The Gut Check No. 641: Drake Maye's Fantasy Future

Matt Waldman reviews Drake Maye's pre-draft scouting report and the rookie film to forecast Maye's fantasy future.

Matt Waldman's The Gut Check No. 641: Drake Maye's Fantasy Future Matt Waldman Published 12/04/2024

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Drake Maye has a shot to become a good NFL quarterback. That was my analysis pre-draft. It's still my analysis after studying his rookie tape. 

The big question remains: Do I think he'll do it? 

The Data Traces A Picture

With nine NFL starts in the books, Maye ranks as QB19 in fantasy formats since Week 4. His 11 passing TDs rank 17th. 

Maye's 6.72 yards per attempt is 34th. His eight interceptions? They're tied for the third-highest total in the league during this stretch. 

His 67.9 percent completion rate is 10th, and his 333 rushing yards since Week 4 ranks fourth among passers. 

Add the film to these stats, and here's how I'd summarize Maye's rookie performance: There are promising moments, but work to do that still could dramatically tip the scales in either direction. 

The Film Adds and Blends Detail and Color

Defenses are playing a lot of umbrella coverages against Maye. They've been betting that they can get to Maye in the pocket before he can find an open receiver that gets behind coverage. 

Opponents would rather make Maye beat them with a lot of short passing. They believe the longer the drive, the more likely Maye and the offense will commit fatal errors -- sacks, fumbles, interceptions, and turnovers on downs -- and non-fatal errors -- throwaways, incomplete passes, and penalties. 

When defenses abandon Cover 4, Cover 6, and Cover 2 against the Patriots, they've succeeded with disguised blitzes with man coverage behind the pressure. Maye has feasted as a runner, but his 25 sacks -- among the top half of sacked quarterbacks in the league after just nine games -- is the famine. 

Maye has been at his best making quick decisions off two-man route combinations where he can read the position of 1-2 defenders and get the ball out fast. Opponents have learned from the film that they don't want to give Maye too many shots up the boundary. 

Maye has also made highlight-worthy plays when he identifies pressure, gets outside the pocket, and finds an open receiver. Pressure is the ultimate factor with Maye at this point in his career. 

If he can identify it, get outside of it, or break the pocket, he can generate chunk plays with his arm and chain-moving gains with his legs. When he's late to identify pressure and reactive to it, he's mistake-prone. 

Because it's best to wait at least 15-17 games -- and as many as 18-30 games -- with rookie quarterbacks, I see meaningful growth in Maye's game, but he still has important work ahead. Some of the issues are difficult to learn at this point in his development. 

The Pre-Draft Scouting Report

My Rookie Scouting Portfolio profile on Maye included a grade of 76.625 -- a contributor who can start in a limited role, but with diminishing returns beyond that scope. From what we've seen thus far statistically, in the win-loss column, and on film, that grade appears accurate. 

Let's dig deeper into Maye's report with the RSP's Elevator Pitch: 

Elevator Pitch: For at least the past year, Maye has been widely regarded as one of the top two prospects in this quarterback class. He is the quintessential Robo-QB, I broached in my scouting report on Patrick Mahomes: A “safe” technically sound athlete that looks like a prospect who rolled off an assembly line that checks the easy-to-define boxes:

  • Prominent Division-I program.
  • Prolific yardage and scoring.
  • Requisite completion percentage.
  • Big frame.
  • Requisite height.
  • Big arm.

These are all positives for sure, but there are facets of quarterbacking that NFL decision-makers believe will develop with experience:

  • Situational game management.
  • Pinpoint placement and accuracy that completion percentage doesn’t track.
  • Processing coverage accurately and confidently.
  • Late pre-snap/early post-snap diagnosis.
  • Sensing pressure.
  • Efficient pocket management.

If a quarterback possesses some degree of these skills when they enter the league, there’s potential for them to refine their as a pro and fulfill the potential that NFL decision-makers see. About half of the Robo-QBs who earn first-round picks do not possess enough of these skills in great enough quantity, and they fail to develop into franchise starters.

If you go by List No.1, Maye fits the pre-draft billing. If you go by List No.2, Maye has work ahead, and there are few guarantees that he’ll develop into a franchise starter despite the likelihood of earning early opportunities to prove that he can.

Maye’s size, toughness in the pocket, big arm, and mobility show up prominently on the tape. Just as Baker Mayfield’s completion percentage at Oklahoma exemplified why Accuracy Is a Deceptive Category because a slow or indecisive processor of information isn’t as prominent in the college game, Maye’s flaws with pocket management, reading coverage, and reticence to take the easy solutions will rear their ugly heads to greater effect in the NFL.

To add one more issue to the list, Maye’s accuracy isn’t as strong as his completion percentage, especially his on-platform accuracy without pressure as a factor. This accounts for most of a quarterback’s throws.

As it stands entering the draft, Maye’s tape reveals a quarterback who can contribute if needed but is closer to the reserve tier than the rotational starter tier. Because Maye doesn’t see the field as well as some think, generates unnecessary pressure in the pocket, and has technique lapses that hinder his accuracy, he’s not well-suited for a rebuilding organization.

Bad teams rarely rebuild fast enough to provide a quarterback with Maye’s issues with the essential building blocks for him to experience only the expected bumps along his road of development. Justin Fields is a great example of a Robo-QB prospect whose first team failed to provide consistent protection, veteran receivers who could make his job easier, and a well-conceived scheme tailored to his strengths while minimizing his weaknesses.

If Maye can refine his accuracy and improve his game management, he should become a contributor that a team will try to build around to make the most of his gifts to optimize his production potential. If Maye can improve his processing speed, confidence to act quickly on what he’s seeing, and/or improve his pocket management, he could reach the franchise-starter potential expected of him. These are difficult issues to address and it’s why Maye’s game has the greatest trap door of the top prospects.

Rookie Year vs. Scouting Report

I'm going to paraphrase excerpts from the rest of my scouting report on Maye. I'll use these excerpts to show where Maye has improved, how his baseline strengths look as a Patriot, and where he still has work to do. I've watched seven starts. I'm using videos from three games: Indianapolis, Miami, and Tennessee. 

 The Colts pass defense is middle of the road. The Dolphins and Titans are good units. 

While you'll see many of the same things from Maye against teams like the Rams -- I don't like using an undisciplined unit with a lot of mental breakdowns when I don't have to. 

Where Maye Looks Better

I'm seeing more check-downs in New England than I saw Maye try with North Carolina. It took me six games of charting to see Maye execute a judicious check-down. In the other contests, Maye took larger risks -- often poor risks -- attacking downfield or took sacks attempting to buy time so he could attack downfield. 

It's important to have a big-play mentality in the NFL. It's equally important to balance that mentality with when to manage the game and take the small victories and/or small losses rather than the huge defeats. 

Maye is still trying to fit the ball into tight targets under pressure in situations where he shouldn't (more on this later) and making mistakes, but he is taking the check-downs more often. Here's one after an interception that I'll show later. 

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Where Maye Looks the Same

Drop Footwork and Two-Man Route Combinations

Maye had well-paced and well-spaced three-step and five-step drops from Pistol and shotgun at North Carolina. He displayed this in 2022. In 2023, most of his reps were one- and two-step setups. When he had a three-step drop, it appeared well-defined and paced.

In 2022, Maye earned time under center and had five-step and seven-step drops, usually as part of a play fake with a half-roll embedded. He can abbreviate drops when he spots pressure during the process.

When Maye had the time in the pocket he could be patient with zone windows.

Note: If I mentioned in the video that Maye looked better with drops than I remembered in college, I hadn't cross-referenced my scouting notes before I reviewed his games this year. 

Quick Zone Reads with Two-Man Route Combinations

Maye accounted for the middle-of-the-field defender with targets between inside-outside zones so he’s not leading the receiver too far toward the defender. 

Identifying Pre-Snap Cushions 

There are tons of examples in the quick game the Patriots play. I don't need to show any of these. Watch a lot of the short out-breaking routes to perimeter receivers, and you'll see that the cornerback was playing 5-7 yards off the line of scrimmage and was one of the two deepest defenders pre-snap. He did this well during his career at North Carolina. 

Pass Placement Accounting for the Triangle of Defenders 

In college, Maye accounted for the coverage triangle of defenders up the seam and placed the ball where the receiver could earn the ball without being led into contact at the catch point.

"Robo QB" Arm-Mobility that GMs and Fans Overrate

All the things I described above and the things I'm going to describe after this section are more important than what Maye did below. However, it's the type of play that excites media analysts with football backgrounds. It becomes overvalued in the public eye. 

Here's one former GM Mike Tannenbaum liked when I posted it last night...

To clarify, I'm not saying all former personnel executives overvalue these things in scouting reports -- some do -- I'm telling you that these plays are the most common examples you see shared with the public. This gives these plays an overrated gravity among the fans and media.

The Greatest Concern with Maye's Game

In college, Maye was prone to flushing and rolling out more than climbing if both opportunities presented themselves. This led to Maye missing opportunities for big plays because he was not in a throwing position to attack downfield when the moment presented itself.

He was also prone to maneuvering outside the pocket and generating pressure that wasn’t there because he worked outside the leverage of what was sound pass protection. \He can be seen correcting his position back inside after inviting pressure inadvertently and this led to late movement just before his release.

He would attempt throws across his body under pressure and on the move to receivers working across the field with a defender that had advantageous leverage to cut off the target. This happened repeatedly throughout his tape.

Maye isn't "pocket reactive" on the level of young Blaine Gabbert or Zach Wilson, but these outtakes illustrate habitual behaviors that opponents can influence and exploit. 

These behaviors could slow his development or cost him games and, ultimately, his job. Baker Mayfield had similar pocket management issues at Oklahoma and Cleveland. He has improved in Tampa Bay. 

Rarely is one issue the singular contributor to a team parting ways with a quarterback, and this isn't one of those issues. Even so, it carries more weight than arm talent. 

Maye's Fantasy Future

Maye hasn't been a disaster and there are promising plays on his tape. My compliments to the Patriots for giving Maye more time on the bench than I pessimistically expected from them. 

Considering the Patriots' weak offensive line and journeymen-level receiving corps, there's reason for optimism. At the same time, I don't believe Maye would have replicated Bo Nix's success in Denver -- environment only matters so much.

The Broncos' offensive line isn't much better than Maye's. The difference? Nix makes it look that way -- he is a better pocket player and superior game manager to Maye. 

Maye needs upgrades with surrounding talent -- both continued improvement from young receivers like DeMario Douglas, Ja'Lynn Polk, Javon Baker, and Kayshon Boutte and an influx of skill along the offensive line. 

The best answer for Maye's fantasy future is that there's still much more to see before going all-in on him as your quarterback solution for your dynasty and re-draft teams. If it works, Maye could become the mostly good that we've seen more often from Sam Darnold this year -- that's low-end QB1 material in most leagues.

If it doesn't, Maye could see a trajectory similar to Mitchell Trubisky and Drew Lock -- promising beginnings, but not working past their shortcomings and their development stalling out. 

At this point, Maye is more likely to become a Derek Carr-like producer than flame out like Gabbert, Wilson, or Trubisky. However, there's too much work ahead to have confidence he can emerge as a perennial fantasy starter in most single-QB formats.

It means there's a lot of flexibility with how you leverage Maye's long-term value with your roster. 

The Case for Buying Maye

Maye's 67.3 percent completion rate coincides with his commitment to a conservative passing game to counteract a poor offensive line. For a rookie, he's managing the game as well as should be expected. 

There's a good argument that the Patriots are only going to get better from here. It makes Maye a worthwhile addition to a stable of young quarterbacks on a dynasty roster. 

Do not make Maye the headliner because New England has a lot of pieces it's either leaning on to develop (the young receivers) or enhance (linemen via the draft and free agency). If they fail more than they succeed, Maye's development could either plateau or regress. 

While Maye could eventually join Nix or Jayden Daniels as rookies who have proved they can deliver starter production, it's best to value Maye as the top option in the tier of "unproven" youth at the position. Think of Will Levis as Maye's kooky neighbor in this tier.

For more context, consider Bryce Young as the neighbor who just got his house under contract. He's moving to a nicer place that might prove more valuable in the long term than the trendy neighborhood where Nix and Daniels live. 

The Case for Selling Maye

More than 50 percent of first-round quarterbacks fail out of their starting roles. If you have quarterback depth and you can get a return on investment for Maye that rivals Nix, Daniels, or Young's (what should be) recently enhanced value, do it. 

You should get quality draft picks for Maye. You should get earlier picks if you ask for 2026 selections. If you get 2025 picks be careful about spending them on this year's class of passers. I can't make any promises yet about the quality of this class.

I can tell you the running back class is pretty good, but it might be worth getting 2025 picks and, depending on how this year's crop of players look, trade into 2026 before or during your rookie draft. 

The Case for Holding Maye

You lack quarterback depth, and you're considering adding QBs in this year's class because your team could contend in 2025 if a passer on your roster can deliver starter value. 

Another case is if you have Maye as part of a portfolio of young quarterbacks on a rebuilt team and can afford to wait and see how your roster develops. 

Of course, the most obvious reason you're holding Maye is if you're a Patriots fan and you think that having Tom Brady as your quarterback for 20 years makes you an expert on all things quarterbacks.

In that case, you probably stopped reading when I said Maye wasn't a lock to become the next deity of ball slingers. 

Good luck! 

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