovered sufficiently to continue doing the job.
Penix won't have this issue. There's always a risk that Penix and Pitts aren't on the same page, but Pitts' length, side, and aerial artistry on routes that begin inside and end at the boundary match Penix's strengths and tendencies from his college tape.
Start: WR Drake London
The tight end is a rookie quarterback's best friend in football cliche land. As we know, cliches have a basis in truth. Pitts is technically a tight end, but his role is a little different than what fits for football cliche land.
Pitts splits that role with London as the big slot. Both players will run those inside-out routes to the boundary where they can impose their will with their size, length, and aerial artistry.
If Penix hits on all cylinders, both London and Pitts will get fed enough to satiate fantasy GMs. Otherwise, expect London to earn more of these targets and serve as the most reliable option.
Boom-Bust Flex: WR Darnell Mooney
Mooney's foot and Achilles injuries could be lingering issues despite Atlanta removing him from the injury report before the Raiders game -- a game where he got one target.
Mooney has been a boom-bust option for fantasy GMs all year with an equal number of startable and forgettable games in PPR formats. Only two of Mooney's startable weeks have come against quality defenses.
I'd look elsewhere for a receiver this week against the Giants. Mooney is at his best with timing routes. Penix and Mooney's timing may not be there in Penix's first start.
With a game and 2-3 weeks of practice for the Commanders and Panthers, expect the timing to be marginally better. Mooney is a solid consideration for lineups with 3-4 receivers if the foot injury isn't a lingering concern.
Bench (but Monitor) PPR Flex: WR Ray-Ray McCloud III
McCloud will serve as "the right answer" for many of the defensive looks thrown at Penix. He'll be the appropriate check-down, hot receiver against blitzes, and second-read running wide-open with specific coverage looks.
His value will correlate to how fast Penix can process information during his initial NFL starts. If these were the sole opportunities we'd see for McCloud, I'd recommend you bench him in leagues that start 3-5 receivers.
That's still my base recommendation. However, if you need to gamble on a receiver in two weeks against the Commanders, McCloud isn't a bad one.
Washington's biggest weakness in the passing game is receivers who do damage after the catch in the middle of the field. Chris Godwin, Malik Nabers, Ja'Marr Chase, Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, and A.J. Brown all do a lot of work in the middle of the field. They had strong games against Washington.
McCloud is none of those guys in terms of his role or talent. He is comparable to Wan'Dale Robinson, Greg Dortch, Jalen Brooks, and Tyler Boyd. These five collectively averaged 11 yards per play against Washington.
If Atlanta runs more schemed plays for McCloud in this game, he could give you a range of 8-12 points as a PPR option. That's an outcome for a desperation flex that you can live with.
The problem with McCloud is that much of what is schemed for him will likely overlap with what's schemed for Robinson and London, diluting his volume.
If Atlanta is eliminated from contention after Week 16, McCloud could become a bigger factor if the Falcons rest London, Mooney, and Pitts.
Monitor: WR KhaDarel Hodge and WR Casey Washington
Sometimes, it's valuable to consider the most startable talent earning second-team looks all year with the reserve quarterback. Hodge and rookie Casey Washington -- could be those players.
Washington is the better aerial artist on plays where Penix excels. Hodge has the most experience and offers big-play speed.
I wouldn't add either of these receivers this week unless you have a large roster and your waiver wire doesn't have any regular contributors to a starting lineup. During the next two weeks? If Atlanta is out of contention and decides to rest its starting receivers, both could emerge as flex plays with starter ceilings.
Boom-Bust SuperFlex Start/Desperation 1-QB Start: QB Michael Penix Jr.
The defensive matchups are good. The experience is non-existent. The learning curve for his receivers could be palpable.
Still, Penix has All-Pro arm talent and starter athletic ability. These two traits expand the offense, whereas Cousins' diminished physical skills contracted it.
This could catch defenses off-guard (yes, they know Penix is a better athlete, but how it manifests on the field is a different story, schematically) and lead to the potential for starter outputs from Penix.
Good luck!
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