The What of the Matter: Is Jayden Daniels For Real?
Jayden Daniels is the second-most productive quarterback in fantasy football after three weeks. The Bengals' game in Week 3 was a coming-out party thrown on a national stage.
Daniels had scintillating moments in Cincinnati, but the game didn't vault him into the fantasy starter tier. Daniels was the No.7 fantasy QB after two weeks, averaging 20.8 points per game despite not throwing a touchdown pass.
Daniels is earning enormous praise this month. Exactly a decade ago, there was another first-round quarterback with a celebrated college career, a big arm, and mobility who generated even more excitement with his NFL debut.
Marcus Mariota delivered five passing touchdowns in Week 1. By Week 3, he was the No.7 quarterback in fantasy football. Mariota missed part of the season with an injury but still finished his rookie year as QB16 in points per game average (18).
A decade and four teams later, Mariota is on IR as one of the Commanders' reserves.
Thirteen years ago, one of the players I compared stylistically to Jayden Daniels in the Rookie Scouting Portfolio lit up the NFL as a top-five producer at the position as a rookie. He was QB1 after three weeks. That player was Robert Griffin III.
Injury and dysfunction between Griffin and Mike Shanahan were significant factors that derailed Griffin's development. So was the Commanders' offense relying heavily on schemed plays with limited progression reads. Once opponents figured it out, Griffin didn't overcome his weaknesses as a decision-maker.
It's a forgotten part of the Griffin lore, especially as he's on social media saying Daniels is "Strouding" Caleb Williams' expectations. Griffin is a likable personality, but you would think he'd be emotionally honest with himself about his career trajectory and apply that wisdom to the dangers of short-term, short-sighted buzz. Then again, in today's media environment, that doesn't earn clicks.
Clicks or not, quarterback development has proven difficult for the NFL. Griffin, Mariota, Jameis Winston, Baker Mayfield, Gardner Minshew II, and are among the quarterbacks to start hot and fade away once opposing defenses develop game plans to foil them.
Some eventually rebound and prove they can handle a starting NFL gig. Others fade from fantasy memory.
With that perspective in mind, fantasy GMs have questions. Here are some quick answers for those who don't have time to delve into the details:
Is Jayden Daniels An Emerging Star?
He has the tools to develop into one, but history and the Commanders' offense suggest September is a bright spot and not jump too far ahead with his fantasy valuation.
Is Jayden Daniels Fantasy-Relevant or A Passing Fad?
For at least the next 4-6 weeks, yes, Daniels is relevant. His sample size as an intermediate and vertical decision-maker is too low to project reliably beyond that time frame, but as long as you have a productive backup for your fantasy lineup, you should rely on Daniels until there's reason to bench him.
Will Opposing Defenses Figure Jayden Daniels Out This Year?
History indicates the answer is yes. Executing solutions productively to stop Jayden Daniels is another story. Expect Daniels to see a small-to-moderate dip in weekly production between Weeks 5-8 as opponents develop game plans to slow the offense based on scouting reports.
Considering that Washington has thrown the ball at or behind the line of scrimmage 3-4 times more often than the NFL average and Daniels has not thrown a single pass when forced to his left, opposing defenses have potential weaknesses to test.
If Daniels or the Commanders don't figure out counters to what's coming, we may see a bigger drop between Weeks 10-15. Still, expect Daniels to remain no worse than a high-upside match-up starter as the year progresses.
If Defenses Foil Jayden Daniels By Midseason, Can Daniels Rebound?
Based on my pre-draft scouting report of Jayden Daniels, the short answer is yes. The longer answer depends on the flexibility of the Commanders' scheme.
I have my doubts about the Commanders' offense if opposing defenses foil the one-read, scripted plays that don't use a lot of progression reads. This could force Washington into difficult play and game scripts that limit the playbook.
Jayden Daniels could be forced into pressure-induced mistakes as a thrower and a runner. Even if Daniels struggles as the season unfolds, his skills should give fans reason for optimism as long as he doesn't take excessive punishment and is left on the field to do so without schematic help.
The Fantasy Details
Jayden Daniels may be the fantasy QB2 after three weeks, but it's not supporting the rest of his passing offense.
- Zach Ertz is TE9 with an equivalency of TE/WR64 when combining receiver positions.
- Terry McLaurin is WR41
- Noah Brown is WR80
- Luke McCaffrey is WR87
- Olamide Zaccheaus is WR104
The running backs are earning good passing production--Austin Ekeler and Brian Robinson Jr are 3rd and 26th in receiving yardage among backs--but their overall fantasy value is serviceable. Robinson is RB17 and Ekeler RB26.
Much like Kliff Kingsbury's offenses in Arizona, the QB is the fantasy black hole. There is potential for that to change. The trajectory of the offense during the first three weeks, culminating with Week 3 in Cincinnati, offers hope for Terry McLaurin and Zach Ertz.
The Why: The Commanders Conducted A Slow Launch
The film and the advanced stats indicate Washington's strategy for Jayden Daniels is a slow launch.
After two weeks of starts, Daniels had thrown 37 percent of his passes to targets at or behind the line of scrimmage. The NFL average was 11 percent.
When examining Daniels' pass distribution for those two games, only three targets traveled more than 10 yards downfield. Daniels was 0/2 in up the deep left sideline (25 yards or greater) and 1/1 with a target at the right boundary between 10-15 yards downfield.
All but those three targets traveled no further than 10 yards. That's an extreme target map for any NFL quarterback. It's an indicator the Commanders want to limit Daniels's downfield decision-making early in his career.
Say all you want about the praise Jayden Daniels' teammates and coaches are sharing in the media; the results add more context to the story. Multiple things can be true:
- They like Daniels' leadership and preparation.
- They are happy with Daniels' execution and management of the game plan.
- They are happy with Daniels making timely plays in big moments.
- They are limiting the need for Daniels to make the high-level decisions we see from top NFL passers.
It's not that Daniels isn't capable of developing into a high-level field general from the pocket. It's that Daniels' game had more breakdowns at LSU when asked to make timely second and third reads and his pocket game wasn't as strong when in these scenarios.
The Commanders' offensive strategy during the past three weeks reveals that they didn't want to place too many conceptual/technical demands on Daniels' game early on. I'm in favor of this approach, and not just specifically for Jayden Daniels.
It's a good idea to do this with many talented young prospects with limited NFL experience. Malik Willis is earning a variation of this treatment in Green Bay.
Willis has only thrown four balls more than 20 yards downfield during his two starts with the Packers and only five targets between 10-20 yards. Not once has Willis thrown a ball on the move to his left.
Andy Dalton matched Willis' intermediate and deep target volume in one game. Caleb Williams has thrown the ball more than 25 yards down the field 11 times this year and he has 26 attempts covering 10 yards or greater this year.
Jayden Daniels has 22, but nearly half of them (10) came against the Bengals in Week 3. This is a wise approach in an NFL ownership and media environment where there's a demand to start first-round picks immediately.
The team appeases the impulses of the public and their executive leadership but they aren't giving the player too much too soon. Week 3 was when the Commanders increased the demands on Daniels.
How Week 3 Was the Next Phase for Jayden Daniels
In Weeks 1-2, 37 of Daniels' 49 passes (75.5 percent) traveled less than 10 yards. In Week 3, that rate dropped 19 percent (13 of 23) as the Commanders eased the governor off the playbook.
Jayden Daniels delivered an impressive 8 of 10 performance with targets of at least 10 yards and was 2 of 4 beyond 25 yards. Here's a 15-minute analysis of Daniels' intermediate and vertical throws.
Expect Washington to continue easing Daniels into game plans where there are fewer designed plays with one read at or near the line of scrimmage. If Daniels performs as he did in Cincinnati, he could be in for an excellent rookie year as a weekly fantasy starter and could support Terry McLaurin as a fantasy WR2 (top 15-20) and tight end Zach Ertz as a borderline fantasy starter.
If opposing defenses can force Jayden Daniels to his left and make him throw the ball as well as limit the effectiveness of scripted plays near the line of scrimmage, we could see a decline in Daniels' overall production. This could render McLaurin and Ertz to flex value.
In re-draft formats, keep Daniels in your starting lineups for now. Keep or acquire a quality backup. Consider selling Terry McLaurin during the next 3-4 games if you can.
Most of all, maintain a sober outlook with Daniels' rookie year. The film and the offensive data reveal promise, but there's a difference between a good start and arriving at the destination. Prepare for the worst based on rookie histories at the position, but there are reasons on film to hope for the best.
Until next week, good luck!
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