The Broncos are the hot young team in the AFC. The defense is among the five best in the NFL, Bo Nix's game is growing by the week, and the receiving room is young and wide-open for anyone to earn a significant role in the future.
Devaughn Vele is an early candidate to become one of Nix's favorites for the foreseeable future. Denver's WR2 for the past four weeks, Vele is fantasy football's WR34 during that span in PPR formats.
Vele's rookie production is a promising indication that he has a fantasy future for the Broncos. He's second on the team in receptions and yards and he's only one target behind Lil'Jordan Humphrey for the second spot in that category.
Vele's seventh-round draft capital could fool fantasy GMs and analysts into thinking otherwise. Marvin Mims Jr. is a second-round pick, and Troy Franklin is a fourth-round option.
Sean Payton's history will tell you to ditch draft capital. Lance Moore was an undrafted free agent that the Cleveland Browns let slip through their fingers. Marques Colston was a seventh-round pick. This pair was more productive than second-rounder Devery Henderson and first-rounder Robert Meachem.
Courtland Sutton will remain the primary option through 2025, and we should expect Denver to acquire another talent in the offseason who could replace Sutton in 2026. Even so, Vele has the skills and the opportunity to grow into a reliable contributor with legitimate fantasy value in many formats.
The Pre-Draft Scouting Report
The 2024 Rookie Scouting Portfolio graded Vele as a capable contributor out of the box. His Depth of Talent score of 78.2 translates to a player with starter execution in a limited role and diminishing returns beyond that scope:
"A walk-on in 2019, Vele has NFL-caliber size and athletic ability. He has a starter ceiling but should be regarded as a developmental project because there are a lot of details in Vele’s game that need refinement.
Vele has a lot of release moves, but most develop a greater range of movement and pace variation to execute them with the artistry necessary to separate against top man-to-man defenders in the NFL. He’s fast enough to defeat cornerbacks playing tight to the line and eat into the cushion of others playing off-coverage.
Vele stacks opponents when he earns separation on vertical stems. It would benefit Vele to sell the vertical concept of routes further into his stems than he does so he can set up routes breaking back to the quarterback with more ease.
The rest of his stem work and setups at the top of stems have a solid foundation. He should continue perfecting his craft so that each phase of the route sets up the next.
Vele’s breaks need the most refinement with his route running. He drifts out of speed breaks and doesn’t earn enough weight drop for sudden hard breaks. He’s physically capable of developing both styles of breaks, and this will maximize the threat of his speed, which is good enough to become a starting flanker in the league.
Vele must attack the ball earlier in its trajectory. He can do so, but his effort to do so is the exception rather than the rule at this point. This is probably the greatest impediment between Vele’s current standing as a prospect and what he can become because allowing the ball into his frame is the root for the variety of minor issues with his pass-receiving that could become magnified in a league where the opponents are good at exploiting the smallest weakness in a player’s game to their advantage.
After the catch, Vele moves with quickness and urgency when changing direction. He can spin off collisions. He has a good feel for which direction to turn downfield against coverage as well as the peripheral vision to dip away from pursuit.
Vele finishes well. He pulls through reaches to his lower body. He has an effective stiff arm with good reach to ward off contact to his upper body. He will meet oncoming collisions in the secondary with his pads low and keep his feet moving, bouncing off safeties. His ball security can be tighter, especially in the open field with defenders in pursuit.
If Vele’s athletic ability and work ethic helped him go from walk-on to leading starter for a Pac-10 team, there’s reason to be open-minded about Vele continuing to grow into a reliable contributor if not a starter by the end of his first contract.
What is the best scheme fit? Vele’s potential as a route runner and his work after the catch makes him a long-term fit for a West Coast Scheme. He could produce quicker in a spread offense, but the lessons he could gain in a West Coast Scheme might make him a better player long-term and one whose game translates best across offenses.
Pre-NFL Draft Fantasy Advice: Vele and Cornelius Johnson are the two of the players near the top end of this fourth tier who have the highest ceiling of potential to develop into starters. Vele is a worthwhile stab after the fourth round in rookie drafts before the NFL Draft. If it’s an IDP league, Vele and Johnson could be available in rounds 6-7."
How Denver Is Matching Vele's Skills to Its Scheme
Vele is not a strong enough route runner to beat cornerbacks playing him one-on-one on an island when running timing routes like curls, outs, digs, and comebacks. These are the big-boy man-to-man routes of the wide receiver kingdom.
The potential is there for him to develop these routes, but I'm skeptical he'll ever be a matchup threat against top cornerbacks with these routes. It doesn't kill his fantasy value, but it may limit his ceiling if the Broncos try to make him a full-time perimeter option.
When Denver Aligns Vele Outside
Denver knows this about Vele, and they have specific uses for the rookie when the offense aligns him outside.
How the #Broncos like to use Devaughn Vele when they align him outside: Off-man/zone coverage. pic.twitter.com/wCAE7I7PYG
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 26, 2024
Another way the #Broncos like to use Devaughn Vele when they align him outside: As the underneath receiver with teammates running off the defense so he can be a ballcarrier. pic.twitter.com/YoAbCle27q
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 26, 2024
A third way Devaughn Vele is used outside: Quick slants with his size against C3.
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 26, 2024
Solid stick-shed release combo. Again, underhand attack and slight juggle but good catch. Ball arrived at back hip that also required slight turn. #Broncos pic.twitter.com/PhAuo0mq6C
None of these patterns are timing routes against tight man-to-man coverage. At the same time, these looks allow Denver to use Vele as an outside weapon and create variety with alignments.
Vele gets to use his size as a receiver and a ballcarrier, and that's a win for the offense.
Routes Where Vele Displays Skills
The short answer is zone coverage. Vele may never have the quick twitch athletic ability to win all of the big-boy timing routes against top man-to-man corners, but he can manipulate off-coverage and zone defenders.
Again, C3 vs. Devaughn Vele on the outside.
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 26, 2024
Vele stair-steps this inside break by stemming inside, straightening out to attack vertically to force CB to turn hips and then break back inside.
Good catch vs. contact. Good attack. #BroncosCountry pic.twitter.com/NjDSJPgL4F
Vele also adjusts well with his quarterback. This scramble drill adjustment is excellent when considering Vele knew where the hole in the Chargers' zone would be without even looking at it.
DeVaughn Vele #Broncos delivering a nice adjustment vs. zone on scramble drill. Excellent understanding of where the open crease would be without looking at it.
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 26, 2024
That's understanding the play concept and the defense. pic.twitter.com/83aLkA6aHG
The Middle of the Field: Vele's Wheelhouse
Sean Payton compared Vele to Marques Colston in Monday's press conference after the Raiders' game. The staff told Cecil Lammey this summer that Vele was their future Tim Patrick. Both players are on the spectrum of the same archetype:
- Tall
- Physical
- Ball winners above the rim
- Tough over the middle
- Tackle breakers
- Fast enough to threaten safeties in the vertical game
Vele, like Colston, thrives in the middle of the field.
Devaughn Vele with the violent shed vs. LB Nick Bolton to get into the open zone fast in the red zone for the TD on the cross.
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 26, 2024
Excellent counter to the LB's hands to ensure he didn't get hung up.#Broncos pic.twitter.com/yyMPaeGq7q
Vele also wins as an inside receiver working to the boundary against zone or off-coverage safeties and smaller defensive backs playing him tight.
The #Broncos saw Devaughn Vele as their future Tim Patrick in camp. That future came early. Vele uses his size well in many situations and he executes well as the inside receiver working to the boundary. pic.twitter.com/fI9x02EReo
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 26, 2024
If Payton and the Broncos keep Vele as primarily a big slot who offers situational value on the perimeter, we could see Denver run its offense through Vele one day with Mims and Franklin in the Moore and Henderson roles.
If this happens, Colston delivered 1,000-1,200 yards and 7-11 scores in 6 of his first 7 seasons. That production is legitimate low-end WR1 to mid-range WR2 fantasy value to this day.
Are the Hands A Concern?
The RSP's scouting report cited Vele's attack as inconsistent when projecting his game to the NFL. When charting Vele's production, the RSP looked at four games against UCLA, Oregon State, Washington, and Oregon.
Vele caught 100 percent of the targets delivered with pinpoint accuracy in these contests. He also caught 100 percent of the targets forcing Vele to adjust more than what the route should require.
Vele 7 of 9 targets against contact -- including 6 of 8 (75%) of targets that forced the receiver to adjust to the ball. Vele was also 100 percent with targets against tight coverage in this sample.
So far, Vele's hands aren't a significant concern. His role is a big reason because he's not running timing routes with a defender plastered on him in man-to-man coverage. If he were, the lapses with his attack of the ball could be magnified and lead to drops.
This slant against outside shade zone coverage gives you an idea of where things could go wrong if he faced press-man.
Devaughn Vele was a reliable pass catcher at Utah.
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 26, 2024
His techniques of attack had some lapses that didn't project as reliably for the NFL if judging him as a primary option.
As a secondary option, you can live with it but room for growth despite early success #Broncos pic.twitter.com/9x66Ha9DWs
Because Vele isn't earning use as an outside receiver who often faces tight man-to-man like Courtland Sutton, his lapses in this specific area of pass-catching aren't magnified.
Vele's Fantasy Future
If Denver continues using Vele as a Colston archetype in its offense, Vele could have a high fantasy ceiling -- think a mid-range WR2 (top 15-20). If Vele refines his route breaks and hands to develop into a legitimate man-to-man threat against outside corners, his ceiling could be higher -- think a mix between Colston and Michael Thomas.
I wouldn't get excited about that outcome. Expect Vele to continue refining his game and building rapport with Nix as a frequent first-read option against zone coverage in the middle of the field and on the perimeter. That could make him a safe WR3 with low-end WR2 ceilings if the Broncos offense doesn't suffer setbacks.
The Case for Buying Vele
Vele's production is on the rise, but he hasn't skyrocketed like Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He's also not winning deep vertical targets that will catch the attention of casual fantasy GMs and fans.
Fantasy GMs with Vele may believe they are selling high on Vele if they get value commensurate with a fantasy WR3. If you believe Payton's offense values a Michael Thomas-Marques Colston archetype -- and there's no reason to believe this has changed -- Vele's long-term value could be mid-range WR2 in fantasy.
That's a nice return. Vele is one of Payton's picks. Marvin Mims Jr. is not. The rest of the veteran options are journeymen who are losing snaps to Vele.
The Case for Selling Vele
Most reliable fantasy starters win against man-to-man coverage on the perimeter. Vele's ceiling could remain reliant on targets in the slot or on heavily scripted perimeter plays against zone coverage.
If Sean Payton or Vele leaves Denver, his value could plummet. Getting fantasy WR3 value from Vele could be a safe and profitable return for a seventh-round rookie you probably got as a free agent or a late-round rookie pick.
The Case for Holding Vele
If you have Vele, you probably added him as a luxury rather than a roster need. There are good reasons to see if he becomes a Colston-like value.
Payton got rid of a lot of players who weren't "his guys." The media groused that the team wasn't enjoying life under Payton in 2023. However, Payton's moves are getting a return. Winning also solves a lot of morale problems that a losing mentality breeds.
Payton likely bought himself at least 3-4 more years based on the team's play, especially with Nix's rookie performance. There will be no questions about Payton's future and that equity will also lead to buy-in with Payton's offensive strategy.
Other than Sutton, Vele might be the one receiving option whose job is not only safe in 2025, but also has growth potential.
Good luck!
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