The Department Store vs. The Consignment Shop
The fun part about working at Footballguys is that I can focus on giving you preemptive value ahead of the waiver wire. In recent weeks, I've discussed Jameis Winston, Bo Nix, Cedric Tillman, Keon Coleman, Jauan Jennings, Isaac Guerendo, and Ricky Pearsall as worthwhile fantasy options when the opportunity strikes.
That's 50 percent of Sigmund Bloom's Waiver Wire Targets article for Week 9 delivered to you with advanced notice. Most fantasy players are casual players, and Bloom is doing a great job servicing a vast majority of the leagues where these options are still available.
I enjoy writing about players who the fantasy writers aren't yet touting because those are usually the players available in my leagues. These options are preemptive additions in case you have the luxury to rotate 1-3 players per week on and off your roster. If they become high-demand commodities, you have saved 20%-50% of your free agent budget.
This gives you more negotiation power if you can trade funds and more buying power to outbid your competition when a must-have commodity becomes available. It may have strategic value to empty your wallet early for big-ticket players early in the season, but if you already have a strong team, it's worth keeping every avenue open to acquire talent for as long as possible. This includes mindful budgeting of waiver funds.
As Bloom gives you the department store version of the free agent pool, let's review the sneaky options you can find at the consignment store, eBay, and the pawn shop.
WR Elijah Moore, Cleveland
Cedric Tillman is the hot name in the Utilization game thanks to snaps, targets, and production. If you can get the second-year option from Tennessee, he has been a receiver I've touted as an option who could emerge as a starter within 2-3 seasons of his young career. Tillman, the PPR fantasy WR1 for the past two weeks, is an easy addition based on his role in the offense and how the Browns create easy slants for him in the passing game.
#ClevelandBrowns Jameis Winston anticipates the S rotation pre-snap, confirms post snap, and finds Cedric Tillman for a first down. pic.twitter.com/Osxi0XwI2X
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 28, 2024
Moore is earning a wider variety of targets because the Browns' offense utilizes him more in the slot, but there are still a substantial percentage of routes that begin wide of the formation. It makes him an underrated target-getter with the potential for greater consistency when paired with a quarterback like Jameis Winston.
Moore vs. Tillman Alignment Data
| Alignment | Elijah Moore | Cedric Tillman |
|---|---|---|
| Wide L | 13% | 33% |
| Slot L | 23% | 9% |
| Tight L | 4% | 11% |
| Backfield | 3% | 7% |
| Tight R | 4% | 9% |
| Slot R | 32% | 9% |
| Wide R | 21% | 29% |
| Total Wide | 34% | 64% |
| Total Slot | 55% | 18% |
| Total Tight | 8% | 20% |
Pretty throw by Jameis Winston on the sail route to Elijah Moore. #ClevelandBrowns pic.twitter.com/i8gH2XuD5m
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 28, 2024
Opposite-boundary out to Elijah Moore from Jameis Winston. Ripping this over the flat defender. #ClevelandBrowns pic.twitter.com/3NeyIpzkHG
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 28, 2024
Nice read of the rotation by Jameis Winston and getting the ball on time to Elijah Moore, who runs a nice out route -selling the vertical potential of the route very well and decelerating with expertise. #ClevelandBrowns pic.twitter.com/CZnCpJXT7o
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 28, 2024
While Moore is likely competing for the No.3 role in the Browns' pecking order with Jerry Jeudy, he has been fantasy football's WR18 for the past two weeks in PPR formats and has only one less reception than Tillman during this span.
Think of Moore as Winston's Chris Godwin -- a good route runner with YAC skills who can win outside better than utilized but also capable from the slot. You may not get peak Winston-Godwin numbers (WR2 overall in 2019 with just 14 games played), but Moore is the bargain you may have in hand if you couldn't land Tillman and need a starter.
WR Calvin Austin III, Pittsburgh
Josh Downs is the young big-play slot threat Bloom mentioned at his waiver-wire department store. If you're too late to get Downs, Austin is worth your while.
Both will be working with veteran quarterbacks with notable experience reading defenses and will attack downfield. Both earn vertical routes and have the YAC skills to turn shorter routes into bigger plays.
Downs has 47 targets, 32 catches, 351 yards, and 3 scores this year. Austin has 25 targets, 14 catches, 257 yards, and 2 scores--more efficient numbers at a substantially lower price.
Downs will earn more deep match-up advantages against safeties and intermediate targets against linebackers because of how often the Colts use him from the backfield and in tight alignments. Austin earns more vertical shots as an outside receiver.
Austin vs. Downs Alignment Data
| Alignment | Calvin Austin III | Josh Downs |
|---|---|---|
| Wide L | 20% | 10% |
| Slot L | 29% | 25% |
| Tight L | 2% | 3% |
| Backfield | 2% | 15% |
| Tight R | 2% | 5% |
| Slot R | 22% | 30% |
| Wide R | 23% | 11% |
| Total Wide | 43% | 21% |
| Total Slot | 51% | 55% |
| Total Tight | 4% | 8% |
With Russell Wilson as Austin's quarterback, you should not be concerned about Austin's height as a vertical option. Tyler Lockett and Doug Baldwin had excellent years with Wilson and earned plenty of vertical targets. Wilson's moon balls in the deep game make life easier for receivers to win these targets, and Austin has excellent speed and underrated skill to win jump balls.
Although not earning the same versatility of usage as Downs to generate easy matchups, Austin gets touches on jet sweeps, RPOs, screens, and crossers. I also suspect we'll see more of Austin in tight alignments with Wilson on the field because Austin meshes well with Wilson on those sneaky matchups and longer-developing deep routes that cross the field leveraging Wilson's moon ball.
Nice little move by Calvin Austin III to set up the dash to the pylon. pic.twitter.com/FWPUgeEuC5
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 29, 2024
I also bet we won't see Wilson miss this opportunity again this year...
Russell Wilson will look at the tape and wonder WTF was in his eyes that he didn't see Calvin Austin III here. #SteelersNation pic.twitter.com/qvHicV80EP
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 29, 2024
I compared Austin to a young Doug Baldwin with more speed. Wilson compared him this summer to Lockett, and the usage matches the comparison.
If you can't get Downs but want a big-play option who has delivered WR36 value the past two weeks and has a shot to climb the fantasy charts, Austin is a cheap bet. You might find Austin is a combination of Downs and Bloom's other recommendation of Ricky Pearsall in an underrated Steelers offense at a fraction of the cost.
WR Van Jefferson, Pittsburgh
I am not a fan of Jefferson's game because he's as lackluster of a catch-point technician as he is a strong route runner. Still, Jefferson has a shot at a Jermaine Kearse-like role for Wilson in Pittsburgh.
Kearse averaged 75 targets during his three seasons as a starter in Seattle. He averaged 43 catches, 577 yards, and 2 touchdowns during that span. Like Kearse, Jefferson does his best work as an intermediate threat or a vertical option on long-developing plays with a play-action development. Think deep crossers, deep posts, and go routes with a back-should component.
Van Jefferson with a nice catch on the Russell Wilson back-shoulder target. #PittsburghSteelers pic.twitter.com/xUpUHKebWU
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 29, 2024
Jefferson's production is ahead of Austin after two weeks. He's fantasy football's WR30 in PPR formats during this span. If this continues, Jefferson could function as a discount version of Jauan Jennings -- an option who benefits most against zone defenses off long-developing plays.
I'm not bullish on Jefferson, but I see the path to success. At his price, he's worth adding at no charge to the back end of rosters to find out if he can sustain his recent uptick.
RB Chris Brooks, Green Bay
Let's take a break from the wide receivers and talk about Bloom's tout of MarShawn Lloyd. Bloom told no lies about Lloyd's potential ceiling in the Packers' scheme. He's a big-play zone runner and receiver.
He's also a serial fumbler. The RB success rate of becoming a fantasy value plummets to 10 percent based on the RSP's past six years of data when their college security rate is as bad as Lloyd's.
If you're new to the program, the RSP is the Rookie Scouting Portfolio--the most comprehensive analysis of rookie skill players known to man and entering its 20th year of publication.
Brooks doesn't have Lloyd's draft capital, and we all know that draft capital creates a sunk-cost bias among NFL decision-makers. What Brooks has is promising production in a loaded Miami Dolphins backfield as a UDFA in 2023, and he's proven a quick enough study to ascend the Packers' depth chart in short order.
Brooks has out-snapped Wilson 26 to 25 in the past two weeks, including 18-12 in Week 8. He's a more powerful runner with underrated vision, field smarts, and agility. His ball security is not an issue, and he's an excellent pass protector and receiver.
I suspect they read @MattWaldman's RSP
— Nic Bodiford (@NicBodifordNFL) October 29, 2024
Brooks also had several snaps aligned in the backfield with Josh Jacobs, with Green Bay using Jacobs as a decoy in the passing game and handing Brooks the ball. The Packers like Brooks, and unless he falters, his performance could keep the mercurial Lloyd on the bench -- especially because he has been inconsistent as a rookie performance since he arrived.
Lloyd is the in-demand player who, long-term, may earn a bigger shot due to draft capital. Brooks is the guy you don't forget about who could outplay Lloyd and succeed A.J. Dillon -- if not outperform Dillon after the veteran leaves town.
If it doesn't happen here for Brooks, it will happen somewhere.
WR John Metchie III, Houston
Stefon Diggs's torn ACL in Week 8 opens the door for a slot receiver in Houston. Robert Woods is the steady aging standby, but Metchie played well enough this summer that the Texans were compelled to keep an extra receiver despite a loaded room.
Based on injuries, I bet they're happy about that decision. Nico Collins is expected back soon, and Metchie saw an uptick in snaps when Diggs left Week 8's contest.
While it is possible that Metchie winds up a specialized tool alongside Woods, Xavier Hutchinson, and Cade Stover in a toolbox approach to filling the Diggs role, Metchie's youth and athletic ability could earn him the earliest opportunity to prove he's the fantasy option to have on your roster.
Metchie is a dart throw compared to the rest of these recommendations, but it's a logical dart throw nonetheless.
WR Parker Washington, Jacksonville
This second-year product from Penn State is a Hines Ward starter kit with coupons to redeem the bonus pieces that could vault him into a regular role at some point in his career. Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis, and Brian Thomas Jr. got hurt in Week 8, which leaves Washington as the receiver with whom Trevor Lawrence has the greatest rapport.
Washington lacks great speed, but he's an acrobatic pass-catcher who is a tough receiver and runner. By the way, when you watch the final target below, Washington catches more of those contested balls than he drops.
All of Parker Washington's targets vs. the Packers.
— John Shipley (@_John_Shipley) October 29, 2024
He will have a big opportunity in Christian Kirk's role. pic.twitter.com/7T1CODQyza
He can function as a flanker and a slot option. Who played this role in Jacksonville? Christian Kirk. Last year, Washington had a pair of games as a rookie in Weeks 13 and 14, earning 9 targets, 8 catches, 88 yards, and 2 impressive touchdowns.
This summer, the Jaguars staff told the media Washington's game climbed a notch over the offseason -- something they didn't see until after they signed Davis and drafted Thomas.
I expect Washington to become a Bloom recommendation in the coming weeks.
Good luck!