Deshaun Watson is out, and Jameis Winston is in. Russell Wilson is in, and Justin Fields is out. Amari Cooper is the new face in Buffalo. Who else on these teams benefits from these changes?
Welcome to Week 8 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- Fantasy True or False
- Real or Fool's Gold, TE Edition
- Who Benefits From Recent Lineup Changes (see below)
- QBs Suffering Due to Other Injuries
Let's roll.
Who Benefits From Recent Lineup Changes
Matt Waldman: Select one situation from the list.
- Jameis Winston starting for Cleveland.
- Russell Wilson starting for Pittsburgh (George Pickens is obvious; choose another Steeler)
- Amari Cooper in Buffalo (can't choose Josh Allen)
Jeff Haseley: With Jameis Winston starting for Cleveland, the immediate beneficiary is David Njoku. With the departure of Amari Cooper to Buffalo, Njoku becomes the best-receiving threat in Cleveland, and it may not be close.
Since Njoku's return from injury, he has a 30% and 20% team target share. With Winston now under center, I fully expect him to be the team's top target and biggest receiving weapon. He finished with 10 catches for 76 yards and a score in last week's game, where Deshaun Watson left with an Achilles injury.
Phil Alexander: Jeff is probably right about David Njoku becoming the beneficiary of Jameis Winston starting for Cleveland. But since the subscribers deserve some variety, why can't Winston also turn Jerry Jeudy's season around?
It's the smallest of samples, but on Winston's lone drive in Week 7, he aimed a team-high 36.4% of his throws at Jeudy. While we can't expect Jeudy to maintain such a stranglehold on the team's targets, it's a given he'll command significantly more than the 16.9% he has to date.
The quality of Jeudy's targets should increase along with the quantity. Winston has averaged 7.7 adjusted yards per pass attempt throughout his career. This season, Deshaun Watson has averaged an anemic 5.15. Winston's willingness to push the ball downfield should also lead to more splash plays for Jeudy, who leads all Browns pass-catchers with 13.2 air yards per target on the season.
Corey Spala: I agree with Phil that Winston would raise the value of Jerry Jeudy, whom Winston favored over the popular waiver wire addition Cedric Tillman. Dorian Thompson-Robinson favored Tillman (29.2% target share), as Jeudy was targeted on one of his 43 routes.
Winston targeted Jeudy four times on 12 dropbacks, a 33.3% target shared (Tillman 16.7%). As Phil noted, this is a small sample size, but we can see a clear divide in the target differential between quarterbacks following Watson's Achilles tear.
Ryan Weisse: Let's go to Cleveland's division rival. On top of the passing game getting a boost with Russell Wilson, the running backs should also see improvement, namely Najee Harris.
With Justin Fields, Harris was not seeing any meaningful work inside the ten-yard line. Fields had five rushing touchdowns, and Harris had none until Week 6. The one he scored with Fields, he had to break a long run.
In Week 7, the team scored a season-high in points, and Harris added another touchdown, his first inside the red zone. With Wilson, the team should be in the red zone more, and Harris will see these high-value touches.
Justin Howe: We saw again last week the ripple effect a new No. 1 receiver can have. Amari Cooper didn't make a huge splash on the stat sheet, though he did catch a red-zone touchdown. Perhaps the most impactful thing Cooper will eventually do is roll coverage away from explosive rookie Keon Coleman.
The young receiver exploited weak coverage last week with 4 catches and 125 yards. Coleman is a size/speed prospect who looked perfectly comfortable both winning downfield and galloping after the catch.
Khalil Shakir is a fine slot-only weapon, but he doesn't scare defenses down the field, nor really affect coverage fits at all. The presence of a true, proven outside playmaker will work wonders for him and for Coleman.
Joseph Haggan: I agree with Justin about Coleman. Cooper gives the Bills a legitimate WR1. Coleman was the defacto WR1 with Khalil Shakir before Cooper. The attention Cooper should get should lead to mismatches for Coleman. The Cooper addition may be the best for any offense this season.
Waldman: Thanks for reading. Check out the links below for all of this week's roundtable topics:
- Fantasy True or False
- Real or Fool's Gold, TE Edition
- Who Benefits From Recent Lineup Changes
- QBs Suffering Due to Other Injuries
Good luck!